It’s not a crush-job. but light amounts
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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
PARSONBROWN
Member
More than likely a few flurries light snow showers through out all of our areas. With dusting to inch somewhere. Seems plausible
Good grief dude
stephend122080
Member
A bit of an improvement and still have time for this to trend better
gives N NC light snow:Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk
stephend122080
Member
Certainly splits the difference in the gfs and the cmc
More energy rounding digging on the SW side of the trough to help pull out south and try to slow it down or negative tilt OR the lead wave to leave something behind to phase. As the euro stands there are major BL issues and it's really just a anafrontal band where the h7 trough is trailing sfc to 850.
We are really running out of room here with the initial trough/wave, the stronger wave/phaser and the kicker. That gives me concern that we aren't going to be able to round the corner and really get something high end and we are going to have to capitalize on what we may have which seems to be a band of precip falling into a column that's too warm initially but cooling
Hypsometric
Member
Huge differences between the Euro and RGEM at 84 hrs.
Euro has not reached a stable solution so we'll see where it lands.
Euro has not reached a stable solution so we'll see where it lands.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, it looks like the trend so far today is for the northern stream energy to dig further south west which is a good thing. Hopefully, we get more positive trends over the next 48 hours. There's still lots of variability, but the best region looks to be north/central Virginia which could score in several different scenarios with the stream interactions.
iGRXY
Member
Yet another system where models are having huge fluctuations as we get closer and closer to the short range. Really sad that they can’t even pin the pieces in a general location even at this lead.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I don’t mind where we stand in central nc. Euro is making wholesale changes each run and 12z was a nod towards the GFS. Everything is trending stronger with the northern stream. When that trend stops is the question
mydoortotheworld
Member
bouncycorn had it right from the beginning. The volcano broke the GFS
Is the CFS on crack or something? What the? It has a stronger followup wave giving wintry precip. late 2/14 into 2/15! ?
Keep in mind that the 12Z UK also does more wintry wise with a followup upper disturbance though nothing like this. Should a potential followup disturbance producing wintry precip on 2/14 be considered seriously?
12Z UKMET ? from followup upper disturbance:
Keep in mind that the 12Z UK also does more wintry wise with a followup upper disturbance though nothing like this. Should a potential followup disturbance producing wintry precip on 2/14 be considered seriously?
12Z UKMET ? from followup upper disturbance:
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rburrel2
Member
The good thing about the ukmet scenario is it would be high ratio powder with temps below freezing. I’ll root for that over the Ana front cold chasing moisture crap.
stephend122080
Member
It's the NAM, but it had a surface low north of the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hypsometric
Member
18z RGEM headed the wrong way.
Expecting a worse gfs run, kinda a outlier
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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It looks like the MJO will be in/near phase 3 during the weekend and early next week. Out of RDU's 12 biggest snowstorms since the MJO dailies started, 1/3 of the 12 storms were in a similar position, which isn't too shabby:
2/18/1979, 3/1-2/1980, 2/6/1984, and 12/9-10/2018
So, at the very least, I don't see the projected MJO, itself, as a negative factor.
2/18/1979, 3/1-2/1980, 2/6/1984, and 12/9-10/2018
So, at the very least, I don't see the projected MJO, itself, as a negative factor.
I could be wrong 
Lol it's handling this southern wave incredibly well and some people expect the models to be perfect at D7
ULT looking juicy
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Get that snow down to Atlanta and we would be in business.....
ULT delivered this run
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That run would’ve been better had we got to freezing. GFS is way too warm with that.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
ULT delivered this runView attachment 113217View attachment 113218View attachment 113219
Isn’t that what we had to rely on a couple weeks ago? And the gfs did horrible with it
Isn’t that what we had to rely on a couple weeks ago? And the gfs did horrible with it
Hmmm
Yep, did alright here with it, I’m willing to try again better then nothing I guess, just really depends on where the best CVA sets up with the H5 N/S vort
stephend122080
Member
Captain obvious here, but if there was more interaction with the surface low closer to the coast this would be a bigger deal. Still time for things to trend better, I'd say by Friday models should start to narrow down what's going to happen.
Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk
GEFS more meaty with the ULT 
stephend122080
Member
For comparison sake, here's Bernie's snow potential map
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D
Deleted member 609
Guest
This looks exactly like the "storm" we had 2 weeks ago
Ward Cleaver
Member
Same thing came to my mind. That one worked out for me. A weak ULL with marginal temps can occasionally overperform in my neck of the woods.
18z CMC looks worse 