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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

500hv.conus.png
 
GFS very close to my first guess I’m going to put out tonight if that’s ok! There is hope for our Raleigh viewers and Virginia folks. Unsure about the foothills but think it could be overdone there mostly non-accum.
 
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_84.png

If RGEM is right this is a significant snowstorm for many, sfc reflection looks like it was about to explode with precip. However with this look sfc temps become an issue for most people initially.
 
LukeBarrette said:
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_84.png

If RGEM is right this is a significant snowstorm for many, sfc reflection looks like it was about to explode with precip. However with this look sfc temps become an issue for most people initially.
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Yeah but with northern stream interaction and if you can get a bombing coastal, the column will crash with plenty of precip remaining... I'd take my chances.
 
Still almost looks as if the GEFS really just want that lee trough band to be the main deal .. I suppose it’s similar to what the GFS is doing but the GFS almost makes it look like a phase because it’s so close.. regardless it would be a quite intense band and would crash the Column nicely
 
BullCityWx said:
Regular Canadian has almost nothing
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Its a much different evolution to be fair, should be taken into consideration. Although kind've ridiculous how much different it is compared to its 00z run.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Something is wonky with its depiction. Looks good at 96 then at 102 goes poof. Don’t buy that at all
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12z CMC didn't have the northern stream wave as far southwest as the RGEM did either. It goes to show how this whole thing hinges on that northern wave being really strong but also remaining open for as long as possible to allow it to dive southward.

models-2022020912-f084.500hv.conus.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Problem is, the UK has been so bad the last several weeks that it hasn’t aligned with anything. Lol
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Yeah, this ain't a model that has anything figured out right now and I've always been a supporter of the UKMET w/ H5 patterns (it has always had the skill scores to back that up in the past too).

trend-ukmet-2022020912-f102.500hv.conus.gif
 
Ukmet was bad but still gives some some fun with the upper level feature .. at least it looks like there’s a lot of possibilities to score at least flakes in this set up
 
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