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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

18Z GFS looks like a no as it looks even slightly worse than the not good 12Z so far. Cold air push is even weaker than the 12Z. Without the good cold air pushes of the 0Z/6Z, the chances are not good for anything widespread. Hope the 0Z reverses that.
 
NC/TN can so much more easily get wintry precip than a place like ATL and the 18Z demonstrates that well as the run was pretty sucky overall. But even if I were in ATL-AHN areas, I wouldn’t yet be giving up on this as we’re still 5 days out, an eternity in the models world because they’re so undependable that far out. I still wouldn’t bet on anything, but wouldn’t bet anything near the farm on nothing either. The tandem of +PNA and prime time climo says give it at least through tomorrow’s runs to see if they’ll trend back to the glory of the 0Z, which literally gave the SE the most widespread winter storm of the winter so far. Those areas could surely use a better cold air push and the energy also with it like the 0Z/6Z had.
 
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GaWx said:
18Z GFS looks like a no as it looks even slightly worse than the not good 12Z so far. Cold air push is even weaker than the 12Z. Without the good cold air pushes of the 0Z/6Z, the chances are not good for anything widespread. Hope the 0Z reverses that.
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At least we have the weak lp, and the low is in Fla for a change....not in Ga, or off the coast, lol. Plenty of time to shape up. Climo wants it, the moles are thrumming, I have a new Mavic 3 I'm dying to fly over deep snow. Winter Olympics to remind me what a covering of fake snow looks like...all the portents are there.
 
dsaur said:
At least we have the weak lp, and the low is in Fla for a change....not in Ga, or off the coast, lol. Plenty of time to shape up. Climo wants it, the moles are thrumming, I have a new Mavic 3 I'm dying to fly over deep snow. Winter Olympics to remind me what a covering of fake snow looks like...all the portents are there.
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Tony,
If the moles are excited about the possibilities, I am excited! I’m not saying that should this come back from this run and end up an ATL area hit that it will be mainly sleet, but interestingly enough, a good portion of the best ATL sleets were in mid Feb:

- 2/12/2014: had nice sleet in Dunwoody, my 3rd biggest sleet ever (up to 1.5” some areas)
- 2/17-18/1979: who can forget this 4” sleet? One of my all time favorites!
- 2/15/1958: 1” of sleet along with ~2” of snow
- 2/14-15/1902: 1.75” of sleet
 
GaWx said:
If GSO gets something wintry of note from this, it would be their 6th within 6 weeks!
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If my area gets snow this weekend it’ll also be 6 snows that accumulated in 6 straight weeks. I still had patches of sleet this morning from Friday’s little system. That’s what 4 straight nights of 21 degrees or lower and even a small amount of sleet can do for you.
 
So no real excitement at the moment from KATL, like earlier AFD.


For now, GFS has backed off of the potential for
significant snow potential indicated in the previous run. The
ECMWF solution continues to indicate a weaker trough and less
moisture. Slight chance PoPs have been included in portions of
north and east Georgia to account for the possibility of wrap-
around precipitation. With temperatures forecast to drop to near
freezing early Sunday morning, so there is also a slight chance
for a light rain/snow mix in far north Georgia during that time.
 
bigstick10 said:
So no real excitement at the moment from KATL, like earlier AFD.


For now, GFS has backed off of the potential for
significant snow potential indicated in the previous run. The
ECMWF solution continues to indicate a weaker trough and less
moisture. Slight chance PoPs have been included in portions of
north and east Georgia to account for the possibility of wrap-
around precipitation. With temperatures forecast to drop to near
freezing early Sunday morning, so there is also a slight chance
for a light rain/snow mix in far north Georgia during that time.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I fell for the earlier one too. All I saw was “significant snow potential enhanced with a deformation axis by Sunday/Sunday night”.

Even though I read everything else on either side it… Including FFC specifically calling it an outlier… That glorious sentence was still all I came away with.

Oh well. Maybe someday it will happen. Someday…
 
Not cold enough. Not even close to cold enough in NC for the most part it appears. Referring to ICON.
 
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