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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

DopplerWx said:
i hate to beat a dead horse but if we had to draw up a map 4 days out this is exactly what you would want to see.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
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It would make a world of difference if the low was getting cranked up in the E Gulf instead of east of FL. 500mb evolution not allowing that to happen at the moment, but looking for baby steps as others have mentioned
 
I've seen January 2000 invoked a bit and I don't think that a solution like that is really on the table. A little more detail since it's the anniversary. That event involved highly specific synoptic features that allowed it to explode into "the" storm and weather forum folklore. The two factors I've learned about that allowed that storm to really blossom was 1. models mishandling elevated convection with the s/w and resulting latent heat and 2. the s/w being strong and tight enough to form an instant occlusion once it interacted with a stalled front off the coast. I think the instant occlusion point is something that gets lost- it's rare at this latitude. According to my old synoptics prof, in 2000 the first WFO to issue WSWs was the Washington DC office because they had someone in the office who had spent time forecasting in Alaska. Instant occlusions are more common in higher latitudes and have a distinct satellite appearance that the this forecaster was able to recognize and realize what was going on. We don't really have a strong baroclinic zone off the coast this go around and I generally think Jan 2000 redux is off the table (and i get that sounds like a "duh" statement, but there's legit synoptic reasoning behind that).
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BullCityWx said:
12z UKMET has a snow band that traverses anywhere from within 25 miles of a line, either side, from Lynchburg, VA to Georgetown, SC.

Yes, I also found that strange. Not much elsewhere.
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Ukmet dug deeper at 12z compared to its 0z. Its furtherst east when this is happening compared to all other models,\. Need it back a little further west.

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png
 
BullCityWx said:
12z UKMET has a snow band that traverses anywhere from within 25 miles of a line, either side, from Lynchburg, VA to Georgetown, SC.

Yes, I also found that strange. Not much elsewhere.
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This is that upper level feature that looks like it is almost getting swallowed up by our forming storm yes storm misses us but this is the feature that I believe will still give some in the SE a light snow event regardless.
 
Looks like the Midlands of SC and CSRA will be missing out on this event. You have to love where you're sitting at if you live from Raleigh and points east from there towards NE NC and SE VA. A earlier phase could mean even bigger snowfalls for these areas than what models are showing. Even places like the Outer Banks and areas as far south as Jacksonville NC ae currently in the game to see atleast some snow. Only if we push the trough a it futher west, Low develops around the eastern Gulf instead of Florida. That would put more areas in the game for snowfall.
 
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