• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

DopplerWx said:
i hate to beat a dead horse but if we had to draw up a map 4 days out this is exactly what you would want to see.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
Click to expand...
It would make a world of difference if the low was getting cranked up in the E Gulf instead of east of FL. 500mb evolution not allowing that to happen at the moment, but looking for baby steps as others have mentioned
 
I've seen January 2000 invoked a bit and I don't think that a solution like that is really on the table. A little more detail since it's the anniversary. That event involved highly specific synoptic features that allowed it to explode into "the" storm and weather forum folklore. The two factors I've learned about that allowed that storm to really blossom was 1. models mishandling elevated convection with the s/w and resulting latent heat and 2. the s/w being strong and tight enough to form an instant occlusion once it interacted with a stalled front off the coast. I think the instant occlusion point is something that gets lost- it's rare at this latitude. According to my old synoptics prof, in 2000 the first WFO to issue WSWs was the Washington DC office because they had someone in the office who had spent time forecasting in Alaska. Instant occlusions are more common in higher latitudes and have a distinct satellite appearance that the this forecaster was able to recognize and realize what was going on. We don't really have a strong baroclinic zone off the coast this go around and I generally think Jan 2000 redux is off the table (and i get that sounds like a "duh" statement, but there's legit synoptic reasoning behind that).
1643130857163.png
 
BullCityWx said:
12z UKMET has a snow band that traverses anywhere from within 25 miles of a line, either side, from Lynchburg, VA to Georgetown, SC.

Yes, I also found that strange. Not much elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Ukmet dug deeper at 12z compared to its 0z. Its furtherst east when this is happening compared to all other models,\. Need it back a little further west.

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png
 
BullCityWx said:
12z UKMET has a snow band that traverses anywhere from within 25 miles of a line, either side, from Lynchburg, VA to Georgetown, SC.

Yes, I also found that strange. Not much elsewhere.
Click to expand...
This is that upper level feature that looks like it is almost getting swallowed up by our forming storm yes storm misses us but this is the feature that I believe will still give some in the SE a light snow event regardless.
 
Looks like the Midlands of SC and CSRA will be missing out on this event. You have to love where you're sitting at if you live from Raleigh and points east from there towards NE NC and SE VA. A earlier phase could mean even bigger snowfalls for these areas than what models are showing. Even places like the Outer Banks and areas as far south as Jacksonville NC ae currently in the game to see atleast some snow. Only if we push the trough a it futher west, Low develops around the eastern Gulf instead of Florida. That would put more areas in the game for snowfall.
 
Last edited:
Faco Thomas said:
Looks like the Midlands of SC and CSRA will be missing out on this event. You have to love where you're sitting at if you live from Raleigh and points east from there towards NE NC and SE VA. A earlier phase could mean even bigger snowfalls for these areas than what models are showing. Even places like the Outer Banks and areas as far south as Jacksonville NC ae currently in the game to see atleast some snow. Only if we push the trough a it futher west, Low develops around the eastern Gulf instead of Florida. That would put more areas in the game for snowfall.
Click to expand...
I don’t think over. It’s unlikely sure just like any Winter weather event for us down this way. But I mean, the 18z a couple days ago shows what can happen if phase sooner & dig more. Trends as of now are in our favor. Get that thing to phase in the Eastern Gulf, and we got a chance. I think regardless we have wrap around moisture into Saturday
 
I really wish the wave moving through Iowa into the OV here had a little more power and dug more or the final wave moving into the lakes was west/faster/stronger. We are 2/3rds of the way to really bombing the base of the trough, closing this off, and pulling it south/west enough to really expand the precip shield west. Just not sure we can get theregfs_z500_vort_us_fh36-84.gif
 
Robert West said:
I don’t think over. It’s unlikely sure just like any Winter weather event for us down this way. But I mean, the 18z a couple days ago shows what can happen if phase sooner & dig more. Trends as of now are in our favor. Get that thing to phase in the Eastern Gulf, and we got a chance. I think regardless we have wrap around moisture into Saturday
Click to expand...
exactly. same way there is a reason we don't say it is a lock to get snow when we are in the bullseye 84 hours out. a lot can and will change.
 
SD said:
I really wish the wave moving through Iowa into the OV here had a little more power and dug more or the final wave moving into the lakes was west/faster/stronger. We are 2/3rds of the way to really bombing the base of the trough, closing this off, and pulling it south/west enough to really expand the precip shield west. Just not sure we can get thereView attachment 110357
Click to expand...
We have more than 2 days for a small couple of adjustments .. seems doable .. possibly an uphill battle but with the way models have performed recently it seems like a plausible possibility. I like that the ensembles still keep that option on the table at this range.
 
NCSNOW said:
Interested to see if 12z euro can get deeper than it did at 0z and/or inside to the left of this surface point. just 50-100 miles would be huge. It goes from 1001 to 983 in just 3-6 hours after this.

500h_mslp.conus.png
Click to expand...

We need more than 50-100 miles 150-200 for us back here in the western half of the state. It’s doable but not likely


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top