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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Winter storm warning and a high wind warning now. When do we start talking about a blizzard warning??? Lol.
 
All these last minute trends just to have that warm nose crush our dreams last minute and we see cold rain. I’m not falling for it. It’s gotten me to many times.

Well maybe one more time.
 
Was reviewing the H5 evolution and it seems the GFS is on an island by itself. It leaves a large portion of the shortwave parade diving down the backside of the east Pacific ridge, almost in Rex block fashion, trapped underneath it by hour 132.

View attachment 106118

Then you have the UKMET and the ICON, which both leave some of the energy behind further east in the 4 corners where it descends into Mexico.

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View attachment 106117

Then you have the Euro/CMC and yes, the Korean, which bring all the energy out.

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Just for giggles, can you post the KMA clown map?
 
A lot of people live in Winston-Salem and Greensboro but their local Mets have not been showing the ice threat much for those cities. I wish Moderate Risks and WPC in general were used more on TV versus showing the public the gfs snow map.
Might want to check out wfmy's page. They've got 5 or 6 mentions of either ice or possible power outages on front page alone.
 
4DC5D7B4-E1B4-4CE4-9C87-D0BE8B4F2DD0.jpegOMG? that chart is absolutely amazing for east AL. It has been relentless for that area. Totals are most likely a bit unreasonable but I cannot see that Warning not extending to at least Etowah, Blount, Cherokee and maybe parts of Cleburne and St Clair
 
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Rule #1. If you want snow you don’t want models modeling snow at day 5-6.

Yeah only a dusting here but 5 days ago we were sunny in the 40s today... We've been below freezing since last night. The storm didn't even start showing up for us til probably late Tuesday or Wednesday
 
I don't know how many times 5-10 days out I have seen clown maps show 12+ inches of snow here only to not even get a trace come a week later. After that debacle last February as well as this storm turning into a mixed bag, I feel like I can't have any legitimate hope until we get into NAM range.
 
I don't know how many times 5-10 days out I have seen clown maps show 12+ inches of snow here only to not even get a trace come a week later. After that debacle last February as well as this storm turning into a mixed bag, I feel like I can't have any legitimate hope until we get into NAM range.
You’re probably right but the fact that all of the major global models are agreeing on this 6 days out probably means something. Most definitely won’t be what ends up happening but it’s definitely something to watch even at this range.
 
Uusally,I would excited about all of the major models showing a major storm for the SE. However from all my years of model watching, you don't want models(espically those with cold bias or models with a east bias) already amping a system when we still have 5-6 days left. I see so many ways where this can go completely wrong and the next thing we know is that we're tracking a Western Deep South and/or Mid Atlantic winterstorm or another Miller A/B hybrid system. I would've liked if the models were trending in this direction 48-72 hours out after being suppressed(preferably around Cuba or somewhere around there). Maybe models move back towards suppresion tonight,but I'm getting quite nervous that this won't end well for the Carolinas.
 
I froze my balls off today . Disc golf in shorts my god. Brutal . Good friends, some pot , a fancy hand electric warmer , and a good time made it easy . Also , saw the craziest thing in the world in the middle of nowhere . A frickin Jamaican restaurant in what clearly used to be a country store . Way out in Franklin county . Very good food for a good price , for free cookies and mango chicken in addition to my order of jerk chicken . Wow. What a crazy find .
 
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Winter storms are some of the most beautiful looking systems out there.
 
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