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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

15z RAP:
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Snownut said:
You see the shape of that Red Area?? Yeah that should tell ya something

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What’s crazy is the UKIE has the ULL going over the upstate and has been steadfast in that. Some short range models are hinting at that as well and with this thing moving due south right now it makes that ULL track a possibility. Those totals include ice as well so how much of that is snow idk.
 
The original high for my location in Paulding was 50 but I'm setting at 41 with a 4-5 MPH E and overcast we only have about 4 more hours of peak warm up we shall see if we hit projected high and just how that CAD looks over ATL extending westward
 
NCSNOW said:
Grit when you see this post, SD. What are your thoughts on Rah wording 40mph gust in AFD? Surely the models are making them state this or do they feel that way using old school meteorology, calculations.
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East of the mtns, think it makes sense that the winds will be significant though nothing crazy. Pressures / Heights are dropping at all levels as the wave bottoms out and then moves up into the Carolinas

First Loop: top center of image shows the tightening pressure gradient in the damming region

Second Loop: shows the strengthening sfc winds as the storm moves thru (also wild is how it goes to dead calm at the end)

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Critical updates 1pm EST on Winter Storm Izzy. 1) WPC issues Moderate Risk for NC due to ice 2) WebberWeather tweeted he is lowering snow/sleet with next map and going with ice 3) Cities like Winston-Salem are now facing a major ice storm which got lost in the messaging due to backyard Mets on FB calling for snow
 
42 and steady here in the southern Triad. Hope those cold dewpoints and temps blow in soon. Praying for more sleet then ice but believe this area might be in for some bad frz rn and power outages.
 
malak05 said:
The original high for my location in Paulding was 50 but I'm setting at 41 with a 4-5 MPH E and overcast we only have about 4 more hours of peak warm up we shall see if we hit projected high and just how that CAD looks over ATL extending westward
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Out here in Paulding Dallas area. … Do we stand a better chance of the frozen precept starting earlier or, lasting longer if our high temperature stays lower than expected ?
 
I don’t necessarily think that potential busting of high temps today = early winter precip in the Atlanta area. It certainly can’t help us to be a few degrees closer, but I think it really comes down to how the wedge drives in this evening. That will tell the story imo. 3K NAM seems to have a good handle on temps so far which is funny cause in the short term it’s colder than the HRRR but long term it’s warmer tonight.
 
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