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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

malak05 said:
I'll say this watching the Water Vapor compared to the models definitely for now the trajectory seems more S as models have it turning before getting into texas and curving and just hitting the NE corner of Texas as it moves eastwardly
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Noticed that too… continues due south. Crossing OK/TX border now
 
Grit when you see this post, SD. What are your thoughts on Rah wording 40mph gust in AFD? Surely the models are making them state this or do they feel that way using old school meteorology, calculations.
 
Kinda crazy that mount airy and Wilkesboro went from 12” snow amounts to 1-3”. Gonna be a lot of sleet and ice moving in from east to west. NWS has now added quarter inch of ice into Surry/Wilkes. If anyone is gonna bust I think it’s NWS GSP they have hickory/Statesville close to 2” snow but have resisted cutting totals further south-west. They have way too much snow around Asheville imo.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Cashiers to lake toxaway looking like the sweet spot. Elevation on there side as well. @Parker sitting pretty. Look at this accums forecast ? View attachment 105941
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I am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
 
I think some of those MPING reports have dandruff. I’ve been out working on my deck all morning and seen nary a bit of precipitation. Went to bojangles earlier and you could see the Virga but that’s it.
 
north georgia
271986013_4726319270738120_8244198273947320404_n.jpg
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

.UPDATE...

Short term trends are looking pretty good. Have made some minor
tweaks to afternoon highs and hourly temperatures across portions
of northwest and all of central Georgia based upon the clouds,
and across northeast Georgia based upon temperatures advecting
into the area due to the wedge.

For tonight, we have added Dade, Walker and Chattooga counties to
the Winter Storm Warning based upon increased snow accumulations
we are now expecting in those areas. We continue to monitor this
unfolding situation and will add additional counties if necessary
with future forecast updates.
 
Brad P. 11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. I feel like a broken record but all I'm hearing is people ask and talk about snow. That's, not this storm it's a winter storm with a focus on the ice. Please ignore national non-local automated apps and sources showing crazy snow totals all week. This is an ice set-up pure and simple. Here's the latest. #cltwx #ncw #scwx #wcnc
 
tarheels2 said:
Is this good or bad for west ga
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The further south that depicts the low getting into Texas to the Gulf the better it doesn't prevent the Low from cutting thru GA like it has been but the further south that is in the south and the longer it will take for it to cut and also can make you wonder if models just are missing something
 
Parker said:
I am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
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Ya’ll be safe. Luckily this cabin has a fireplace so if worse comes to worse we’re sleeping by the fire for a couple nights. Also have cast iron skillets for cooking. Also lots of locals live nearby so there will be plenty of help if needed. I see a small window of opportunity for sleet to mix in around lunchtime for about and hour as that low makes the transfer. Other than that it looks like we’re sitting in the middle of Poundtown, USA. Good luck buddy.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Just for my own edification, what do you consider it’s range?
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Around 12 hours is usually when I start looking at it. It takes in real time info and constantly runs so you can see changes pretty quick. Still outside it’s range in the western Carolinas but further west you’re starting to get more into its range. Oddly enough the FV3 short range also has the cold core coming over the upstate and drops a lot more snow on the backend through Georgia and along and west of 77.
 
malak05 said:
The further south that depicts the low getting into Texas to the Gulf the better it doesn't prevent the Low from cutting thru GA like it has been but the further south that is in the south and the longer it will take for it to cut and also can make you wonder if models just are missing something
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One reason why it raises my eyebrows at some of the shorter range stuff nudging the ULL further east. That really helps on the backend where you could crank out an additional 1-3” in a lot of places. If the ULL continues south then that’s something to watch
 
iGRXY said:
Around 12 hours is usually when I start looking at it. It takes in real time info and constantly runs so you can see changes pretty quick. Still outside it’s range in the western Carolinas but further west you’re starting to get more into its range. Oddly enough the FV3 short range also has the cold core coming over the upstate and drops a lot more snow on the backend through Georgia and along and west of 77.
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NAM and HRRR both have the back end sputtering out by the time the ULL gets through NGA. Not ideal.


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jrips27 said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

.UPDATE...

Short term trends are looking pretty good. Have made some minor
tweaks to afternoon highs and hourly temperatures across portions
of northwest and all of central Georgia based upon the clouds,
and across northeast Georgia based upon temperatures advecting
into the area due to the wedge.

For tonight, we have added Dade, Walker and Chattooga counties to
the Winter Storm Warning based upon increased snow accumulations
we are now expecting in those areas. We continue to monitor this
unfolding situation and will add additional counties if necessary
with future forecast updates.
Click to expand...
FFC is ina tough spot on this one. I dont envy them one bit.
 
Parker said:
I am actually a little bit nervous, but this is like a dream for me to be in a storm like this. The driveway here is straight up and I did not see that in the pictures. I just do not see how we will be able to leave monday! I look forward to keeping everyone updated. Jimmy, I think we both see a lot.
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Pick up some rock salt and cat litter. My driveway in my old house in Sandy Springs would stay covered after everything else had melted. Easier to walk up backward than forward because it was so steep. I used every salt in the house to melt. The different color margarita salt looked lovely
 
ATLwxfan said:
NAM and HRRR both have the back end sputtering out by the time the ULL gets through NGA. Not ideal.


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Yet, a Met from the other board just posted:

Both the 12Z RGEM and NAM now show a more solidified and organized area of snow behind the 500 low over ERN AL and NRN GA...it never made sense to me how disorganized and showery it was looking yesterday but models even in 2022 tend to struggle with precip intensity and coverage behind closed 500 lows in the SRN US because typically the surface feature is not yet well developed or is weak. They'll never underestimate those parameters in New England or the Great Lakes because often times by then the surface low is deep and organized and the system is more mature. I think places like Rome on east could see several inches.
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NE US temperatures are every bit as frigid as forecasted, if not 1-2 colder. This is an uncommonly very cold patent high. If the wedge comes on gangbusters all the way into ATL tonight, look out as the warmer models with high 30s would bust hard. 850s are still not forecasted to exceed +4, which is friendly toward ZR when the wedge is strong and precip is ample/steady.

More on the NE: the current cold is easily the coldest since January/Feb of 2019. It is now a mere 9 in Boston (high only near 15), 14 in NYC (high only near 21), and 21 in Philly (high near 24). So, the upcoming CAD is going to be fueled by the coldest parent high in 3 years. Will it be tapped enough all the way to ATL? Watch trends this afternoon for hints.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
This map needs to be emphasized more just about all guidance has shifted this way because of sleet and ZR. View attachment 105947
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Updated GSP afd says that is incorrect:

“The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward.”
 
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