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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

RollTide18 said:
NAM still showing wraparound show in Alabama fwiw. Still not understanding how part of North Alabama get rain and parts of South Alabama get snow


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Marginal BL probably ptype driven and its possible by the point there is a good amount of cold wrapped S and SW of the system
 
ontherocks said:
Is there a certain temp/dew at a certain time you would like to see for DAH to really get in on all that HRRR snow? Or does surface temp matter less still cause of WAA? I’m wondering how you will be tracking this in real time?
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In this situation I'm my interested in how warm we get today. The strong CAD doesn't arrive until later tonight so if we get into the upper 40s then it will take longer to switch to snow if we ever do. Thankfully we are covered in clouds and precip is streaming in from the west cooling the upper levels. So right now it looks good. Inside 12 hours my go to is the HRRR which does great at capturing precip types from my experience. I've rarely seen it stay snow when it shows the warm nose invading.
 
MichaelJ said:
Not much really, the key point is where it will pivot to go North
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It does matter more to the Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia crew though. In any case, it's fascinating to watch the bowling ball we've all been glued to the models watching every panel in the flesh.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It does matter more to the Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia crew though. In any case, it's fascinating to watch the bowling ball we've all been glued to the models watching every panel in the flesh.
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Yeah….if that baby could hold off on taking that N turn until it’s near the coast it could be glory for us in the I20 corridor and Atl metro!!!
 
MichaelJ said:
Not much really, the key point is where it will pivot to go North
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The key is whether it takes a parabolic path around the trough or whether it makes a hard left at Montgomery, AL and if it pulls the lower level low pressure and 850 mb low over the Apps. If that still evolves, we have much more warm air advancing north and west.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
In this situation I'm my interested in how warm we get today. The strong CAD doesn't arrive until later tonight so if we get into the upper 40s then it will take longer to switch to snow if we ever do. Thankfully we are covered in clouds and precip is streaming in from the west cooling the upper levels. So right now it looks good. Inside 12 hours my go to is the HRRR which does great at capturing precip types from my experience. I've rarely seen it stay snow when it shows the warm nose invading.
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It looks like some of those 4,000 peaks in the Rich Wilderness may be getting a few flakes mixing in. We are all virga right now and the temp has not deviated much over the past couple of hours (41.4/29).
 

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DixieBlizzard said:
It looks like some of those 4,000 peaks in the Rich Wilderness may be getting a few flakes mixing in. We are all virga right now and the temp has not deviated much over the past couple of hours (41.4/29).
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It wouldn't surprise me a bit. I'm 39.0 and holding steady wind is out of the East. I also have a station on Beech mountain at 4700 ft and the wind is still from the West. Once that thing flips East you know strong CAD is on the way.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Yeah….if that baby could hold off on taking that N turn until it’s near the coast it could be glory for us in the I20 corridor and Atl metro!!!
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The further SE of the modeled track through Georgia, even 50 miles or so, the better. That would keep the surface low a bit further SE reinforcing the wedge which is critical for our area on the periphery.
 
The lack of cold air now on cams should be very concerning for people in the midsouth. Seems to be getting warmer and warmer. Could be why memphis hasn’t pulled the plug and issued a warning
 
I was hoping to get 1-2 hours snow when this starts, 3 I would be estatic, before the flip to sleet. Looking at models It appears we will start as just plain sleet. No sweat/ debate surface will stay below freezing the entire event. That is set in stone. Concern is real for a .5+ ice accrual. Much higher than yesterday when I thought sleet would win out and strong winds might have a chance to offset a heavy buildup. Ill look at 925mb tonight, see about timing the sleet to frzng rn switch. If your on 85 corridir from charlotte to Triad to NC/VA line, .4-.75 ice accrual is gonna be the Norm unfortunately.
You get .5 its manageable, but not with Raleigh saying gust to 40mph its a bad recipe for widespread power outages, not run of the mill.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The further SE of the modeled track through Georgia, even 50 miles or so, the better. That would keep the surface low a bit further SE reinforcing the wedge which is critical for our area on the periphery.
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Yes! If we can deepen/reinforce the CAD it might even support less zr and more ip or even sn for our region
 
Slight change from me, Wilkes/Surry 1-3” snow and ice. Damaging ice storm near and just east of i77. Crippling ice Yadkinville, Davie, Winston, Statesville. 3-6” snow mtns and ice but 6-12” above 3,500ft near beech MTN.
 
malak05 said:
I'll say this watching the Water Vapor compared to the models definitely for now the trajectory seems more S as models have it turning before getting into texas and curving and just hitting the NE corner of Texas as it moves eastwardly
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Is this good or bad for west ga
 
tractor girl said:
It means that your backyard would potentially see more snow if the storm continues to track South then east
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Potentially means a stronger CAD and more frozen into the metro. What this means for the ULL I’m not too sure.


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