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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

The soundings on the 18z GFS are really close for the CLT metro, especially with a lot of the area being within the 540 line.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even with the rap it’s ticking NW away from a better event for most of NC, it’s sucks but that’s a harsh reality of last minute NW trends, I’m here hoping for something under the ULL at this point View attachment 100782
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Looks generally better for those further west but not so much for you guys in the Carolinas. Run to run changes seem to still be decently high so taking one run as the end all result is probably not the best idea. I will say that run is the best for those in GA vs the GFS and EURO runs. I guarantee a different image will come out of the 0Z runs until tomorrow morning or afternoon.
 
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that most of NC sees snow falling out of this storm, accumulations if there are any are a whole different story. Given what I've seen on the 18z GFS which seems to be the most egregious when it comes to the NW trend so far, a flizzard is likely unless something goes wrong with the deformation band/ULL.
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that most of NC sees snow falling out of this storm, accumulations if there are any are a whole different story. Given what I've seen on the 18z GFS which seems to be the most egregious when it comes to the NW trend so far, a flizzard is likely unless something goes wrong with the deformation band/ULL.
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Yeah unless we NW trend this into the SNE lol, there’s gonna at least be snowflakes on the backside given a more amped solution tugging down CAA, but the slim chances of accumulating snow outside the mountains or N Piedmont which was already low is getting lower
 
We do have separation between the two systems with a boundary starting to take shape working east through NC, no inclination of gulf tap with upper level moisture tail dragging.522B53C8-0F7A-455F-B821-89FD62889C7D.png18A190F1-2D1A-4646-85C9-42DAAB787848.png60B8B2DC-8026-453F-AB17-CED6EDD70980.png
 
Is there another model with the sfc low asvstrikg and as far NW as the 18z gfs? I didn't see it when I looked really quick. I'll be interested in the 18z euro
 
SD said:
Is there another model with the sfc low asvstrikg and as far NW as the 18z gfs? I didn't see it when I looked really quick. I'll be interested in the 18z euro
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Rap and RGEM were more NW as well
 
I think the Atlantic ridge out front will emphasize the nw trend even more. Hate to see WAR but that's usually what we deal with. Helps to Amp the system but when the track is already bad, it makes it worse. This needs to be way south to help clt.

I'm in the high country so hate to say I'm rooting for amped this time. :confused:
 
Significant forcing on the lee side with BC’s HR RGEM graphic, ^ 2 or 3 different foci with upper lever perturbations noted. Kuchera adds value.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah unless we NW trend this into the SNE lol, there’s gonna at least be snowflakes on the backside given a more amped solution tugging down CAA, but the slim chances of accumulating snow outside the mountains or N Piedmont which was already low is getting lower
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Yeah… the only time that I can remember accumulating snow in CLT metro with a low track right over head was the ‘93 Superstorm and this obviously isn’t anywhere close to that. I tend to think with this that the dynamics will be strong enough and CAA looks to be right for most of us to see flakes in the air… which is definitely a win given the dumpster fire pattern we’re coming out of
 
BC’s graphic, HR RGEM, kudos. Foci is area of interest, note circular patterns around them, this should in some ways congeal, it’s not accurate verbatim, that’s all I am saying. I don’t think we have an 850 track nailed down yet and that’s where we need to start looking. Soundings clearly support a steep crash, really ATL CLT HAT, likely just south of that at the mid levels.
 
Poimen said:
Clown maps are almost always atrocious. How much more now after days-on-end of temps in the 70s and surface temps never reaching freezing during the window of possible snowfall?
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Rates can and will overcome, Kernersville is actually a solid spot right now in central NC, Roxboro obviously better, but it’s not really far and along a similar axis given the setup.
 
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