Well they are snowFALL not accumulationsNice to think about and track but ground temps and the speed of the system are two huge negatives for areas to the west . The snow maps are wrong plain and simple
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well they are snowFALL not accumulationsNice to think about and track but ground temps and the speed of the system are two huge negatives for areas to the west . The snow maps are wrong plain and simple
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Amazing how such small shifts can change things. VA was not in the game a few runs ago.RAP looks better for the north CLT metro/western Piedmont/NW Piedmont into the triad due to the upper level low moving over, more then anywhere else now in NC outside east of the mountains View attachment 100777View attachment 100778View attachment 100780
Highway 278 and north storm. I do see a lot people getting issued a winter weather advisory for black ice on bridges and dusting of snow.RAP looks better for the north CLT metro/western Piedmont/NW Piedmont into the triad due to the upper level low moving over, more then anywhere else now in NC outside east of the mountains View attachment 100777View attachment 100778View attachment 100780
Looks generally better for those further west but not so much for you guys in the Carolinas. Run to run changes seem to still be decently high so taking one run as the end all result is probably not the best idea. I will say that run is the best for those in GA vs the GFS and EURO runs. I guarantee a different image will come out of the 0Z runs until tomorrow morning or afternoon.Even with the rap it’s ticking NW away from a better event for most of NC, it’s sucks but that’s a harsh reality of last minute NW trends, I’m here hoping for something under the ULL at this point View attachment 100782
Since GSP is watching ensemble members for their forecast at this range for some reason, they’ll have to tick up their forecast.The GEFS mean was a large increase.
View attachment 100790
Yeah unless we NW trend this into the SNE lol, there’s gonna at least be snowflakes on the backside given a more amped solution tugging down CAA, but the slim chances of accumulating snow outside the mountains or N Piedmont which was already low is getting lowerI'm gonna go out on a limb and say that most of NC sees snow falling out of this storm, accumulations if there are any are a whole different story. Given what I've seen on the 18z GFS which seems to be the most egregious when it comes to the NW trend so far, a flizzard is likely unless something goes wrong with the deformation band/ULL.
Well they are snowFALL not accumulations
What happened to the imagination. LolToo bad they aren't used for that purpose . People post them and expect that amount to show up
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That was….strange at best. I understand ensembles up to 4 days out but 48 hours?Since GSP is watching ensemble members for their forecast at this range for some reason, they’ll have to tick up their forecast.
Rap and RGEM were more NW as wellIs there another model with the sfc low asvstrikg and as far NW as the 18z gfs? I didn't see it when I looked really quick. I'll be interested in the 18z euro
996 over hky?Rap and RGEM were more NW as well
Yeah for real. I wasn’t even taking a dig at GSP overall, just that they’re usually better than that.That was….strange at best. I understand ensembles up to 4 days out but 48 hours?
Did you mean Danville and Lynchburg, VA ?Looks like points north of Danville, NC and better yet Lynchburg, NC to see snow on the ground.
RGEM and Rap were hovering around 1002 I think996 over hky?
Did you mean Danville and Lynchburg, VA ?
Yeah… the only time that I can remember accumulating snow in CLT metro with a low track right over head was the ‘93 Superstorm and this obviously isn’t anywhere close to that. I tend to think with this that the dynamics will be strong enough and CAA looks to be right for most of us to see flakes in the air… which is definitely a win given the dumpster fire pattern we’re coming out ofYeah unless we NW trend this into the SNE lol, there’s gonna at least be snowflakes on the backside given a more amped solution tugging down CAA, but the slim chances of accumulating snow outside the mountains or N Piedmont which was already low is getting lower
Good thing I can claim Roanoke….No, just my dry as a NAM sounding humor. The only way one gets snow in NC out of the mountains is to claim VA towns as ours.
Rates can and will overcome, Kernersville is actually a solid spot right now in central NC, Roxboro obviously better, but it’s not really far and along a similar axis given the setup.Clown maps are almost always atrocious. How much more now after days-on-end of temps in the 70s and surface temps never reaching freezing during the window of possible snowfall?
I try to only use the kuchera but it’s still off likely in this scenario.Significant forcing on the lee side with BC’s HR RGEM graphic, ^ 2 or 3 different foci with upper lever perturbations noted. Kuchera adds value.