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Pattern Januworry

FC9CC4BE-2783-4041-B125-61D9607432F1.gifHow can a cold lover in the SE not like this GEFS trend of today in the PNA? This is the best it has looked in a long time with it now turning positive in the means late. Also, I’m really interested in how strong a -PNA December will end up at. This sure looks like a top 10 Dec -PNA and quite possibly is top 5 (since 1950).
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Wouldn't call it a pattern change. This would definitely be a needle threader. Well timed wave in between two massive ridges and a very marginal cold air source. That could happen anytime in winter in any regime.
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This is definitely a pattern change, not sure what you’re talking about
 
GaWx said:
View attachment 100283How can a cold lover in the SE not like this GEFS trend of today in the PNA? This is the best it has looked in a long time with it now turning positive in the means late. Also, I’m really interested in how strong a -PNA December will end up at. This sure looks like a top 10 Dec -PNA and quite possibly is top 5 (since 1950).
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It was top 2 December -PNA as of Dec 20. Might be strongest ever
 
You know in retrospect the models never seem to give it all back at once. Seems a bit more gradual. But maybe more rewarding


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Let’s just hope there’s some qpf coming down the road. As much as we needed a pattern change for temps, we also need a change regarding precip - at least here in central NC.
TW
 
Because December was so ridiculously warm (3rd warmest on record many places in SE) and much of at least the first half of a January looks so much colder than December, we’re likely going to be looking at a top 10 coolings in the SE US from Dec to Jan, possibly resembling the massive cooling from Dec 2015 to Jan 2016, which was the 3rd largest cooling at KATL among other places. This was driven by a large increase in the PNA to 2nd most positive in January on record, which was helped by the MJO. The largest there was from Dec 1984 to Jan 1985 (accompanied by THE largest rise in the PNA from Dec to Jan on record and helped by the MJO) followed by Dec 1939 to Jan 1940.

MJO: Dec 2015 warmer phases

8B7E6D38-B3E0-48FD-B13C-E25F7CC7771E.jpeg


MJO: Jan 2016 vastly improved from Dec in colder phases helping lead to large increase in PNA:

98DF5CB5-6C06-43A5-94E6-004727D2C6E1.jpeg



MJO: Dec of 1984 warmer phases:

39AD98AC-CBB9-42E6-A293-B0926678A93F.jpeg


MJO: Jan of 1985 vastly improved from December in colder phases helping to lead to largest Dec to Jan increase in PNA on record:

6A08C2F2-AB61-4C20-9926-AFF5B8982FE3.jpeg
 
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