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Pattern Januworry

Because December was so ridiculously warm (3rd warmest on record many places in SE) and much of at least the first half of a January looks so much colder than December, we’re likely going to be looking at a top 10 coolings in the SE US from Dec to Jan, possibly resembling the massive cooling from Dec 2015 to Jan 2016, which was the 3rd largest cooling at KATL among other places. This was driven by a large increase in the PNA to 2nd most positive in January on record, which was helped by the MJO. The largest there was from Dec 1984 to Jan 1985 (accompanied by THE largest rise in the PNA from Dec to Jan on record and helped by the MJO) followed by Dec 1939 to Jan 1940.

MJO: Dec 2015 warmer phases

8B7E6D38-B3E0-48FD-B13C-E25F7CC7771E.jpeg


MJO: Jan 2016 vastly improved from Dec in colder phases helping lead to large increase in PNA:

98DF5CB5-6C06-43A5-94E6-004727D2C6E1.jpeg



MJO: Dec of 1984 warmer phases:

39AD98AC-CBB9-42E6-A293-B0926678A93F.jpeg


MJO: Jan of 1985 vastly improved from December in colder phases helping to lead to largest Dec to Jan increase in PNA on record:

6A08C2F2-AB61-4C20-9926-AFF5B8982FE3.jpeg
 
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