• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GeorgiaGirl said:
It's not really scientifically based at all, but I'm simply not buying at all the idea of Jose staying a weak hurricane for as long as the models suggest...if he's a moderate TS or weaker in the next 1-2 days we're going to see some shifting west if/when the models figure it out (perhaps still enough to keep Maria away from the US)...and even still, this hurricane is going to affect countries that DON'T need it at all.

But this has been the season that goes against typical, so maybe Jose does do this and Maria stays off shore for us...
Click to expand...

The fact the ensemble suites agree is a good sign. I just looked back over the ensembles, and the GFS only had one member getting into the Southeast. The Canadian had a few more, but it's the Canadian. Here is where we are at currently ensemble wise:

Canadian:
15_L_geps_12z.png


Euro:
AL15_2017091800_ECENS_large.png



GFS:
AL15_2017091818_GEFS_large.png
 
Started to say im sure there are people out there from the islands, Puerto Rico or maybe traveling that may read our post. How long has it been since Puerto Rico took a direct hit from a Maj hurricane?
 
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
stormcentral said:
Started to say im sure there are people out there from the islands, Puerto Rico or maybe traveling that may read our post. How long has it been since Puerto Rico took a direct hit from a Maj hurricane?
Click to expand...
From our data, we get views from all over the entire world. People convert our page into their language to read also.
 
Jose is looking very much a mess tonight, is the beginning of it's demise? Certainly hope not but he's looking sick not too much like the protector of the east coast at the moment.... who knows what tomorrow's 12z model runs will bring with Maria's track
 
metwannabe said:
Jose is looking very much a mess tonight, is the beginning of it's demise? Certainly hope not but he's looking sick not too much like the protector of the east coast at the moment.... who knows what tomorrow's 12z model runs will bring with Maria's track
Click to expand...

It won't take much of a weakness to keep her ots.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The Navgem has an upper lvl low over the se that the other models don't have.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
The Navgem has an upper lvl low over the se that the other models don't have.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The one that eventually tugged Irma to Tennessee , was off and on the models and finally stayed on models about 2-4 days out!
 
The signal of a possible upper level low has been on the GFS ensembles, but most of the members agree that Jose would have more influence over Maria than the upper level low. In other words, we would need it to be much stronger if it exists at all.
 
Shawn said:
The signal of a possible upper level low has been on the GFS ensembles, but most of the members agree that Jose would have more influence over Maria than the upper level low. In other words, we would need it to be much stronger if it exists at all.
Click to expand...

This is exactly why I can't board on the OTS train yet. We've been down this road before with Irma at roughly the same time frame and we saw how that went for us. There's just too many ?s and headaches wrt Jose to make sense of and whether or not this ULL will become a more prominent/stronger feature in future model runs/ensembles.

Speaking of Maria, I'm away for about 5 hours and come back to a Cat. 5 BEAST?! Jeebus! I don't know if Maria is reaching her peak before PR, but is it possible she could get down as low as 900mb by that point? Assuming Maria avoids an ERC between now and then.
 
The flooding from where the surge is meeting what has to be flash flooding coming down mtns as high as 4,000 ft has to be epic on the east side of this island atm.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
This is exactly why I can't board on the OTS train yet. We've been down this road before with Irma at roughly the same time frame and we saw how that went for us. There's just too many ?s and headaches wrt Jose to make sense of and whether or not this ULL will become a more prominent/stronger feature in future model runs/ensembles.

Speaking of Maria, I'm away for about 5 hours and come back to a Cat. 5 BEAST?! Jeebus! I don't know if Maria is reaching her peak before PR, but is it possible she could get down as low as 900mb by that point? Assuming Maria avoids an ERC between now and then.
Click to expand...

I do not think we will get below 900 millibars in the entire life of Maria. The sea temperatures aren't bad, but eyewall replacement cycle (which we just can't forecast) is bound to happen sooner than later, along with land interaction with the higher mountains over Dominica (enough to likely disrupt her strengthening).

With that said, I am not sure of the tropical cyclone intensity celiling in her current area. Webber would be the better one to ask about that.
 
Her small core has definitely been affected by Dominica. Once she exits there's still a window of opportunity for restrengthening but she's going to be in a whole different environment than Irma was once she crossed the islands to the north. The gulf atm is just off limits as long as that ridge is in place. In the short term she really has no place to go but towards the northern Antilles. Once she gets/if north of there in 2-3 days then things get a little more complex and a lot can happen. Once again, as with Irma we're not dealing with very prominent features to pull this thing OTS. There's nothing really strong down the pipe atm that convinces me of an OTS track. Without the presence of a really dominant steering feature all bets are off imo.
 
Took a significant north turn across the Dominica, taking the "longest" path across the island but she's about to emerge off the NW coast now
 
I'm not ruling out a US hit until at least it clears Hispanola on Thursday... right now I'm about 50/50 on it

Still think even if it recurves its gonna be real close to the OBX

I have my doubts about Jose but it wouldn't take much to still recurve but at the same time I wanna see how far southwest she gets by Thursday too
 
Last edited:
Gonna be in Jersey City, NJ next week.. could be a little windy and wet!
 
metwannabe said:
Took a significant north turn across the Dominica, taking the "longest" path across the island but she's about to emerge off the NW coast now
Click to expand...
Think that jog caught recon off guard also. looked like they were aiming for the SW side of the island and had to make a last minute go around to come back at it from the NE lol.
 
00z GFS has Jose holding on longer so far. Maria takes the Northward turn, but ridging and Jose being quite a ways from her is making me nervous.
 
GFS going north of Puerto Rico again, does anyone really believe this is realistic??

okay that's a lot of ridging at 162 and Jose seems far away and a non-factor

oh magically a path to recurve opens at 180 :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
GFS going north of Puerto Rico again, does anyone really believe this is realistic??

okay that's a lot of ridging at 162 and Jose seems far away and a non-factor

oh magically a path to recurve opens at 180 :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I can't see how it will be north of PR
 
The 0Z GEFS is even less threatening than the pretty nonthreatening 18Z GEFS with very few landfalling members at most. Mr. Jose is setting himself up for a great opportunity to be a hero for the SE coast. It it still early but seeing these last 2 GEFS runs as well as the last EPS run is certainly encouraging and is keeping the worry level way down right now.
 
From pro-met "Alyono" at Storm2K, who I think gives a good current take on Maria's future track:

"models are hinting that the building ridge may not matter. May be enough of a weakness to allow this to stay safely off the east coast. I'd say this is the most likely scenario. Jose may have to scoot far to the east in order for this to hit now (of course, the models do seem to be trending Jose to the east)"
 
UKMET OTS too, I think I'm slowly coming around but I'm still giving it a couple of days.

although it initializes with Jose "strong" and Maria "moderate";)

At least it looks like there's a fall front next week, its about time
 
The 0Z GEPS has 3 members hit the SE US, including one hitting Miami before moving up the spine similar to Irma. However, the 3 is a good bit lower than the # of hits from the 12Z GEPS...so less threatening than its prior run.

Well, we're not too far from when the King gives us his opinion to cap off the late night model barrage. Any guesses? I can't wait til DST ends lol. There should be a law that DST has to cease immediately once the active part of the tropical season starts lol.
 
Reports on facebook of total devestation at Dominica. Every roof TORN OFF. this was posted by the PM on facebook. Prayers...
Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.

So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside.

Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.

I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating...indeed, mind boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.

We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.

It is too early to speak of the condition of the air and seaports, but I suspect both will be inoperable for a few days. That is why I am eager now to solicit the support of friendly nations and organisations with helicopter services, for I personally am eager to get up and get around the country to see and determine what's needed.
Click to expand...
 
down to 155, below a 5 for now

Pressure was up to 946 mb(21 mb rise) the first pass then dropped to 943 before recon left
 
Looking good, folks! The 0Z Euro recurves Maria and she doesn't get closer to the SE US coast than about 400 miles, which is off NC. Thank you, Jose (well, hopefully).
 
It's definitely OTS now; all models agree. All the ridge is going to do is slow it down on as it follows Jose.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top