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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria (1 Viewer)

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#1
An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 9.25.23 AM.png
 

Storm5

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#2
An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
View attachment 1225
00z Euro

06z gfs


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whatalife

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#4
I guess to say things are active is a bit of an understatement. I think this one has legs


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#13
yeah looks like Jose hanging around so long allows Maria to recurve east of the US on the GFS

The previous 2 runs got close to FL before hitting GA/SC
 

GaWx

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#15
Regardless of what the various model runs show for 96L, the model consensus has a strong upper high over or near the NE US holding for a few days around days 8-11, which would be about the time 96L would probably be approaching the longitude of the US east coast. This is the kind of setup that makes the SE US potentially vulnerable for a landfall from the Atlantic underneath the high. Translation: no protective trough is suggested then meaning 96L appears to be at least a risk to the SE US at this early stage should it actually become a TC.
 
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#18
945 mb south of Puerto Rico at 144, 30 mb! stronger than last run

936 mb about to hit the Shredder but thats a major hurricane easily

Edit barely hits the eastern tip of the Shredder and is still a significant hurricane moving into the Bahamas at 192
 
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#28
GFS all in with a major hurricane near Puerto Rico the same time Jose is hitting New England next week

Looks like it will come down to what Jose does, if he hangs around he leaves the door open for 96L/Maria to recurve and miss the US

If he just recurves and leaves quickly then Maria probably threatens the US

Or the GFS hangs a dying Jose out near NYC which leaves a path for Maria to hit NYC
 
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#29
UKMET intensifies 96L into a category 2, 973mb hurricane and is just north of the Leeward Islands in 6 days


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.1N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2017 48 13.1N 51.1W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.6N 53.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 18.09.2017 72 14.2N 55.1W 1003 37
1200UTC 18.09.2017 84 14.9N 56.3W 1001 41
0000UTC 19.09.2017 96 15.5N 57.2W 994 53
1200UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.4N 58.2W 988 59
0000UTC 20.09.2017 120 17.2N 59.5W 983 60
1200UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.8W 980 59
0000UTC 21.09.2017 144 18.4N 61.9W 973 66
 

metwannabe

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#30
GFS all in with a major hurricane near Puerto Rico the same time Jose is hitting New England next week

Looks like it will come down to what Jose does, if he hangs around he leaves the door open for 96L/Maria to recurve and miss the US

If he just recurves and leaves quickly then Maria probably threatens the US

Or the GFS hangs a dying Jose out near NYC which leaves a path for Maria to hit NYC
06z GFS gets Jose out of the way and allows Maria to turn back and landfall in SC.... you're spot on, we won't have any idea until we see what Jose does and heck even modeling struggling with that at this point
 

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