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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

From Allan Huffman just fyi....

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Jackstraw said:
HDOB drops showing some "possible" outer wind maximas forming outside the eye. Keyword is possible. Looking desperately for anything to weaken it somehow before the islands and PR.
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Yeah NHC mentions this as well but so far hasn't done anything to halt the strengthening of the inner eyewall

The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah NHC mentions this as well but so far hasn't done anything to halt the strengthening of the inner eyewall

The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.
Click to expand...
Sometimes when the storms are very strong the forming outer eyewall just kinda of contracts inward and merges with the inner eyewall
instead of a full on collapse of the inner eyewall. You end up with the inner eye somewhat bigger than it was and yeah not much if any weakening.
 
The winds are looking a little weaker in the NE wall on this last pass, based on what Levi's site is showing.
 
This is going to be extremely bad for Puerto Rico. Winds will continue to increase as the pressure drops. The last major hit they took was from Hugo way back in 1989.

Sadly, I do not see a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle yet.
 
recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA.png

Maria now holds sole possession of 12th place on the Atlantic's all time lowest Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) list for tropical cyclones if the 913 hPa minimum central pressure stands (which it likely will). Strongest since Hurricane Dean (2007) & Wilma (2005)...
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Shawn said:
This is going to be extremely bad for Puerto Rico. Winds will continue to increase as the pressure drops. The last major hit they took was from Hugo way back in 1989.

Sadly, I do not see a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle yet.
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Yeah, I feel bad for them! TWC has Paul Goodloe live from San Juan! Wonder if he stays for landfall!?
 
Don't forget with both Harvey and Irma models trended West as much as 200 miles within 1-4 days of landfall. Models have under estimated the High Pressure since Hurricane Season started. With that said, they have been decent at beginning of track till the High came into play. Food for thought.
 
Latest extrapolated MSLP continues to tank in the center of Maria... 909 hPa w/ 20 kt wind (equates to ~906-907 mb). Dropsonde will probably find something closer to 910 hPa.
Recon Maria 630pm Sep 19 2017.png
 
Gfs has more interaction with the baggy trough over the gomex and washes Jose out which allows tune NE ridge to bridge with the atlantic ridge. It also had a much stronger/farther west ridge in the atlantic. There are a couple of scenarios that would favor Maria getting well west. As has been the theme it all depends on Jose

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I really don't know how people don't remember the west trend with Hurricanes as they get closer, The WAR have been unestimated all summer by the models.
 
Recon finds the pressure in Maria still falling, now down to about 909 hPa given the 910mb surface reading w/ 14 kt wind. Places Maria inside the top 10 all time for lowest MSLP for any Atlantic Tropical Cyclone.
History in the making...

recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_dropsonde13_20170919-2218.png
 
SD said:
Gfs has more interaction with the baggy trough over the gomex and washes Jose out which allows tune NE ridge to bridge with the atlantic ridge. It also had a much stronger/farther west ridge in the atlantic. There are a couple of scenarios that would favor Maria getting well west. As has been the theme it all depends on Jose

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Yeah far from a done deal...last 4 GFS runs

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Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).
 
Brent said:
Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).
Click to expand...
NHC just updated to that
7:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 16.9°N 64.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 909 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
 
This is going to be horrendous for PR. I went in 1998 a few months after Georges and still had to switch hotels because they were still doing repairs. El Yunque had a ton of tree damage, and entire species of birds were wiped out. I can't imagine what this will do
 
noda-wx said:
This is going to be horrendous for PR. I went in 1998 a few months after Georges and still had to switch hotels because they were still doing repairs. El Yunque had a ton of tree damage, and entire species of birds were wiped out. I can't imagine what this will do
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I don't want to come off as some sort of saint or pontiff --- of which I am assuredly neither, but somehow please take a minute and ask in whatever way you do and feel best doing that God has mercy ...
 
I was thinking it wouldn't get down below 900mb yesterday. Webber, do you happen to have the maximum potential strength for the area it's in?
 
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