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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

ForsythSnow said:
No change at 8? Are you kidding? It has likely strengthened and they choose to maintain?
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This likely explains it.
recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_dropsonde15_20170919-2335.png
 
Nevermind my last post. Inner eyewall built back.
 
Even if she doesn't go lower 909 knocks ivan out of the top 10 lowest pressures and Maria takes 9th place
 
Brett has had live stream up most of the day, but it's just been at a fixed location i.e. looking at the waves crashing, etc. I haven't checked in the last hour tho, been doing dinner - life of a mom.
 
pcbjr said:
FS - Would like you to get rain and water in the Lake ... but you surely agree, there are better solutions ... With ya Man - we just need another mechanism ... Phil
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We are about to start getting fronts again here, so I think we will get some good rain from them. Irma didn't do much for rain here anyway, so I would rather have a weak low crossing the country than a tropical cyclone. Hoping for it to just go OTS as well.
 
Looks like the upper level dropsonde mission has just finished up or is about to. We should be getting fresher data in at 0Z, or maybe already did at 18Z. 0Z should be telling if so.
 
Hopefully it's not the same case, but I remember that outside the Ukie there was no model that supported Matthew significantly affecting the continental US until quite late in the game last year. (I said that this morning in fact)

Of course the difference here is there are 0 models supporting it instead of just 1...so is every major model going to whiff? Hopefully not.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Hopefully it's not the same case, but I remember that outside the Ukie there was no model that supported Matthew significantly affecting the continental US until quite late in the game last year. (I said that this morning in fact)

Of course the difference here is there are 0 models supporting it instead of just 1...so is every major model going to whiff? Hopefully not.
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Well, the hurricane models are much further SW than previously, and also had Jose further W with a smaller loop at 18Z. The two the together I believe and therefore, if Jose were to loop sooner or be inland, Maria would be a US threat. And don't forget about the "The ridge is stronger than modeled" part too. That could cause a US impact.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Well, the hurricane models are much further SW than previously, and also had Jose further W with a smaller loop at 18Z. The two the together I believe and therefore, if Jose were to loop sooner or be inland, Maria would be a US threat. And don't forget about the "The ridge is stronger than modeled" part too. That could cause a US impact.
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ive said all along that the U.S. is still in play and will be for the fact that jose is weakening faster then anticipated
 
Sick to my stomach watching Maria march straight for Puerto Rico. Given how mountainous the island is, there are going to be some serious rain/flash flooding issues, along with the hellish winds and storm surge.

Prayers indeed to everybody in the path of the storm (as well as those continuing to recover from Harvey, from Irma and from the earthquake in Mexico).

I've had a couple people ask me today if we can rule out the U.S. East Coast, given the cone bending toward an OTS solution. I'm telling everybody to stand still for the moment. We need to see how this storm emerges from the islands before we can start trying to pinpoint any U.S. mainland impacts. That ridge building out of the Great Lakes states, what will (or will not) Jose do, how strong does the high offshore work back to the west?

For now, just thinking about our friends in the islands and hoping for the best. I have a feeling we're going to be watching this one pretty closely for quite a while moving forward ...

--30--
 
I was looking at WxSouth on Facebook and thought this part was interesting. The way this hurricane season has been the last month, I'm not counting anything out yet.

I'll talk more tomorrow about the chances for some sort of east Coast impact. Most models do agree on it recurving out , but there's a strong ridge to it's north as well, so it's sort of strange to see that curve take place (usually systems would slow, then dart west, or northwest). I think Jose's remnants by then are playing with the models, but I certainly hope they're right in the total recurvature, just not sold on it just yet.
 
As bad as Maria will hit PR, PR will probably do the same back. I expect a massive core disruption and wouldn't be surprised to see it take a hard west turn as it gets shredded. After that we will have a much better handle on track.
 
We really just don't know exactly where Maria will go for sure until about Friday once it gets north of the Greater Antilles and the recent increase in spread from some of the 0z early cycle models and GEFS w/ the input of upper level data only highlights the uncertainties... To only complicate matters further, the remnants of Lee appear to be more impressive than forecast and it's unsure exactly what significant impact (if any) its diabatic PV tower would have on the large-scale steering flow of Maria by this weekend

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area,
the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing
gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of
the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee.
However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
URNT12 KNHC 20032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017
A. 20/03:10:00Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
064 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2306 m
D. 112 kt
E. 184 deg 5 nm
F. 270 deg 117 kt
G. 184 deg 5 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 13 C / 3050 m
J. 22 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0715A MARIA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 147 KT 034 / 8 NM 03:13:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200 / 23 KT
 
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