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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Shawn said:
This is a very good site with Maria information consolidated into one place, including the raw T numbers.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL152017
Click to expand...
Shawn,
Good pick up!
FWIW if members want to browse, that and many other resources are in Wiki (that one is in http://flhurricane.com/ so it's not apparent without visiting and looking around), but I'd hope our folks take advantage of what FS and unnamed others have put in to Wiki ... ;)
Phil
 
Windshear measurements:
2017_AL15_AMSUAAVG_000000000000.gif
 
Here come the scary numbers.
 
There are flags on the 152KT reading "05".
 
Recon finding evidence for a cat 5 on the first pass...

Extrapolated MSLP ~ 925 hpa and uncontaminated winds of 140 knots (160 mph). Not surprising at all given the satellite presentation. Recon hasn't even hit the strongest quadrant of the storm (NE quad)
recon_AF303-0315A-MARIA_timeseries.png

recon_AF303-0315A-MARIA_zoom.png
 
Insane.
232630 1525N 06107W 6969 02880 9738 +120 +120 062110 113 100 035 00
232700 1524N 06106W 6973 02826 9686 +121 +121 063119 122 104 048 00
232730 1523N 06105W 6971 02770 9622 +121 +121 062128 132 123 064 00
232800 1522N 06104W 6957 02706 9533 +127 +127 065129 136 139 050 00
232830 1521N 06103W 6991 02592 9430 +138 //// 065096 118 152 017 05
232900 1520N 06103W 6963 02576 9344 +155 +136 074051 082 /// /// 03
232930 1518N 06102W 6970 02548 9329 +156 +104 078029 035 040 002 00
233000 1516N 06102W 6972 02528 9287 +182 +099 055014 029 034 001 03
233030 1515N 06101W 6973 02520 9259 +207 +096 252016 029 035 001 03
233100 1514N 06059W 6975 02544 9325 +165 +123 230071 090 078 005 03
233130 1513N 06057W 6967 02651 9477 +137 +137 219119 125 122 020 00
233200 1512N 06056W 6972 02755 9591 +129 //// 212119 125 122 018 05
233230 1511N 06055W 6969 02808 9648 +127 +127 213110 116 118 016 00
 
139KT reading is clean though. That is still a Category 5 hurricane.
 
So what we have is a 925.9mb hurricane with 159.9 (160mph) winds. If we get another pass with an unflagged 150kt + windspeed, we are approaching 170mph + winds. Overnight, it is very possible that Maria can still approach Allen's Atlantic record of 190mph, barring an eyewall replacement cycle.
 
Still waiting for the dropsondes. I think we're going to see even scarier numbers that will eventually start making it down to the surface over the coming hours.
 
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Maria.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
 
Shawn said:
So what we have is a 925.9mb hurricane with 159.9 (160mph) winds. If we get another pass with an unflagged 150kt + windspeed, we are approaching 170mph + winds. Overnight, it is very possible that Maria can still approach Allen's Atlantic record of 190mph, barring an eyewall replacement cycle.
Click to expand...

Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
 
144kt 500m mean wind on the drop in the NE eyewall.
Lowest, 134kt in the lower levels.
 
Yes with small systems land interaction of almost any size would distrupt/disturb the system.. But then, recovery can also be quicker.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
Click to expand...
From the radar it already may be happening, it sure looks like it temporarily hung a left.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah and/or interaction with Dominica. I know the island is tiny but it's about the size of Maria's core and the highest mountain is ~4700 feet high so that could interfere w/ the inner core and/or lead to a smaller-scale cyclonic deflection around the island...
Click to expand...

Yes, but there's a boiling lake on the island, and I think that will help intensify it.
 
Jackstraw said:
What is really scary about that sonde is the consistency of the extreme winds through all levels, thats freakin crazy.
Click to expand...

New sonde drop is stronger, 148kt mean - lowest 500mb, and 153kt in the lowest 200m!! Surface just got 143kt!!!
 
Yep the SE eyewall is stronger and now makes sense of the 152kt flagged reading. Whew!
 
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