• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

A strong majority of the 18Z GEFS members are offshore the SE US. Looks better than the 12Z GEFS, a good sign for now especially when considering the mostly offshore 12Z EPS members. If I were a betting man, I'd bet offshore but it is still too early to call.
 
NCSNOW said:
Feeling pretty good atm with regards to avoiding a conus hit, thanks to Jose. Hopefully models have this pegged correctly. Still gonna wait till Maria gets North of PR and if the forecast still holds well all be able to breathe easier.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't buy any track until it hits PR. Like I said if this thing stays on the small side, the splat will be epic. Then it could go anywhere.
 
Mason Dixon said:
Anybody have access to the Panasonic model?
Click to expand...
If you find a source of that data anywhere, it would be greatly appreciated. I have looked high and low for the raw data, maps, charts, anything to do with it. I noticed that guy, Glenn Burns, has named his "custom in-house model" after it. I highly doubt he has the actual Panasonic modeling.
 
Plane was just turning around going back, lining up for the NE pass. And she's coming on shore Dominica. Man what a disaster that's getting ready to unfold.
 
Shawn said:
If you find a source of that data anywhere, it would be greatly appreciated. I have looked high and low for the raw data, maps, charts, anything to do with it. I noticed that guy, Glenn Burns, has named his "custom in-house model" after it. I highly doubt he has the actual Panasonic modeling.
Click to expand...
Of all the people in the weather field , I can assure Glenn Burns does not have it lol
 
what happens if Jose was to dissipate tonight and not influence Maria and say a steering component from the east was to form and block the escape to the north??
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
what happens if Jose was to dissipate tonight and not influence Maria and say a steering component from the east was to form and block the escape to the north??
Click to expand...

Maria most likely hits the us if jose dies sooner than expected
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
what happens if Jose was to dissipate tonight and not influence Maria and say a steering component from the east was to form and block the escape to the north??
Click to expand...
She'd likely be steered by lower heights toward Florida or SC, even possibly into the Gulf.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just a quick question, but what is this about recon bailing? Is there something wrong with the current mission? Plane making the turn now.
Click to expand...
You'd have to ask the people flying the plane. If they're going back in, it's likely not a plane engine problem, thankfully! Maybe radar or dropsonde instruments weren't ready yet. Never know.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just a quick question, but what is this about recon bailing? Is there something wrong with the current mission? Plane making the turn now.
Click to expand...
I see no evidence of them bailing yet but the proximity to the shore and some higher land elevations may prevent them from making another pass. Shall see.
 
15L_tracks_latest.png

0z early cycle models (most of which are based on the GFS) thankfully appear to be keeping Maria OTS as they turn north rather quickly once Maria passes the Greater Antilles, but we won't know for sure until Thursday and/or Friday when she is north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
 
All this wasted energy on tracking a fish storm!? Save some for winter storm tracking!
 
It's not really scientifically based at all, but I'm simply not buying at all the idea of Jose staying a weak hurricane for as long as the models suggest...if he's a moderate TS or weaker in the next 1-2 days we're going to see some shifting west if/when the models figure it out (perhaps still enough to keep Maria away from the US)...and even still, this hurricane is going to affect countries that DON'T need it at all.

But this has been the season that goes against typical, so maybe Jose does do this and Maria stays off shore for us...
 
Maria had taken a pronounced Southwestern wobble and she's currently trying to gain latitude again.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top