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Pattern December to Remember

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That was a good one. I remember local Mets tracked that one confiedently from 6-7 days out. Like it couldn’t miss.
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That’s wild. Our guys around here blew it off big time. Saying just a few snow flurries. Ended up getting like 4-6 out of it. Hrrr nailed the event.
 
DarkKnight said:
That’s wild. Our guys around here blew it off big time. Saying just a few snow flurries. Ended up getting like 4-6 out of it. Hrrr nailed the event.
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Yeah, I was in La Fayette, GA visiting family and it was thought that we could see an inch of snow...well that inch ended up being more like 4 inches of snow and we got upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning about halfway through when the cat was out of the bag (although I'm sure most didn't mind).

Fun event.

I certainly don't think this was tracked from 15-16 days out though, which is when we saw that winter storm that was depicted on the 18z GFS today.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Last December, the city of Atlanta had temps of 32°or below 11 days out of the month. If this pattern holds…it could be 0.


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What's really wild is Baton Rouge has yet to reach 32 this season! Normally we'll hit that by late November. We got close a couple times, getting down to 34 one morning in mid November, but we have yet to hit the magic number. Maybe by year's end. :(
 
Will Rossman said:
What's really wild is Baton Rouge has yet to reach 32 this season! Normally we'll hit that by late November. We got close a couple times, getting down to 34 one morning in mid November, but we have yet to hit the magic number. Maybe by year's end. :(
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Wow…that’s amazing!


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ATLwxfan said:
Interesting thread. If you believe Huffman, don’t get too excited about the MJO…




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I don't think the MJO is supposed to go into a favorable cold phase for SE US weather until we get to Phase 7 or 8 anyway. The earliest that's supposed to occur is end of December, which means we shouldn't be surprised if this region isn't that cold for Christmas week.
 
Will Rossman said:
What's really wild is Baton Rouge has yet to reach 32 this season! Normally we'll hit that by late November. We got close a couple times, getting down to 34 one morning in mid November, but we have yet to hit the magic number. Maybe by year's end. :(
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I don't think DFW has officially yet either which is pretty crazy for them(some of the suburbs have but yeah not the airport or probably the immediate metro)

Meanwhile up here 4 hours north we've been well down into the 20s a few times already
 
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Will Rossman said:
I don't think the MJO is supposed to go into a favorable cold phase for SE US weather until we get to Phase 7 or 8 anyway. The earliest that's supposed to occur is end of December, which means we shouldn't be surprised if this region isn't that cold for Christmas week.
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I don’t think you read his entire thread. Not saying I agree with him but he’s saying a pass through phases 7 8 1 hardly guarantees a cold pattern and even showed previous years where this mjo pass thru resulted in a mild se with all the cold focused west. Amplitude matters and some models are showing a weak wave entering 7-8
 
Will Rossman said:
I don't think the MJO is supposed to go into a favorable cold phase for SE US weather until we get to Phase 7 or 8 anyway. The earliest that's supposed to occur is end of December, which means we shouldn't be surprised if this region isn't that cold for Christmas week.
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Here’s phase 7 & 8 during La Nina’s in December. Not overly cold at all and there is also a 10 day lag here but at least blocking develops and there’s hints on the modeling of blocking and the AO/NAO going negative or at least trending in that direction. We don’t really need to focus on cold, just focus on drivers and teleconnections that lead to cold. But I agree with Allan in that I’m not sure we’ll be locked into cold but to the same point no one knows for sure, but seasonal models haven’t exactly hinted at any long term cold…

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Great GFS run! ?
We hug! 1DFC09BC-2F40-4F87-8ABB-9D05A832EB0A.png
 
MJO phase 7-8 are great looks for us overall at this time of the year w/ big -EPO & -NAO. I think we'll see the models trend a little more towards this pattern in the coming week or two, but the -PNA may be there in some capacity regardless. That's not necessarily the end of the world, really just means we're more likely to get overrunning/CAD events and there could be some warm-ups from time to time. Fwiw, when you look at many of the biggest CAD/overrunning, they have higher, even slightly positive PNAs leading up to them that transition negative a day or two prior to the storm showing up.

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Webberweather53 said:
MJO phase 7-8 are great looks for us overall at this time of the year w/ big -EPO & -NAO. I think we'll see the models trend a little more towards this pattern in the coming week or two, but the -PNA may be there in some capacity regardless. That's not necessarily the end of the world, really just means we're more likely to get overrunning/CAD events and there could be some warm-ups from time to time. Fwiw, when you look at many of the biggest CAD/overrunning, they have higher, even slightly positive PNAs leading up to them that transition negative a day or two prior to the storm showing up.

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The end to the 6Z GEFS is hiding the fact that the entire period 12/19-23 is the coldest run yet in the SE.
 
Hey guys as promised, you know I’ve been honking Jan.15th or later for our first winter storm E of the mtns for quiet some time. However, I told you I would update this December 12th if it should be sooner or later! I am now going with LATER with a time period of January 25th~ or later. Doesn’t mean winter is over I’m just trying to narrow in on when we may start tracking something of significance (greater than 3” snow or quarter inch ice). My next update will be on Christmas Eve to look at the pattern and models to see if things should be pushed back to February 1st or later. Thanks! ?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hey guys as promised, you know I’ve been honking Jan.15th or later for our first winter storm E of the mtns for quiet some time. However, I told you I would update this December 12th if it should be sooner or later! I am now going with LATER with a time period of January 25th~ or later. Doesn’t mean winter is over I’m just trying to narrow in on when we may start tracking something of significance (greater than 3” snow or quarter inch ice). My next update will be on Christmas Eve to look at the pattern and models to see if things should be pushed back to February 1st or later. Thanks! ?
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What’s your reasoning?
 
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