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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

NoSnowATL said:
Need a @Lickwx type ice storm, the biggest one ever
nah ice storms tend to kill trees. He would be sad.
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Depends , I’ll sacrifice some trees as they are tough if In turn I brake the states bank account with damages from the epic ice storm . Knock the power out , clear the skies and I get the most epic stargazing . Halt all development for a year , bring in a massive tornado outbreak in spring followed by a very bad hurricane season in the fall. Yeah North Carolina would finally be on the right track in such a scenario . Also , there’s a lot more trees than money . I like trees more than money therefore I’m happier than you :). It’s a win .



God I want all the power to go out for one clear night so I can stargaze !
 
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Speaking of trees , my favorite tree. I named it Olivia, well for now I really don’t got a good name for it . I love this tree , it’s my absolute favorite tree on earth . I visited it today, no pictures today so here is some of it in the summer .


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NoSnowATL said:
Good place for a house.
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There’s some along the water not far from . The state park is too small at only some 1600 acres .Either way , one bad hurricane and those houses go poof. That tree though, hundreds of years old. There’s even some wooden planks marking some unmarked graves , people buried hundreds of years ago. They will stand but not the homes.
 
@Thor stay away! I saw your like ! I know your itching to buy a home there don’t lie ! I know your dreaming of a subdivision plan out there .
 
Storm5 must have a crush on me since he is still using my avatar in my honor.
 
Thor said:
Nah I'm not a believer in coastal development in a place like that. They are always just rentals.
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Wilmington’s in bad shape , saw the town council keeps having to deny some projects that would have to backfill along the cape fear and what not . Along river road . Development in very bad spots is not going to end well. It’s been 20+ years since Wilmington got a real hurricane . Plus that area is all service industry and retirees. Washington NC is my favorite coastal town , alongside a few others . New Bern is going to get wilmingtoned with I-42 . That area used to be pretty cut off , I mean its an overall declining area still but we will see.
 
Waiting on the 0z GEFS and then I may work on an updated prediction map with some adjustments to the prediction. On tonight's 0z GFS run, it starts out okay between hrs. 156 - 168, but after that features become disorganized.
 
StormWatch said:
Waiting on the 0z GEFS and then I may work on an updated prediction map with some adjustments to the prediction. On tonight's 0z GFS run, it starts out okay between hrs. 156 - 168, but after that features become disorganized.
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Where’s the first prediction?
 
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0z Euro and some thoughts

The new data does indeed indicate the low kicking out from Texas and tracking along the Gulf coast with a 1035mb high northeast of the low. The high could be stronger (sub 1040mb or even a low 1040mb) it's too early to know the strength of the high but nevertheless, CAD would be introduced. Of course, the Euro has a warmer bias, however at this stage, excact temperature profiles are unknown. Currently, just looking for further verification/confirmation of an actual low developing and keeping a watch on upper air flow patterns.

As I mentioned in my preliminary prediction, scenario 2 is what I'm going with and that does seem to be the case at this time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar solution as to what the 18z GFS indicated from yesterday because with the arctic high pressure building northeast of the low and another arctic high coming down on the back side of the low (likely) It's certainly possible the potential winter storm can produce ice, ZR/IP prior of the eastern ridge dissipating, transitioning to all snow as the warmer levels erode at the same time the ridge dissipates and as the deeper air mass comes into place on the back side of low. Lots of players will be at play with this particular setup.
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Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
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StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
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Great storm... for Iowa.
 
StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
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It’ll have to get way south. Still would be cool if it did.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
StormWatch said:
Okay, so this is the (soon to be, possibly) winter storm that I'm predicting, the GFS has been hinting at it at H5, but it's finally materializing at the surface. This is beginning of a trend, I expect this storm system to trend south and east over time. Winter storm prediction is still a go!
23ab0c4b087257495e4798f79496f985.gif
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Weenie
 
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