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Pattern December to Remember

SnowNiner said:
Ok, I think we'll all agree to give you the cold and snow the last 10 days of December, as long as you promise that it moves east to us the first 10 days of January. And not just with the moderating -NAO, we have to have that pacific ridge shift east with it for a +PNA. Deal? ?
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I’m scared of those / tilted AK ridges, hopefully blocking comes thru to help the cold undercut to the SE
 
I’ve learned my lesson with the NAO and Epo it will be delayed significantly so I’m still thinking post January 15th for even a chance of sig winter precip E of the mtn.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
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The CFS does have a realistic evolution for what’s it’s worth 1638835334804.png
Regardless of exact model output, a well AN weeks 1-2 followed by a slight AN week 3 and then normal week 4 looks like a good bet. Then once the pattern is established it’s game on
 
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Cary_Snow95 said:
The CFS does have a realistic evolution for what’s it’s worth View attachment 97062
Regardless of exact model output, a well AN weeks 1-2 followed by a slight AN week 3 and then normal week 4 looks like a good bet. Then once the pattern is established it’s game on
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Gimme a ridge axis that extends from the west coast-BC-AK, these GOA-AK/Aleutian ridge axis setups can go wrong
 
How many times have we seen snow here in December? I remember the epic Christmas 2010 storm and the 2002 ice storm. Thise are the only two storms of note that I remember here in December. As long as we can start getting things cold around Christmas we still have two whole months with realistic snow chances.
 
Brick Tamland said:
How many times have we seen snow here in December? I remember the epic Christmas 2010 storm and the 2002 ice storm. Thise are the only two storms of note that I remember here in December. As long as we can start getting things cold around Christmas we still have two whole months with realistic snow chances.
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Remember 2018?
 
Brick Tamland said:
How many times have we seen snow here in December? I remember the epic Christmas 2010 storm and the 2002 ice storm. Thise are the only two storms of note that I remember here in December. As long as we can start getting things cold around Christmas we still have two whole months with realistic snow chances.
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How could you forget the most recent one 2018? Didn't you get a foot?
 
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Brick Tamland said:
How many times have we seen snow here in December? I remember the epic Christmas 2010 storm and the 2002 ice storm. Thise are the only two storms of note that I remember here in December. As long as we can start getting things cold around Christmas we still have two whole months with realistic snow chances.
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Didn’t you have over 10 inches in the December 2018 storm?
 
Front came through around 3-4 PM CST here, with scattered severe weather. Now it's drizzly, with the temp down to 57 (after a high of 80 earlier today) and a light breeze out of the north. I love it. The front's supposed to hang up along the gulf coast late tonight with overrunning moisture setup for tomorrow, which should make for a more December like day.
 
Looks like I will see my first flakes of the year Wednesday morning in the daylight. The system is so light that I wouldnt be surprised if nothing happened. Although it seems very likely I will see flakes and so that would be a win for sure.
 
Just a small piece from Joe D'Aleo tonight. 17/18 winter he's speaking of.

I remember that cold well as the heating oil companies were not prepared for the demand and deliveries were delayed. I had to carry through the snow 5 gallons of diesel daily from the gas stations to pour into the tank to keep heat with the thermostat down going and pipes from freezing.
BTW, a storm dumped on the east in early January, of of 4 NESIS high impact storms.
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Let's see if the models start to converge on that as the time approaches. BTW, JB I see has that also in his post. Back before Weatherbell, when I was Dr. Dewpoint at WSI's Intellicast, when we were doing a post often someone would remark JoeB at Accuweather was thinking the same thing and questioned whether he had tapped our phone. No I said, JB was like me old school, which means your are always searching and looking back to look forward, I am glad to work beside him and the rest of the team here.
 
??? Best fantasy run of last 2 winters!!????6EE24AE6-85F1-4F1B-9878-61331E78C085.png117BD878-C89D-4F14-A01C-929671C64585.png
 

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