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Pattern December to Remember

Taking a look at the CFSv2 - it shows a colder period (short lived) in 10 days especially for the upper portion of the Southeast. The model is showing a Bermuda high that dominates and amplifies warming the entire Eastern US after day 10, but that's still in question if that would occur. Both GEFS and EPS shows this colder short lived period as well. As the colder air begins transitioning across the Canadian border into the northern portion of the US, of course a front would develop with a storm system. Questions still remain as well about the storm system of how it would evolve, it would also depend on what happens with the blocking over the Atlantic.
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Hard enough to get actual winter wx to verify here in a good winter. New Challenge this year is just trying to find Digital Fanatsy stuff. Anyway, heres the best I can do . Not alot to work with. My goal this winter is to get 60 minutes of flakes to fly and dust the mulch, so we can say we avoided the shutout. Got my bar/standards as low as they go, even after considering 20-30 Heavy Frost as a neutral comprimise. Anything above the stated goal is a major victory this season. Long Live the La-Nina

7 Days out:
GFS

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Canadian
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Euro says Not So Fast: Does get some backside/post front flakes latter next week northern Mtns:

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Silver Lining: Last Year we had Below Normal temps D,J,F all winter: yet RDU only got an inch an half of snow. So why we should expect this winter to avg above normal Temp wise. This article says like 49 out of 50 La nina winters have avg AN.
Great Read from WRAL, esp you Raleigh Guys who might have missed it. Check out the Avg Snow climo, 30 yr avg and 10 yr avg/ Compare.


RDU_Snow_Averages-DMID1-5swrfzngk-640x360.jpg



www.wral.com

La Niña pattern could mean good news for snow lovers in WRAL's winter outlook

The winter months are almost here, so it's time for the WRAL Severe Weather Center's winter outlook.
www.wral.com www.wral.com
 
Webberweather53 said:
Setting ourselves up to get pimp slapped by the 12z runs
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At the end of the day we know the next 15 days or so will air on the side of warm there’s no escaping that but can we time up a cold front or two that develops good CAD with a trailing wave to make dreams come true for someone. Probably not but we’re in for some cold rains it looks like regardless
 
The end of the 6z gfs was getting to where I would like to see us go for the 2nd half of December into early Jan. Its not quite there and it's not a beauty at D16 but it's baby stepsgfs_z500a_nhem_65 (14).png

The end of the gefs was moving in that direction as well. gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65 (13).png

The end of the eps is getting there tooecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9612800.png
 
SD said:
Basically lol. Going to have to get some type of positive amplification in that region or we are just going to sit in this same look until march it feels like
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Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.
 
SD said:
Basically lol. Going to have to get some type of positive amplification in that region or we are just going to sit in this same look until march it feels like
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To me it's really as simple as that. Until we shut off pacific flow into the conus, we're just going to be warm, or at best cool. The -NAO last year kept us cool and wedgy just enough to give us several bouts of cold of a rain as possible. Right now without it, it just looks warm. And it's just awesome that all the teleconnections turn the day we enter into meteorological winter. ?? It's amazing how that happens. ?‍♂️

Here's to a January turn around.
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.
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I think a lot of this ties into old climo. We had a really long stretch (decades?) where the pacific was never bad other than short periods or random 1 off years so the main driver to winter weather was the NAO. Now that we certainly moved into a cycle where the pacific is more bad than good the influence/importance of the NAO gets muted and the importance of the pacific being favorable has come to the forefront. I'd rather spike a ridge through AK to the pole put the PV over Hudson Bay, have a +nao in the means and take my chances vs a -pna/-nao 35 and rain
 
SnowNiner said:
To me it's really as simple as that. Until we shut off pacific flow into the conus, we're just going to be warm, or at best cool. The -NAO last year kept us cool and wedgy just enough to give us several bouts of cold of a rain as possible. Right now without it, it just looks warm. And it's just awesome that all the teleconnections turn the day we enter into meteorological winter. ?? It's amazing how that happens. ?‍♂️

Here's to a January turn around.
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I keep harping on it but that almost standing wave type ridge near Scandinavia over to the urals becomes a big key for the rest of winter. Can it split the TPV or at least force enough southeast into east Asia so that we can really build the pac ridge? Can it build into the strat? I'm not sure but outside of a miracle with the mjo it's hard to find a lot to point at for the next 20-30 days and say yeah that's our way out
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Its funny how for years everyone was saying we need an -NAO to get wall to wall cold and the cold air needed to be on our side of the globe......well we got both and still torch just goes to show how many variables are at play with weather.
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The -NAO is all that kept us from burning last year. But it can't supply the cold air as we found out. I still believe the NAO is very important to get sustained below average temps for weeks or months at a time. 13-14 is remembered as a cold snowy winter that was actually above average temp wise because the extreme cold shots were in an out. It's not a coincidence that 09-10 was wall to wall cold and featured extreme blocking. Last year we finally got another wall to wall -NAO but blew it with a bad Pac.
 
The back few days of this may warm more as they get closer due to currently being buoyed down by cold members but I don't think this is terrible. If we copy/paste this into Jan I might change my tune ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-daily_tmin_tmax-8316800.png
 
SD said:
The back few days of this may warm more as they get closer due to currently being buoyed down by cold members but I don't think this is terrible. If we copy/paste this into Jan I might change my tune View attachment 96481
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Lol they definitely will warm more , Thursday- Saturday are 70s and today is almost certainly going to be higher than 61
 
SD said:
I keep harping on it but that almost standing wave type ridge near Scandinavia over to the urals becomes a big key for the rest of winter. Can it split the TPV or at least force enough southeast into east Asia so that we can really build the pac ridge? Can it build into the strat? I'm not sure but outside of a miracle with the mjo it's hard to find a lot to point at for the next 20-30 days and say yeah that's our way out
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The big picture I struggle with, like you mentioned is that we've had such bad pacific setups for so many winters now. I think 2014 was the last one that stood out that really helped us. I don't know as a whole what the issue is. Western troughs/SE ridge are just the pattern, and I'm patiently waiting for that pattern to break down.

Last year's popular scapegoat was the East Indian Dipole or something something? That kept us in the bad mjo mojo. It was too hot to handle, so how's that looking this year? Did it simmer down?
 
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RAIN RAIN RAIN PLEASE
NC needs it more though. Praying for rain there.
 
SnowNiner said:
The big picture I struggle with, like you mentioned is that we've had such bad pacific setups for so many winters now. I think 2014 was the last one that stood out that really helped us. I don't know as a whole what the issue is. Western troughs/SE ridge are just the pattern, and I'm patiently waiting for that pattern to break down.

Last year's popular scapegoat was the East Indian Dipole or something something? That kept us in the bad mjo mojo. It was too hot to handle, so how's that looking this year? Did it simmer down?
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Nope not really. I can't find a SST anom map from last winter though
 
SD said:
I think a lot of this ties into old climo. We had a really long stretch (decades?) where the pacific was never bad other than short periods or random 1 off years so the main driver to winter weather was the NAO. Now that we certainly moved into a cycle where the pacific is more bad than good the influence/importance of the NAO gets muted and the importance of the pacific being favorable has come to the forefront. I'd rather spike a ridge through AK to the pole put the PV over Hudson Bay, have a +nao in the means and take my chances vs a -pna/-nao 35 and rain
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Agree 100%
 
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???? No way right, just rain here in Roanoke
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If we’re going to SER hard we might as well get some action in the severe department .. 12z GFS gets us just that .. and of course you know what they say 10 days after thunder in the winter time ?
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10 days after thunder in December you get torched.
 
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