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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Don't look now but here comes Lee.... this is what I'd call hyper active.
ecmwf_mslp_atlantic_34.png
 
it looks like the 2nd one is the one with a possible future beyond something short-lived, same thing that is over the islands at 240 hours on the Euro
 
GFS forms one of them near the Caribbean in about a week, stays weak, then it stalls in the Bahamas, becomes decently strong, threatens Florida then turns north into SC in fantasy land
 
Brent said:
GFS forms one of them near the Caribbean in about a week, stays weak, then it stalls in the Bahamas, becomes decently strong, threatens Florida then turns north into SC in fantasy land
Click to expand...

Yeah and there's another right on its heels and a broad area of low pressure in association with the monsoon gyre begins to develop near the Yucatan. Moral of the story: this season is a long ways from being over
 
Definitely plenty of season left... late Sept/early Oct has been the peak last few years(though I doubt/hope Harvey/Irma are topped), but in any case, more action is pretty much assured
 
UKMET forms the lead circle into a hurricane for the Antilles further south than Irma at the end of the run in 6 days

10/40 on that one now and 10/30 on the other one

Euro has Lee at 72 hours from the lead circle too seems to stay weak and eventually die though NE of the islands
 
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Lol if you buy the GFS (which I do not) then you have a landfalling system while Jose, yep Jose is still looping around in the Atlantic o_O silly GFS
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_45.png
 
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located south of the Cabo Verde Islands, is
producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system has become much better organized since yesterday and could
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days before
upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Damn that escalated quickly
 
Webberweather53 said:
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located south of the Cabo Verde Islands, is
producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system has become much better organized since yesterday and could
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days before
upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Damn that escalated quickly
Click to expand...
Someone turned the stove to high power it seems. I expect a PTC or depression in a couple of days from the one closest to Africa. The further out one (96L) will take a few days longer I feel to organize.
 
What the heck is the 6z gfs spitting out? 2 other TC out from no where Lol!!
 
This tropical watching is keeping us busy, until we start watching for winterstorms.
 
GFS is strongly hinting at some development somewhere around the western Caribbean or Yucatan peninsula and moving towards Florida but it's pretty far out in time

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png
 
The 18Z GEFS does it again with many hits on FL and the NE Gulf 10/3-8. Of course this could be a false signal but even the 12Z EPS has some hint of it.
 
Brent said:
GFS is strongly hinting at some development somewhere around the western Caribbean or Yucatan peninsula and moving towards Florida but it's pretty far out in time
Click to expand...

GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS does it again with many hits on FL and the NE Gulf 10/3-8. Of course this could be a false signal but even the 12Z EPS has some hint of it.
Click to expand...

Brent and Larry - Thanks for the updates and not bbb ... information ... ;)
 
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GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS does it again with many hits on FL and the NE Gulf 10/3-8. Of course this could be a false signal but even the 12Z EPS has some hint of it.
Click to expand...

There hasn't been another GEFS run nearly so active as the last 2 18Zs. However, the 12Z EPS still has moderate support for a W. Car. genesis in early Oct with 20% of members having a sub 1000 mb.
 
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