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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Man that’s the weeniest thing I’ve ever heard from you ??
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Cmc looks more like gefs than gfs
It’s not far from the icon or CMC 
iGRXY
Member
So we're back to the GFS not being supported by its ensembles again?
50/50. Still a southeast ridge on the GEFS
Bro come on I mean the ICON CMC and GEFS aren’t agreeing with that amount of dumpage out west .. I’m not saying it does I’m just saying if it proves to be wrong maybe it’s a pattern we might look at moving forward with the model .. it’s not a good model at the end of the day
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
?
Don’t looks at the individuals GEFS runs .. some getting real weenie around December 7-8 .. looks like big time CAD events on some we have to watch and see how CAD trends in the next few days that’s always a possible saving grace with these patterns
Hard to keep the ser beat down in that look but you open the door to more significant wedging and Miller b potential imo
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December 7-8th has been on a real hot streak of late producing sizeable winter storms in the SE US.
Really not far from something tho, especially if you move the TPV down, with that Baja low, need more adjustments but it’s not far 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Ah yes. Snow my north/west. Mix south/east. Rain here. Classic.?
I count 5 major CAD events on the GEFS .. all the rest have a nice warmth at 850 but I’m assuming cold rain on a lot of the other ones .. we’re on CAD watch atm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
iGRXY
Member
Even with it we are CADing so really no serious warm up at all.
Kinda surprised 
It’s clear we’re riding a very fine line here check out even p2 we’re we miss out but the evidence is there for a big time high pressure creating icing event all the way to the coast …
Last April/May , April May 2020 ?
What did we do to deserve such juicy GEFS ( also let’s all remember what Webb was talking about how the early December bump up in his winter storm chart was due to an increased ice threat for that early December time period) I think it makes this possibility a tad more interesting 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
?
Not me there are quite a few ninas with Aleutian ridges and a cold SE
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
All it took was one good 12z GEFS run for us to get sucked back in
Through D10 the trend of lower heights continues on the gefs. Might be more of just how terrible the 6z run was versus being that great
UK would have been close but there was energy entering AK so not sure and energy on the western side of the trough 
If the euro follows suit with the trend from CMC ICON and GEFS I’ll be more intrigued
The CPC isn't buying the western cold dump. Matter of fact they aren't buying any cold dump.
Were we gonna mention this or
tennessee storm
Member
Know we
Lol stands very little chance even be close right . It’s on island of its own
LickWx
Member
Looks like a cloudy day lol. Upstate looks chilly I guess .
I just want to make sure we mention the 10F below normal temperatures, seems reasonable enough to me.
LickWx
Member
It’s been 10 degrees below normal here for a few days and no one has mentioned it . That’s how it goes lol. Yesterday would have been 3 degrees below average even in January .
I swear that 51 over RDU was a 41 last time I looked. Disregard me lmao
Looks like most of the gefs members that have snow actually have back to back events
Strat warming
Vortex is getting elongated and pinched but boy is it resilient
Vortex is getting elongated and pinched but boy is it resilient
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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I approve the 12z GFS run!??????
smast16
Member
80% of those don't even show rain.