• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

Tuesday could be a raw wet day here . models showing my area under the deformation band along with a breezy north wind and highs in the mid 60s. Burrr
 
She is starting to expand. Western side looks MUCH more healthy right now. Either might not mean much, but it does look a bit better.
 
Check this out...IMHO pretty important and telling changes for sure. Notice to the west and especially NW (closer to us) how the flow is starting back and tilting toward the NW. Tells me the motion will start to change. *prob current heading* but most thing it tells me its leaving the possibility for her to maintain her strength if she can just skirt the West coast of FL and not totally go inland, its backing the flow to its west and NW and almost looks like its creating an outflow channel. *SD* pointed out yesterday that this could happen.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
 
deltadog03 said:
Check this out...IMHO pretty important and telling changes for sure. Notice to the west and especially NW (closer to us) how the flow is starting back and tilting toward the NW. Tells me the motion will start to change. *prob current heading* but most thing it tells me its leaving the possibility for her to maintain her strength if she can just skirt the West coast of FL and not totally go inland, its backing the flow to its west and NW and almost looks like its creating an outflow channel. *SD* pointed out yesterday that this could happen.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Click to expand...
Chris, almost like a supercell following along an outflow boundry (i.e. Path of least resistance)
 
Its crazy, if she takes a east inland then were slow, but if she takes incredible west wobble then this thread is booming
 
deltadog03 said:
Check this out...IMHO pretty important and telling changes for sure. Notice to the west and especially NW (closer to us) how the flow is starting back and tilting toward the NW. Tells me the motion will start to change. *prob current heading* but most thing it tells me its leaving the possibility for her to maintain her strength if she can just skirt the West coast of FL and not totally go inland, its backing the flow to its west and NW and almost looks like its creating an outflow channel. *SD* pointed out yesterday that this could happen.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Click to expand...
Looks like a lot of dry air just to the west of the cyclone that could get sucked in
 
JLL1973 said:
Looks like a lot of dry air just to the west of the cyclone that could get sucked in
Click to expand...
It could and eventually will but the flow is almost backing and instead of pushing dry air east, Irma is almost pushing that back NW The citrus shield NW of her is showing that possible senario. It might not, but it’s changing a bit ahead of her
 
deltadog03 said:
It could and eventually will but the flow is almost backing and instead of pushing dry air east, Irma is almost pushing that back NW The citrus shield NW of her is showing that possible senario. It might not, but it’s changing a bit ahead of her
Click to expand...
Yep, Shield has made it to me.. Winds ENE 20-25 with peak gust here of 41
 
pcbjr said:
... just popping in after getting power back - yes a large chunk of NW Gainesville went out for a couple hours already ...
... just want to say - This ain't fun ... :mad:
Carry on ...
Click to expand...
Yikes.
An extreme wind warning was issued for the projected landfall location . I haven't ever seen a product like that before.
 
The winds in north Georgia seem to be on track with what the Euro had progged so far, does this bode for some of those higher wind estimates to maybe yield results? I know we originally maybe thought those could have been overdone.....
 
Here's a couple we don't see too often ... :(

MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL11_ww1_1280x720.jpg


Hur_Track2.gif
 
Not sure how long it's going to be after Irma before we see this kind of widespread warnings over a tropical system...I'll be happy when this is over.
 
Looks like recon is about to punch through the center again shortly.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looks like recon is about to punch through the center again shortly.
Click to expand...
The NWS hourly forecast don't even have us at tropical sustained winds for the event yet we are under a warning ??? Lol anyways, I haven't checked the latest data but has it backed off on the winds delta.. for instance, last night/ early this morning we were at 42 with 60 gusts now 37 and 52 gusts
 
Probably been asked but with power and internet in and out, looking back is hard - would rather read forward while I can
Quick question - just looked at radar for the 1st time in an hour; looks like the eye is collapsing - am I seeing that right; what's up?
 
EastAtlwx said:
The NWS hourly forecast don't even have us at tropical sustained winds for the event yet we are under a warning ??? Lol anyways, I haven't checked the latest data but has it backed off on the winds delta.. for instance, last night/ early this morning we were at 42 with 60 gusts now 37 and 52 gusts
Click to expand...
GFS is a little less this morning, but still strong TS force gusts for sure. to be fair though, the GFS has always been lower than the euro. EURO wasn't any different last night. we will see on the new run.
 
EastAtlwx said:
The NWS hourly forecast don't even have us at tropical sustained winds for the event yet we are under a warning ??? Lol anyways, I haven't checked the latest data but has it backed off on the winds delta
Click to expand...
For
deltadog03 said:
GFS is a little less this morning, but still strong TS force gusts for sure. to be fair though, the GFS has always been lower than the euro. EURO wasn't any different last night. we will see on the new run.
Click to expand...
wasnt it the 6z gfs I heard was stronger.. then 12z backed off?
 
pcbjr said:
Probably been asked but with power and internet in and out, looking back is hard - would rather read forward while I can
Quick question - just looked at radar for the 1st time in an hour; looks like the eye is collapsing - am I seeing that right; what's up?
Click to expand...
Yes Phil, the eye has been looking fairly ragged most of the morning. But the max sustained winds are sticking at 130, so doesn't appear to have an impact yet.
 
I dare say this is the best she has looked all morning. (outside of the keys landfall obviously). The southern eye wall according to radar is actually trying to close off. oh, and that WV loop I posted before, you can still see the tilting I was talking about before and that the western quad is actually not as restricted.
 
skywatcher said:
Huge shout out to Shawn for developing the southernwx.com/Irma page for us. It's been my quick reference for everything during this storm. Thanks Shawn!! :)
Click to expand...

No problem! I could have put more there, but such short notice it was hard for me to find sources that automatically updated without me having to manually change stuff!

And this satellite/track scares me. I'd be sweating if I were in Tampa right now.
 
deltadog03 said:
I dare say this is the best she has looked all morning. (outside of the keys landfall obviously). The southern eye wall according to radar is actually trying to close off. oh, and that WV loop I posted before, you can still see the tilting I was talking about before and that the western quad is actually not as restricted.
Click to expand...
Does appear looking at the WV loop dry being burped out...plus this the area I mentioned if she were to make another run would be near this area
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top