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Pattern October Thread

Great news for @Myfrotho704_ , @Lickwx , @NorthDFWwx , @tennessee storm , and others who prefer warmth: this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active members and the EPS has done well recently: ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015 (1).png\


These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Edit: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month!
 
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GaWx said:
Great news for @Myfrotho704_ , @Lickwx , @NorthDFWwx DFW , @tennessee storm , and others who prefer warmth: this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active members and the EPS has done well recently: View attachment 91883\


These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Edit: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias thereover the last month!
Click to expand...
Arguably a extremely similar pattern to March 2012, which broke many records across eastern NA, doesn’t look that hot but that overall H5 pattern is about the best you can get for widespread eastern US/NA warmth
Aleutian ridge ? ✅
Deep Trough/ vortex around western CAN/PNW/AK ?✅
I mean it’s almost a carbon copy of March 2012, very La Niña feel to it
3EBF5FA5-A2BB-4401-8718-F21FB2D67831.pngA415CE68-E082-432C-8FF1-61D02B2C7221.png194E28D5-FBA2-4193-9F44-DFC00D72DDB2.png0479A1E8-9E4B-49EB-88F3-E9950F328EAD.gif
 
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I’m fully convinced now that the Gfs is out to lunch with regards to a dry solution .. even icon has a fairly wet system and also fairly prolonged probably one of our first long rain events of the dark season … nothing heavy just consistent rains and with the flow and upper low I don’t see how it’s wrong 4441E07C-C6AD-4D76-AD7F-FEEC298B25CF.png
 
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GaWx said:
Great news for @Myfrotho704_ , @Lickwx , @NorthDFWwx , @tennessee storm , and others who prefer warmth: this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active members and the EPS has done well recently: View attachment 91883\


These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Edit: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month!
Click to expand...
Myfrotho704_ said:
Arguably a extremely similar pattern to March 2012, which broke many records across eastern NA, doesn’t look that hot but that overall H5 pattern is about the best you can get for widespread eastern US/NA warmth
Aleutian ridge ? ✅
Deep Trough/ vortex around western CAN/PNW/AK ?✅
I mean it’s almost a carbon copy of March 2012, very La Niña feel to it
View attachment 91884View attachment 91885View attachment 91886View attachment 91887
Click to expand...

FWD has already bumped the highs for Sunday - Thursday into the mid 80s, and strongly hinted at 90s returning by next weekend. :cool:

This would almost make up for our god awful April / May, aside from the complete dearth of severe weather continuing.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Arguably a extremely similar pattern to March 2012, which broke many records across eastern NA, doesn’t look that hot but that overall H5 pattern is about the best you can get for widespread eastern US/NA warmth
Aleutian ridge ? ✅
Deep Trough/ vortex around western CAN/PNW/AK ?✅
I mean it’s almost a carbon copy of March 2012, very La Niña feel to it
View attachment 91884View attachment 91885View attachment 91886View attachment 91887
Click to expand...

El Nino we get a -pna
Neutral and we get a -pna
La Nina and we get a -pna.

"MJO.exe has stopped working"
 
Lickwx said:
Persistent mid to upper 80s well into November ? I don’t remember that one chief . You sure you got the right location and year ?
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Yes. IT got 86 in NOvember. That is mid to upper 80s. THAT IS NOT TROLLING!@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
 
cd2play said:
It was for weeks. It got almost 90! It lasted from about Oct 20 - Nov 5. That's more than one day! I'm actually worse than Birdman, ain't I? So are you
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I remember Birmingham was in the upper 80s until mid November. I think we had no rain for 60 to 70 days.
 
Bham 99 said:
It wasn't a joke I was being serious
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Birmingham had 4 days start of the month in the 80s only … then one random day mid month . Yeah your right though Raleigh and eastern nc have mostly missed out on the record warmth rest of the south got this decade . Charlotte doesn’t though. Remember a month where there was a 5 degree difference in averages ( ok it was probably 4) between here and charlotte . Y’all are due some cold man. Might be changing though, much below average across south but not here this past September .
 
Think this will be the decade Raleigh and Richmond are warm while the rest of the south isn’t . No more January 2017 and March 2018 s .This September was kind of like that actually . Virginia was above average for once .
 
Lickwx said:
Think this will be the decade Raleigh and Richmond are warm while the rest of the south isn’t . No more January 2017 and March 2018 s .This September was kind of like that actually . Virginia was above average for once .
Click to expand...
You’re so weenie with these comments cmon Liz man this year is a early December 2018 REDUX
 
Ggs finally looks wetter and here is the CMC giving us a healthy dosing over several days … what a stretch of cloudy and rainy weather we could be in for .. only reason for these totals are cause of the heavy precip rates CMC has with two waves of rain .. I don’t know if they would be that intense but a widespread 2-3 inches seems plausible at this rate for a lot of central and western NC especially 91FF06BC-6A75-4590-A14B-2217403A1365.png
 
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