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Pattern October Thread

JHS said:
I guess it could end up being like 1989-1990 too. A very cold and wintry Dec, then early spring weather the rest of the way.
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Some of the pattern progression that the models are showing are very similar to both the Fall of 1989 and 2010. 1989 was entering a 2nd year LaNina like this year…temperatures were roughly around average to slightly above for most of the Fall but then there was a first real big push of cold air right before Thanksgiving along with a big east coast winter storm on the holiday. Then of course we saw that December stay quite cold with another big winter storm for the western and central Carolinas around the 10th and then of course the big Arctic outbreak and coastal blizzard right around Christmas. After about 3-4 more weeks of average to slightly below average, the SER flexed in late January and the rest of the season was above average minus a just a few quick in and out cold shots.
 
Chazwin said:
Some of the pattern progression that the models are showing are very similar to both the Fall of 1989 and 2010. 1989 was entering a 2nd year LaNina like this year…temperatures were roughly around average to slightly above for most of the Fall but then there was a first real big push of cold air right before Thanksgiving along with a big east coast winter storm on the holiday. Then of course we saw that December stay quite cold with another big winter storm for the western and central Carolinas around the 10th and then of course the big Arctic outbreak and coastal blizzard right around Christmas. After about 3-4 more weeks of average to slightly below average, the SER flexed in late January and the rest of the season was above average minus a just a few quick in and out cold shots.
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One thing we are missing from the fall of 1989 is of course a major hurricane hitting the southeast coast. I think that shook up the pattern a good bit and then of course that major system in mid November that caused a major tornado in Huntsville AL. That's the one that set the stage for late November and all of December I believe. I may be wrong, but I think that big arctic outbreak before Christmas may be the last time I saw single digit temps here. Jan 2014 came awfully close but did not make it.
 
JHS said:
One thing we are missing from the fall of 1989 is of course a major hurricane hitting the southeast coast. I think that shook up the pattern a good bit and then of course that major system in mid November that caused a major tornado in Huntsville AL. That's the one that set the stage for late November and all of December I believe. I may be wrong, but I think that big arctic outbreak before Christmas may be the last time I saw single digit temps here. Jan 2014 came awfully close but did not make it.
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I think the system in mid November that year had a bigger overall impact on the pattern than Hugo did… as things stayed fairly close to average for the most part minus a couple CADs until that system in mid November. Speaking of which that system brought some severe with into the Carolinas as well… the home I grew up in actually had two more trees fall from that system… most likely they had been weakened by Hugo a couple months before… and then one more fell during the winter storm around 12/10 due to the weight of ice
 
JHS said:
One thing we are missing from the fall of 1989 is of course a major hurricane hitting the southeast coast. I think that shook up the pattern a good bit and then of course that major system in mid November that caused a major tornado in Huntsville AL. That's the one that set the stage for late November and all of December I believe. I may be wrong, but I think that big arctic outbreak before Christmas may be the last time I saw single digit temps here. Jan 2014 came awfully close but did not make it.
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Big artic outbreak mid December 89 was impressive indeed… it didn’t get out the single digits for highs that Friday with wind chills around minus 30 to minus 40 here in west Tennessee… but that was pretty
Much all winter that whole season.
 
tennessee storm said:
Big artic outbreak mid December 89 was impressive indeed… it didn’t get out the single digits for highs that Friday with wind chills around minus 30 to minus 40 here in west Tennessee… but that was pretty
Much all winter that whole season.
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The wind chills were calculated differently back then weren't they ?
 
I wonder how many times we are going to see the phrase "step down to colder" over the next 2 weeks with the consecutive rockies/plains systems

There should be 3 maybe 4 but it's going to take until the 3rd or 4th for us to feel any effects and unless they build a -nao it isn't going to be a true step down to colder pattern at last for the SE and probably the EC in general
 
SD said:
I wonder how many times we are going to see the phrase "step down to colder" over the next 2 weeks with the consecutive rockies/plains systems

There should be 3 maybe 4 but it's going to take until the 3rd or 4th for us to feel any effects and unless they build a -nao it isn't going to be a true step down to colder pattern at last for the SE and probably the EC in general
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If what models say is true maybe this little cyclonic system forming off the SE coast will help reel in the drier cooler air from the NE and filter it down the SE still nothing that makes it feel cold but certainly will have us feeling nice out
 
I noticed the 00z GFS really backed off on the retrogression of that closed off low.

In fact, it even pops a couple 594dm ridges over Texas in the long range.
 
BTW, models have been busting big time with the rain here so far.

Finally getting our first overcast/cool day today, but it's looking mostly dry.
 
12z GFS is printing out 4" to 5" totals over the Atlanta area now, through 144 hours. My soil is still wet from the last round of September rains. This is like September, the sequel. Sequels are never as good as the originals. this upper level low is holding up the delivery of dryer/cooler continental air and pumping in the Gulf of Mexico!

Now 6.2" over my county through 159 hours... I'm not complaining about the rain, though. This is usually a dry month for me. Just would like some cold air!
 
Gfs is going steal one here or be way wrong for our rain totals. Once it develops that strong coastal trough it just cuts off and rain and no other model really has that
 
SD said:
Gfs is going steal one here or be way wrong for our rain totals. Once it develops that strong coastal trough it just cuts off and rain and no other model really has that
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Regardless we’re looking at a period of lots of cloud cover which means at least below normal highs which would feel nice but the humidity and Southerly flow will lead to above normal low temps .. but who cares I’m sleeping lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Regardless we’re looking at a period of lots of cloud cover which means at least below normal highs which would feel nice but the humidity and Southerly flow will lead to above normal low temps .. but who cares I’m sleeping lol
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Gfs has a NEly flow at the sfc but 80s for highs and upper 60s dews, then it has a good amount of divergence aloft but no rain. Does not compute with me I just don't understand
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Is the gfs doing something wonky in the mid levels keeping that area dry? I dont know if That would effect the actual rain output but honestly events like these usually end up on the wetter side than usual .. what about the Gfs ensembles?
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To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
 
SD said:
To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
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The NAM will figure this all out for us! Our king!
 
SD said:
To be honest I can't really figure out why the gfs is dry other than the thing off shore. The gefs are a little drier this run but they are going to follow the OP closely anyway. Like you said this pattern is usually a big rain winner for us. The cmc and UK seem more realistic but probably a little overdone in the case of the cmc
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What does low and mid level moisture transport look like on the GFS?
 
This evolution is similar to may 2020s upper level low, worth noting as the ULL pulled away to our NE, there was a MCS 2 days later as a MCV got caught in the flow, sucks tho because cape is less now
Per climo 492E32CD-E9D4-4D16-B5FF-60E2E099C91E.png1B5D28C7-BEE5-4E9F-9875-3ABBBCF960A1.png31188C16-C1A7-44B2-B22A-31670C619BE9.png
 
I need rain! They actually mentioned drought begets drought in the AFD the other day! It’s been so dry, I’m worried it will continue into winter! It was supposed to be in the 70s today and cloudy and rainy, it’s full sun, no rain in sight, tomorrow is drying up too! This makes 7 days in a row in the 80s, there is a 0.07% chance of that happening in September, per the local news last night! ?
 
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