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Pattern Swamptember 2021

SD said:
If either today or tomorrow stay sub 80 that'll be the first time that has happened around here without rain/clouds/high dews since late may/ early June
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Yeah before LaNina kicks in and puts us back in the soup.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeah before LaNina kicks in and puts us back in the soup.


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Most of our recent 2nd year ninas were AN in Sept/Oct with even a few 80s in October. Looks like most has a pretty significant cold shot in November with highs in the 40s.

Looking at what's out there right now warming after the 10th looks like a good bet but the ridge position will make the difference between warm days/cool nights/low dews or hot days/warm nights/high dews
 
60/60, but that might be off as there was a heavy dew first thing this morning. There wasn't a cloud in the sky at 6am, and the Moon and Stars just looked clearer.

I think 50's is almost a guarantee for me.
 
Looking at the eps the 90th percentile is well into the 90s after the 10th with the max member getting close to 100. There is an obvious signal that it could be quite warm during the mid month period on highs so I wouldn't dance on summers grave yet
 
SD said:
Looking at the eps the 90th percentile is well into the 90s after the 10th with the max member getting close to 100. There is an obvious signal that it could be quite warm during the mid month period on highs so I wouldn't dance on summers grave yet
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But.... It's september.
 
SD said:
Looking at the eps the 90th percentile is well into the 90s after the 10th with the max member getting close to 100. There is an obvious signal that it could be quite warm during the mid month period on highs so I wouldn't dance on summers grave yet
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The big question is if it's warm will it be humid with dews in the 70s or will it be more of a dry heat ?
 
SD said:
Icon holds the front up early next week as the SER flexes ahead of the next trough. Might be enough to increase rain chances.

It's also funneling some of the moisture from 91l north by 144
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I think next week has a legit shot at being very active.
 
SD said:
Most of our recent 2nd year ninas were AN in Sept/Oct with even a few 80s in October. Looks like most has a pretty significant cold shot in November with highs in the 40s.

Looking at what's out there right now warming after the 10th looks like a good bet but the ridge position will make the difference between warm days/cool nights/low dews or hot days/warm nights/high dews
Click to expand...
Do we really count this as a year 2 of La Niña? I say that because we did go into a period of a few months with a neutral ENSO. It’s not been like last year where the Niña had started by the middle of summer, while this year it’s just now beginning.
 
If I got locked away, and we lost it all today, tell me honestly would you still love me the same....
 
Chazwin said:
Do we really count this as a year 2 of La Niña? I say that because we did go into a period of a few months with a neutral ENSO. It’s not been like last year where the Niña had started by the middle of summer, while this year it’s just now beginning.
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For me personally since we are coming out of a nina and we stayed relatively close when we went cold neutral I don't think we did a lot to change the overall background state. The later cooling might change some of the effects when we get into the 2nd half of fall into winter but I just can't see how this fall wouldn't act as a whole like a 2nd year weak Niña.

Edit to add the years I quickly looked at were 17, 11, 08, 99, 84
 
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What a NICE DAY on the Beaches..

High79º
Low 69º
Humidity 71%
Dew Point 65.8º
Rainfall 0.02 inch
Pressure 29.82
Winds.. NNE @ 11mph
 
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