• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

July Fry 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.
This is true. I bet there are some folks around Angier that have had more than enough rain while your house in particular has had little. Its just assumed that every area has been hit by a storm if it's been in your vicinity. So not the case....
Yeah it's interesting how the mindset works its the same with snow.
 
I read one comment that stated they live in JoCo, they didn't receive any rain and her husband didn't water the plants either because of all the talk of rain... this stuff frustrates me. Some areas in JoCo got multiple inches, look at a radar every once in a while, look outside, figure it out stop blaming, good grief, I'll stop.

Didn't rain imby, but you don't see me fussin' at Tim Buckly. Not his fault it rained 5 miles away, but not on me.
 
Imbyism is getting out of hand and I hate it for TV mets who are particularly more exposed to the public. Additionally just water the damn plants you aren't going to hurt them if it rains. I had to get up at 230 and run outside and fight an owl to turn off the sprinklers this morning

I'mma need the full story now... How can you leave us hanging like this...
 
I'm just a geek who doesn't understand much of the scientific discussion at all, just enjoy following along as systems are tracked and forecasted.

That said, I've always been frustrated by forecasts that begin and end with "chance of rain is 50%". What's that really telling me?

What if they described the day using three percentages instead of one? 1- The chance it will rain at least .01 during the daylight hours; 2- The chance that it will rain for >3 hours during the daylight hours; 3- The chance of >.75" of rain during the daylight hours (and a separate set for night).

So 70% / 10% / 10% is a VERY different day than 70% / 70% / 50%.
 
I'mma need the full story now... How can you leave us hanging like this...
I have an owl that has learned to turn on the flood light since its motion detected. He's a ----- and repeatedly sets it off runs away then comes back when it turns off to turn it back on. This in turn alerts my phone all night that there is motion
 
I'm just a geek who doesn't understand much of the scientific discussion at all, just enjoy following along as systems are tracked and forecasted.

That said, I've always been frustrated by forecasts that begin and end with "chance of rain is 50%". What's that really telling me?

What if they described the day using three percentages instead of one? 1- The chance it will rain at least .01 during the daylight hours; 2- The chance that it will rain for >3 hours during the daylight hours; 3- The chance of >.75" of rain during the daylight hours (and a separate set for night).

So 70% / 10% / 10% is a VERY different day than 70% / 70% / 50%.

50% mean it either will or it won't. take a guess, you got a 50% chance of being right or wrong.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
Currently 98*F at DFW and 100*F at KDAL.

Naturally, some cirrostratus did fill back in by late morning and has stuck around, but we still might be able to tag 100*F any way (it's not that thick or completely overcast).
 
I'm just a geek who doesn't understand much of the scientific discussion at all, just enjoy following along as systems are tracked and forecasted.

That said, I've always been frustrated by forecasts that begin and end with "chance of rain is 50%". What's that really telling me?

What if they described the day using three percentages instead of one? 1- The chance it will rain at least .01 during the daylight hours; 2- The chance that it will rain for >3 hours during the daylight hours; 3- The chance of >.75" of rain during the daylight hours (and a separate set for night).

So 70% / 10% / 10% is a VERY different day than 70% / 70% / 50%.
It means that 50% of the viewing area is suppose to see rain … also means 50% will not
 
Very surprised at no flash flood warning. Storms have been training over this area southeast of Birmingham for a little while now.
3d2064b1a70fd0c82c2359f38cf0c11b.jpg
deb286f8a3e0084ff448c838a3eb5a99.jpg


Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 
It means that 50% of the viewing area is suppose to see rain … also means 50% will not
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??‍♂️
 
NWS Raleigh at 9:50p Monday 7/27/21:

"the threat for any severe weather or
flooding seems likely to be over. Some gusty winds will still be
possible with the remaining thunderstorms. A slight chance of
showers remains after midnight, but nothing organized is expected.”

Might be the biggest fail Ive seen from them in ..... days.
 
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??‍♂️

Here's the *PREFERRED* and *COMMON* meaning of PoP amongst actual meteorologists.


...A video went around that claimed that a 30% chance of rain doesn’t mean that there’s a… 30% chance that it might rain that day. Instead, it means there’s a 100% chance it will rain, but said precipitation will only cover 30% of a given area. Cue the pandemonium. Who would have assumed that was the correct interpretation? People felt lied to. But for every viewer expressing dismay, another expressed skepticism. How could we be sure this random TikToker had it right? (Spoiler: They didn’t.)

The TikToker — who didn't respond to Refinery29’s request for comment by press time — was incorrect
...I asked Castle Williams, PhD, a social science contractor supporting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Research's Weather Program Office, to explain PoP to me as though I was a precocious fourth grader...

...His preferred definition is this: “[PoP measures] the likelihood that you’ll see rain at any given point within the forecast area within a 12 hour time period,” he tells me. His interpretation is more in line with the common understanding of PoP — not the TikTok.

Mindy Beerends, Meteorologist-in-Charge at the National Weather Service Center Weather Service Unit in Indiana, has a more technical definition: “It’s the chance of precipitation, which we define as 100th of an inch of rain falling at a particular point over a certain period of time,” she says. Beerends’ explanation falls in line with the official NOAA definition of PoP, and both also seem to debunk the viral TikTok...
 

Attachments

  • 1627417362659.gif
    1627417362659.gif
    42 bytes · Views: 3
No grass cutting for me for the 3rd day in a row. Rain keeps getting in my way
60865a344202ec75807bd83d3d96f2ca.jpg


Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??‍♂️

No. 30% of chance of rain mean that there is a 30% chance that the forecast grid in question had 0.01" precipitation.


What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area?

The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain. So, in this example, there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest!

Also,

To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01" inch of more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified. Using a 40% probability of rain as an example, it does not mean (1) that 40% of the area will be covered by precipitation at given time in the given forecast area or (2) that you will be seeing precipitation 40% of the time in the given forecast area for the given forecast time period.

\Adding Source

 
Flash flood warning for south of bham. Rains going sideways at my work preventing me from working lol.
93dfc2c209bf6fa8bbc9084e45ed43ba.jpg


Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top