Yeah it's interesting how the mindset works its the same with snow.
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July Fry 2021
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Looks like euro is not gonna push the front thru next week resulting in lots of rain, dews in the 70s and temps in the 80s
smast16
Member
Didn't rain imby, but you don't see me fussin' at Tim Buckly. Not his fault it rained 5 miles away, but not on me.
smast16
Member
LickWx
Member
Whamby. Birdman . Quite the fiasco .
Gary M
Member
I'm just a geek who doesn't understand much of the scientific discussion at all, just enjoy following along as systems are tracked and forecasted.
That said, I've always been frustrated by forecasts that begin and end with "chance of rain is 50%". What's that really telling me?
What if they described the day using three percentages instead of one? 1- The chance it will rain at least .01 during the daylight hours; 2- The chance that it will rain for >3 hours during the daylight hours; 3- The chance of >.75" of rain during the daylight hours (and a separate set for night).
So 70% / 10% / 10% is a VERY different day than 70% / 70% / 50%.
That said, I've always been frustrated by forecasts that begin and end with "chance of rain is 50%". What's that really telling me?
What if they described the day using three percentages instead of one? 1- The chance it will rain at least .01 during the daylight hours; 2- The chance that it will rain for >3 hours during the daylight hours; 3- The chance of >.75" of rain during the daylight hours (and a separate set for night).
So 70% / 10% / 10% is a VERY different day than 70% / 70% / 50%.
Rain printer go brrr 
Heat index 99. I’m sure it’s worse elsewhere but this is oppressive
I have an owl that has learned to turn on the flood light since its motion detected. He's a ----- and repeatedly sets it off runs away then comes back when it turns off to turn it back on. This in turn alerts my phone all night that there is motion
smast16
Member
50% mean it either will or it won't. take a guess, you got a 50% chance of being right or wrong.
smast16
Member
LickWx
Member
92 dew 76 heat index 104 . I’m in heaven !
Currently 98*F at DFW and 100*F at KDAL.
Naturally, some cirrostratus did fill back in by late morning and has stuck around, but we still might be able to tag 100*F any way (it's not that thick or completely overcast).
Naturally, some cirrostratus did fill back in by late morning and has stuck around, but we still might be able to tag 100*F any way (it's not that thick or completely overcast).
It means that 50% of the viewing area is suppose to see rain … also means 50% will not
Got our HI into triple digits first time all year I believe. 101
Feels amazing outside
Where storms?
Looks like not there either
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Very surprised at no flash flood warning. Storms have been training over this area southeast of Birmingham for a little while now.
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Gary M
Member
And really that tells me very little about what kind of day it's going to be, no?
And 100*F it is at DFW as of 3pm.
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??
Well.... actually...@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??
Yeah you just have to look at it as there’s a chance the higher the chance the more chance you see rain but it’s never a guarantee unless it’s 100%
Death...
LickWx
Member
Last summer man this time of year a lot of NC was experiencing that kind of weather . Down east especially . I’m envious.
Upstate sink zone winning again
Hi res models went from super soaker today to nothing
smast16
Member
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
NWS Raleigh at 9:50p Monday 7/27/21:
"the threat for any severe weather or
flooding seems likely to be over. Some gusty winds will still be
possible with the remaining thunderstorms. A slight chance of
showers remains after midnight, but nothing organized is expected.”
Might be the biggest fail Ive seen from them in ..... days.
"the threat for any severe weather or
flooding seems likely to be over. Some gusty winds will still be
possible with the remaining thunderstorms. A slight chance of
showers remains after midnight, but nothing organized is expected.”
Might be the biggest fail Ive seen from them in ..... days.
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??
Here's the *PREFERRED* and *COMMON* meaning of PoP amongst actual meteorologists.
What Does It Really Mean When There's A 20% Chance Of Rain? It's Complicated
The truth is, not all meteorologists agree on how probability of precipitation is calculated.
...A video went around that claimed that a 30% chance of rain doesn’t mean that there’s a… 30% chance that it might rain that day. Instead, it means there’s a 100% chance it will rain, but said precipitation will only cover 30% of a given area. Cue the pandemonium. Who would have assumed that was the correct interpretation? People felt lied to. But for every viewer expressing dismay, another expressed skepticism. How could we be sure this random TikToker had it right? (Spoiler: They didn’t.)
The TikToker — who didn't respond to Refinery29’s request for comment by press time — was incorrect...I asked Castle Williams, PhD, a social science contractor supporting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Research's Weather Program Office, to explain PoP to me as though I was a precocious fourth grader...
...His preferred definition is this: “[PoP measures] the likelihood that you’ll see rain at any given point within the forecast area within a 12 hour time period,” he tells me. His interpretation is more in line with the common understanding of PoP — not the TikTok.
Mindy Beerends, Meteorologist-in-Charge at the National Weather Service Center Weather Service Unit in Indiana, has a more technical definition: “It’s the chance of precipitation, which we define as 100th of an inch of rain falling at a particular point over a certain period of time,” she says. Beerends’ explanation falls in line with the official NOAA definition of PoP, and both also seem to debunk the viral TikTok...
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Zander98al
Guest
No grass cutting for me for the 3rd day in a row. Rain keeps getting in my way 
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smast16
Member
@SouthATLwx this is actually what the percentages mean .. look it up nothing weenie about it .. if they say 70% it means 70% of that viewing area is suppose to see rain and 30% won’t … just informing ??
No. 30% of chance of rain mean that there is a 30% chance that the forecast grid in question had 0.01" precipitation.
FAQ - What is the Meaning of PoP
www.weather.gov
Also,
\Adding Source
smast16
Member
I was under the impression it was a blend of confidence and coverage
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Flash flood warning for south of bham. Rains going sideways at my work preventing me from working lol.
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