Although true I bet it’ll pick up because it doesn’t see any convections already firing .. solid area along the mountains already should translate nicely
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July Fry 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
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Hrrr weakens these and just had a dry ofb, I think different 
LickWx
Member
90 with a dew of 76 heat index 102. Wonder what cape is like, must be pretty high.
Got some thunder
The overall evolution of the next 3 days should be fun to watch. Highly disturbed flow with a decent amount of jet dynamics aloft will aid in storm development with the previous days convection and remnant boundaries being the catalysts for storm development and/or suppression. I'm a little surprised at how mediocre the coverage and rain totals are to be honest with a ripe setup to fire off large areas of storms with good coverage. It's not often I'm more bullish than the models but this is one of those times
Ml cape of freaking 3000 go outside and clap your hands a few times might be enough to get something going. Just not a lot to sustain updrafts right now but that gets better toward dark. Hopefully these little cape eaters don't ruin a better chance of organized stuff later
Lol hrrr mixing Jonesville down to 57 later 
Winning!
Woof.
Ukmet went all in
Rah
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...
Same front, different day. Frankly, the models show the front that
will be over the region Monday morning making little progress
throughout the entire week. The front will eventually weaken and
serve as less of a forcing mechanism, but at least at the beginning
of the week, there are indicators from model guidance that there
could be isolated areas with extremely heavy rainfall. The 12Z NAM
put out some bulls-eyes of 5 inches of rain in 24 hours, the 00Z GFS
did something similar, and a 00Z run of the European model also
showed the possibility for heavy rainfall as well. It is too early
to pinpoint any specific locations that could receive heavy rainfall
(so no flash flood watch will be issued at this time), but the
threat is definitely there. This is already highlighted in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Through the extended forecast, Monday
still appears to be the day with both the greatest coverage of rain
as well as the most intense rain. There will be a diminishing trend
through the week, with rainfall likely across southern counties on
Tuesday, then chance pops on Wednesday before at least one dry day
is possible on Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the forecast for Friday and Saturday.
With the extensive cloud cover and rainfall on Monday, that should
be the coolest day of the week, with highs only in the low to mid
80s. Temperatures return to values near climatology on Wednesday and
will remain that way into the weekend
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...
Same front, different day. Frankly, the models show the front that
will be over the region Monday morning making little progress
throughout the entire week. The front will eventually weaken and
serve as less of a forcing mechanism, but at least at the beginning
of the week, there are indicators from model guidance that there
could be isolated areas with extremely heavy rainfall. The 12Z NAM
put out some bulls-eyes of 5 inches of rain in 24 hours, the 00Z GFS
did something similar, and a 00Z run of the European model also
showed the possibility for heavy rainfall as well. It is too early
to pinpoint any specific locations that could receive heavy rainfall
(so no flash flood watch will be issued at this time), but the
threat is definitely there. This is already highlighted in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Through the extended forecast, Monday
still appears to be the day with both the greatest coverage of rain
as well as the most intense rain. There will be a diminishing trend
through the week, with rainfall likely across southern counties on
Tuesday, then chance pops on Wednesday before at least one dry day
is possible on Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the forecast for Friday and Saturday.
With the extensive cloud cover and rainfall on Monday, that should
be the coolest day of the week, with highs only in the low to mid
80s. Temperatures return to values near climatology on Wednesday and
will remain that way into the weekend
Downeastnc
Member
Eventually this pattern of stalling fronts and heavy rain are going to bite us in the ass......either by focusing a tropical rem low and or getting the rivers full right before a system comes in.....
BHS1975
Member
Well, at least we'll be able to temporarily relocate to Jonesville, which will be entirely safe from all rain and flooding ever.
I'd keep an eye on as early as next weekend into the next week as the trough lifts. Going to be an old front, low sfc pressures and maybe a mcv or 2 floating around. Good setup to make a mess with a tropical system that gets pushed west by the building bermuda ridge
This model stinks
JHS
Member
Spartanburg, Gaffney, and Union too along with a few other small towns in the 3 county area.
JHS
Member
Seems like the hrrr does best in the spring with highly forced setups and showing junk convection
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