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The June Thread 2021

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Can’t wait for my very large hail! This better not bust!!!
 
Lickwx said:
Is there precip though ? That’s what gives these temps any legitimacy . We aren’t going to be 66 under a stratus deck because it’s cloudy alone.
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No precip but a deep moist flow from sfc to around H8 out of the NE as the coastal trough sets up around the beaches. Probably wouldn't have much sun especially Thursday. No 66 would be tough but if we have a solid stratus deck with drizzle until late afternoon 70-73 might be it
 
Lickwx said:
Reminds me of the cool shot last week. Coldest day in the forecast is 75 right now. 79 if I go with the NWS.Why do you even do this to yourself.
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So angry when it gets below average .. sorry it’s not upper 90s and 100% humidity … I’m sure you’ll get your time ? you could move in with @SouthATLwx he gets it bad down in Texas ??
 
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SD said:
No precip but a deep moist flow from sfc to around H8 out of the NE as the coastal trough sets up around the beaches. Probably wouldn't have much sun especially Thursday. No 66 would be tough but if we have a solid stratus deck with drizzle until late afternoon 70-73 might be it
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That’s reasonable and surprise surprise it’s the June mean lowest max ... 73. So sorry Nicky you aren’t getting anything exceptional.
 
Lickwx said:
That’s reasonable and surprise surprise it’s the June mean lowest max ... 73. So sorry Nicky you aren’t getting anything exceptional.
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I agree that it’s nothing exceptional, but the number of cooler days this month does seem unusual. There’s a very good chance that I finish June with more sub 80 degree days than above 90 degree days.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that it’s nothing exceptional, but the number of cooler days this month does seem unusual. There’s a very good chance that I finish June with more sub 80 degree days than above 90 degree days.
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How many have you had ? RDU has had 1 day sub 80 with a high of 79.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that it’s nothing exceptional, but the number of cooler days this month does seem unusual. There’s a very good chance that I finish June with more sub 80 degree days than above 90 degree days.
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Just went through the eps members and really there's no sign of heat through the next 10 days. Things may start warming by July 4th weekend but it seems like that's when we really start to roast anyway
 
SD said:
Just went through the eps members and really there's no sign of heat through the next 10 days. Things may start warming by July 4th weekend but it seems like that's when we really start to roast anyway
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What’s the mean? Our average high is approaching 90 , don’t expect anything like 80-84 for the mean high on the next 10 days . Is it more like 85-87?
 
Lickwx said:
That’s reasonable and surprise surprise it’s the June mean lowest max ... 73. So sorry Nicky you aren’t getting anything exceptional.
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Below average is comfortable I’m having a grand time thank you for your concern … in other news looks like we will have to wait for July for any actual heat .. when that arrives ask me again that’ll be the real heart break ??
 
NoSnowATL said:
It hasn’t been really dry. Dry = warm. As long as we stay somewhat wet you won’t see a major heat waves this summer. I still think September and August we bake because I am a 50/50 guesser.
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If we follow climo for a neutral ENSO then things may actually be very pleasant this fall for the East. It may be a bit active precip wise due to the STJ becoming active, but there should also be some good dry autumn days with temperatures around average… cool nights and mild days
 
Chazwin said:
If we follow climo for a neutral ENSO then things may actually be very pleasant this fall for the East. It may be a bit active precip wise due to the STJ becoming active, but there should also be some good dry autumn days with temperatures around average… cool nights and mild days
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Neutral gives us more snow/ice too later.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Lickwx said:
Do you want to make a bet it ends up warmer? Mean high between now and then will be 87. Boom
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Wouldn't be shocked. Mean qpf is just over 4 here so a lot of the cool is likely a result of storms/debris clouds so we could easily over/under perform the means

As long as we keep the heat ridge stays in the SW and any bermuda ridge isn't nosing in we aren't going to get that hot other than some heat releases
 
If that convergence zone sets up, a jet will form, and storms develop, set up just under the slot. I think it moves east at first, then backs up
 
I’m gonna keep y’all abreast of my storms today! 925D01F3-AA17-492F-990D-86097DB0B47D.png
 
Lickwx said:
That and models always showing 100 makes people think that’s normal .
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100+ degree days are not normal for me and I don’t believe we even had an 100 degree day last year or maybe that was the year before .. they aren’t normal around here that’s why they usually come during big heat waves .. when temps are significantly above normal .. they don’t come around too often but when they do they suck
 
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