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The June Thread 2021

JHS said:
If you get a 594-597 ridge on top it will not matter how humid it is or the amount of cape. July 1995 comes to mind here. Dewpoints close to 80 with not even 1 cloud in the sky.
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Depends on energy to, you can definitely get storms under those heights if there’s some sort of weak piece of energy embedded in there, no energy tho yeah it’s hard to get anything
 
JHS said:
If you get a 594-597 ridge on top it will not matter how humid it is or the amount of cape. July 1995 comes to mind here. Dewpoints close to 80 with not even 1 cloud in the sky.
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That was one summer I thought would never end.
 
I can almost see it now .. we good amount of real relief and even a bit of a drought buster this week with storms... yay everyone’s happy and sd’s grass gets f’d with h2o. Then the dome of heat resides over us and the impulses out west and East are far enough away so we get little to nothing again. This will begin to bring back our drought and eventually we get to a point where the moderate drought extends to a much larger portion of the SE maybe some extreme drought becomes Apparent in areas... by now we are in the later medium term into the long term and this is where I think we see long lasting relief from some tropical influences and flows ... I believe then we recover back to a normal state ... just my ideas as of now but let’s just rack up as much rain as we can get this week just in case
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I can almost see it now .. we good amount of real relief and even a bit of a drought buster this week with storms... yay everyone’s happy and sd’s grass gets f’d with h2o. Then the dome of heat resides over us and the impulses out west and East are far enough away so we get little to nothing again. This will begin to bring back our drought and eventually we get to a point where the moderate drought extends to a much larger portion of the SE maybe some extreme drought becomes Apparent in areas... by now we are in the later medium term into the long term and this is where I think we see long lasting relief from some tropical influences and flows ... I believe then we recover back to a normal state ... just my ideas as of now but let’s just rack up as much rain as we can get this week just in case
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Didn't you say a few days ago that you saw no reason for us to worry about drought? Now you're flipping around like the models. Lol. There is literally nothing that screams extreme drought in the SE this year. Even the Climate Prediction Center agrees. I am not saying we're not dry, because we are. But ultimately, I think we will be fine.
 
ryan1234 said:
Didn't you say a few days ago that you saw no reason for us to worry about drought? Now you're flipping around like the models. Lol. There is literally nothing that screams extreme drought in the SE this year. Even the Climate Prediction Center agrees. I am not saying we're not dry, because we are. But ultimately, I think we will be fine.
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Last week I for sure was all on board of the not worrying about drought as models gave no clue as for us to worry about it.. I still honestly believe it’s not going to be a big problem .. we actually go the opposite direction in this next week as I think almost will ge the rains they need to not be worried ... after that there’s some questions and so that’s where I stay wary to say we won’t have any drought problems moving forward but at the same time the dry period is still medium to long range so it has the chance to adjust to a point where we don’t have to worry.. if it stays dry and we stay in between the two impulses perfectly to the point where we get nothing with the combined heat? Yeah I could see drought then beginning to expand and maybe a few areas getting into the extreme drought category for a little ... don’t think that would be widespread at all though
 
Well it looks like 00z models are much more wet in the extended ... things will go back and forth but this looks classic summer pattern with a bit more storm coverage than isolated
 
The NWS had backed off on rain chances for S. FL's East Coast as models were underwhelming due to the position of the upper-level low stretched out over the Bahamas. Consequently, NWS Miami went with a 30% chance tonight, and 60% chance tomorrow. However, over the last 6-12 hours, the 500Mb vorticity has consolidated into a more circular and concentrated area located south of Keys, and there's weak spin at the lower levels circulating around it. It's actually looking more like a Tropical Feature. In any event, any movement further W, or NW, will bring the Bahama convection on the NE and E side of the ULL into the Metro Areas.

Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 2.19.39 AM.png

At 3:00AM, scatter areas of showers are streaming through my area. The Closest station is North Perry Airport in Hollywood. Looks like moisture is going to be lifted from the Caribbean to Florida, and then moisture is going to squeeze into GA to Central and Western North Carolina.
Screen Shot 2021-06-02 at 3.01.57 AM.png
 
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smast16 said:
i need something. that .4" last weekend aint gonna cut it.
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Yeah not gonna lie, the weekend event was a little underwhelming. Although I did pick up .8, my dad 1.1 miles to my east only received .3 and some just to my south got zilch.

That helped me barely cross the 1" threshold for the month of May, so yeah a good soaker would be nice still
 
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metwannabe said:
Yeah not gonna lie, the weekend event was a little underwhelming. Although I did pick up .8, my dad 1.1 miles to my east only received .3 and some just to my south got zilch.

That helped me barely cross the 1" threshold for the month of May, so yeah a good soaker would be nice still
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I know i can't really complain too much, i had 2 storms in the first week of may, but had nothing since then until this past weekend. But I know it's not just my perception, as I have huge cracks running all through the clay in my back yard.
 
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