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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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145453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
The models keep trending faster with Irma overall . A fast track opens the door for an OTS or just offshore solution. Let's hope that continues

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Weatherlover92 said:
Not much change other than location/pressure being slightly higher

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.2°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
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So, 18.2N, 64.0W as of 15Z per NHC. Now compare that to the 1st 2 points of the 5AM track:

INIT 06/0900Z 17.9N 62.6W
12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.6W

So, it got to 64.0W at 1500Z (~now) which is consistent. However, this should be at 18.4N as of 1500Z rather than the actual of only up to 18.2N. So, a little south of the 5AM forecast track. If this isn't just due to a wobble, it is headed a bit south and, therefore, NE PR may get into the SW portion of the eye if it doesn't curve back more WNW in the next few hours. If it ends up being no more north than 18.5N when it crosses 65.2W, my calculations have the SW portion of the eye due to its size near the NE tip of PR. This is going to be close.
 
I have no clue about this storm anymore. The Recon seems to not be supporting 185 mph yet it is still at that, and the pressure was higher before the last advisory and this one was 918 mb, though recon just found 923 mb. It seems much weaker, but I must be missing something. Still insane further up though.
recon_AF305-1311A-IRMA_dropsonde1_20170906-1446.png
 
Yes, the NHC site is slow cause of high traffic. That shouldn't shock you. Lol.

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Brick Tamland said:
I think he was trying to link this video. Looks crazy.

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Wow! It's not just measly pieces of tree branches flying, it's literally large chunks of entire trees flying in the air and on the road like tumbleweed. I don't remember ever seeing anything like that outside of tornado videos.
 
12z GFS is much closer to the northeastern Cuban coast than 6z. There's a decent chance this run could be a tick further west. We'll see.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Wow! It's not just measly pieces of tree branches flying, it's literally large chunks of entire trees flying in the air and on the road like tumbleweed. I don't remember ever seeing anything like that outside of tornado videos.
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I think... that video of the trees flying everywhere is video from a tornado, not Irma related. At least this is what I'm seeing on Twitter
 
this is gonna come ashore just north of Miami it appears, WPB where it sticks out and then probably ride the coast
 
Seems like every other day it's a different trend west versus east.
 
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