cd2play
Member
Fixed
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah 10 day severe threats been failing us .. who woulda thunk it
I don’t know what you mean We’ve had many severe wx events come to fruition already with 2 high risks and several other smaller events
LickWx
Member
In the past 5 years we had our warmest April ever . Back it up quit the anecdotes and back it up.
I think in 1917 we had a flurry in April
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But that was Manhood March, now it got cold and he became April.
Ugh!!!
000
FXUS64 KFWD 180853
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
353 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021
...New Long Term...
The combination of clear skies and lighter surface winds will
yield excellent radiational cooling processes early Wednesday
morning and some patchy frost across parts of the region. Low
temperatures in the 30s are expected across most of North and
Central Texas, with a few areas along and north of I-20 and west
of I-35 dipping to near or below freezing. A Freeze Watch for
parts of North Texas was strongly considered given the average
last freeze for North Texas is usually in mid to late March.
However, we`ll hold off on issuing a watch for now and keep an eye
on trends as high res guidance is able to capture this time
period. Current forecast lows for Wednesday morning at both DFW
and Waco are 38 degrees, which would break the previous records
(39 degrees set in 1918 for DFW and 43 degrees set in 1910 for
Waco) for April 21st.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 180853
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
353 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021
...New Long Term...
The combination of clear skies and lighter surface winds will
yield excellent radiational cooling processes early Wednesday
morning and some patchy frost across parts of the region. Low
temperatures in the 30s are expected across most of North and
Central Texas, with a few areas along and north of I-20 and west
of I-35 dipping to near or below freezing. A Freeze Watch for
parts of North Texas was strongly considered given the average
last freeze for North Texas is usually in mid to late March.
However, we`ll hold off on issuing a watch for now and keep an eye
on trends as high res guidance is able to capture this time
period. Current forecast lows for Wednesday morning at both DFW
and Waco are 38 degrees, which would break the previous records
(39 degrees set in 1918 for DFW and 43 degrees set in 1910 for
Waco) for April 21st.
tennessee storm
Member
Still at day 10 euro ...
I didn't look into much on the Euro but my first thought when looking at the mslp and h5 maps is good thing we likely aren't going to get a quality moisture return before this system
Oof 
tennessee storm
Member
One broad base trough ...I would bet 100 bucks(if I were a betting man) that moisture return is way under modeled there.
If it is that is a very nasty setup.
Yeah the high shifts into a good spot in the SW Atlantic to help feed moisture, just not sure if it's there long enough. Given the time of year it's getting harder and harder to not have at least some instabilityI would bet 100 bucks(if I were a betting man) that moisture return is way under modeled there.
If it is that is a very nasty setup.
Just a minor difference 
cd2play
Member
I don't think next weekend's system is going to work out if your a severe weather weenie. I think the first 2 weeks of May will be hopping, however. Mayhem May?
tennessee storm
Member
I am liking system. End April 27 ish time frame
This is seriously getting old 
That look on the ICON is nasty, gonna be some sort of wedge boundary/stationary boundary with this setup with that SE Canada vortex in place 
If moisture return is there we have big problems. A westerly 500mb wind of 60-70knts. Are you kidding me?
Mr. Golf
Member
Dont yall know with recurving typhoon cool weather will linger???
never fails lol 
LickWx
Member
Yep and high latitude blocking with wonderful heat transport to the snowy polar regions continuing ! Mmmmmm I can smell the winter flowers already .
Of course we get CAD to ruin things here in NC at least it’ll feel nice .. 7 days away too ?
What absolute beautiful weather being depicted coming into short range now ... wouldn’t be surprised to see some freezing temperatures at this rate in the early mornings and then wow look at those afternoon temps and few points ???
Really getting more concerned looking at the 12z models. Starting to get a 3/03/19 vibe.
This is great. Keep the heat away as long as possible.
Euro gets 2000 sbcape to Montgomery with 4000+ in south central MS. Looks like the best wind fields don’t align with the best instability. But as we have seen in previous events, that can change.
Oh no that might make 75 here way too warm! Need more 50s!
Oh noes too hot! 
LickWx
Member
I am all for holding the heat off, summers here are brutal enough. But this weather is the most boring stretch that I can remember in April. We need the heat though. Heat=instability and obviously that equals CAPE. I swear if we get a threat and we end up getting wedged, I am going to lose it!
LickWx
Member
I mean I'm all for holding off 90s but good grief this idea that highs in the 50s are great in April is confusing.
cd2play
Member
There is always that possibility we go from these below normal temps to hot and dry pretty quickly, like we did in May 2019. I'm not expecting that, however. I think we have 2-3 weeks of active weather, then by May 25, heat ridge kicks in.
We need to be below normal every day forever
LickWx
Member
Which is why we want it to be 50 until then . We don’t want any in betweeen actually enjoyable pleasant lovable outdoor weather with low humidity in the 70-85 degree range . That would be too much .
LickWx
Member
I'd be cool with 50s if it was raining. Nothing worse than 50s with a roaring NW wind in late April. It'll feel colder than mid winter
LickWx
Member