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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Did the HMON really just do it again? We laugh, but the winds are up there.:eek:
recon_AF309-0811A-IRMA_dropsonde4_20170905-1124.png
 
If I missed these posted, sorry.... but you can see shift east in gefs. HWRF for fwiw shifted ever so slightly turning almost due north at end of it's run right into the tip of the Fl penn, HMON is turning N at end of it's run towards Naples.
AL11_2017090506_GEFS.png
 
You gotta hope the GFS is on to something it would actually bring an ots solution back into play..... I doubt it but there is still that slightest of chances
 
It appears, once again, the GFS is in a camp by itself. Irma, meet the Gulf.....Gulf, meet Irma! I think today the focus is going to shift to the Big Bend, westward to the AL Gulf coast.
 
DadOfJax said:
It appears, once again, the GFS is in a camp by itself. Irma, meet the Gulf.....Gulf, meet Irma! I think today the focus is going to shift to the Big Bend, westward to the AL Gulf coast.
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Not exactly, although CMC and Euro 0z runs were west of the GFS..... I'll wait to see what all the 12z models show before I'll make that conclusion, just a fluke or an early trend?
11L_tracks_latest.png
 
The Ensemble trends cannot be argued with. Is it right....we shall see, but given the historical tracks of storms in this area, some models bias's on the upper air patterns, etc, I would say the westward shift is not over by any means. JMO though....and it aint worth 2 cents!
 
DadOfJax said:
The Ensemble trends cannot be argued with. Is it right....we shall see, but given the historical tracks of storms in this area, some models bias's on the upper air patterns, etc, I would say the westward shift is not over by any means. JMO though....and it aint worth 2 cents!
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Your opinion is worth far more then 2 cents.... it adds to the already great discussion.
 
metwannabe said:
Your opinion is worth far more then 2 cents.... it adds to the already great discussion.
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Yep. I have a bad fear that come 12Z, something is going to give. The Euro went from ots or land to solidly land. All models hit land at the moment. We need to watch the EPS and GEFS as well as the operational models and their next runs. I would also watch the HMON. I laughed at the intensity, but it got the strong cat 5 intensity.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
FL Keys are probably the best area in the US for a hurricane to make a landfall at Cat 5 intensity.

Wow thats a good bit of weakrning to go from 180 to 150. I guess they are expecting interaction with land to have a big impact.
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The winds are only by model consensus. I have a feeling that unless interaction occurs, it can maintain cat 5 status up to the Keys. If not, it would weaken to a 4 and a 5 around the Keys.
 
Would be unlikely for it to maintain cat 5 for long periods due to the combination of conditions needed.


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Webberweather53 said:
Irma's cloud tops have warmed significantly in the past few hours, likely indicative of another eyewall replacement cycle. This hurricane is about to get even bigger...
avn-animated.gif
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Even though radar doesn't show anything atm it's really peculiar to see the cloud tops warm this much and it's often a precursor to ERCs
 
Storm5 said:
She better start her WNW motion vs the due west heading she is on now or the islands are in trouble

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It's probably just a wobble but northern edge of the eyewall finally brushing 17N..... either way I think the Islands are in trouble.
 
180 mph on best track

Shocking

This thing might be 200 mph at some point at this rate. 190 mph is the atlantic record
 
Anguilla looks like it may take the hit. This was just posted on StormCarib.com from Anguilla. I think it says about as much as you can say if you're there. Can almost here a quivering voice in the last sentence like holding onto one last glimmer of hope before all hell breaks lose! :)

"UPDATE TUESDAY 8:00 AM – Lord help us! Direct hit in the morning, now cat 5, Hurricane Hunter/NOAA report winds near center of 175 mph – WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Fluctuations won’t make much difference - 45 mile wide core. At least cat 4. Here right now – wind N at 0-10 mph, bar. 1009.4 steady – pretty day."
 
Just curious anyone know if one model is verifying better then others with current location strength of the ridge and the trough?
 
This is terrible. Wherever Irma decides to go is going to be a catastrophe. This might be worst than Harvey.
 
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