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Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, that is one of those times you could tell something was going to happen by the way it felt outside.
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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Yeah, that is one of those times you could tell something was going to happen by the way it felt outside.
LickWx
Member
How often is that analog used ? I feel like I’ve seen it at least a few times before .
This setup has the potential to rival that synoptically but mesoscale issues needs to be figured out
Windergawx
Member
It's not having so many in one spot in the case of a direct impact..
One from ENC and others from that axis of cape in the upstate of SC (that same axis goes over us around CLT at 21z but I don’t have access to that time on pivotal to get soundings)
mydoortotheworld
Member
Lots of potential for this system, but do we know of any bust factors? Will crapvection suppress potential?
Lol this time we get it during the mid/late afternoon with peak heating (I’m going with the slower solutions given the GFS is slowing down)
Possibly, with a double barrel jet means lots of forcing for ascent, but one thing I’m seeing that is truly concerning is that models show good surface insolation, with lapse rates up to 7C in some spots, most of these setups lack steep low level lapse rates
SimeonNC
Member
I hope CAD saves NC from the worst of the severe weather, sorry @Myfrotho704_ but I don't want an April 2011 over here lol.
Jessy89
Member
Yeah I agree I’m hoping upstate sc NE Ga and NC dodges the worse of it. I’ll say I am interested in severe weather but interested and liking it is two different things. I dislike it but I’m very much interested.
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Problems 
This looks worrisome.
GFS gonna slow down some more
The more we slow down however higher chance of some CAD
We’re a few steps away from our severe weather event ending in sleet or flurry showers ... wow NC would
Yeah. but CLT is a borderline when it comes to wedges regardless. This is somewhat concerning given our history of wedge tornadoes. Something tells me this will probably end up being our first legit storm threat of spring. I also have this eerie feeling that the wedge won't save us this go around.
Geez. For our area the wedge boundary/tmb is going be problematic especially as we likely attempt to really back sfc winds
gawxnative
Member
I cannot remember which event, but I recall that while SFC Observations showed NE winds with the Wedge, there were observations made at both the Tops Of Stone Mountain (850 ft) and Mount Currahee (Toccoa, 1000 ft) from the SE while upper levels were SW with the jet. Temps and DP were some 10-15 degrees higher also The "ft" I listed is height above surrounding terrain . It shows how shallow wedges are, and the degree of shear. This could very well explain why we sometimes get cells that rapidly turn violent when running into the retreating wedges in NE GA. Also, just got me to thinking... if parcels from just above the surface are heated, while the true "surface" does not, what impact would those rising "near surface" parcels have toward surface based CAPE, etc.
Nws bmx already at enhanced
gawxnative
Member
That closely matches what SPC has at 30% on Day 4.
Here’s a complicated map, I’ll break it down
Yellow = lower risk of severe and/or more uncertainty
Orange = medium risk
Red is a higher risk (not a high risk lmao I’m not the SPC) but the area that has the highest chance of bigger severe
First off one question mark I have is GA/eastern AL, it’s possible a QLCS with a wind/tornado threat could evolve but it’s hard to say given we’re not in reliable meso model range for those areas just yet, I also have a dashed line for NC/upstate because in-situ CAD is possible
Overall I’m just basing this off Synoptics and timing, but this should change as we get more into mesoscale detail
Yellow = lower risk of severe and/or more uncertainty
Orange = medium risk
Red is a higher risk (not a high risk lmao I’m not the SPC) but the area that has the highest chance of bigger severe
First off one question mark I have is GA/eastern AL, it’s possible a QLCS with a wind/tornado threat could evolve but it’s hard to say given we’re not in reliable meso model range for those areas just yet, I also have a dashed line for NC/upstate because in-situ CAD is possible
Overall I’m just basing this off Synoptics and timing, but this should change as we get more into mesoscale detail
Somehow the 18z euro looked even more impressive at H5 and was even more amped
oof this would have been a bad run if it kept going, more favorable tilted jet streak/deeper ULL/precip associated with the warm front further north 
Per EPS the CAD boundary was further north, suggesting that euro run would have probably been nasty
lol nam is very aggressive with wedging, even wedges in NE AL
That was about to get ugly with a north moving warm front, NAM looks like the slower euro 
And now the icon looks just like the euro, it completely aligns forcing/thermodynamics/kinematics and brings storms in peak heating 
Justin Buchinsky
Member
With a cool layer of air on the surface, the result is elevated convection. Inflow from storms won't be from the surface but rather, from elevated air above the cold air. The result? Usually elevated storms pose the threat of hail and perhaps damaging winds if the storm is rigorous enough. Usually no tor threat as the storm is elevated, there isn't gonna be a meso close enough to the ground to produce.
On the topic of its effects on SBCAPE, I would say to disregard SBCAPE entirely in a setup where storms are elevated/ an inversion is in place. If a storm isn't drawing air from the surface, then using a CAPE measure that starts at the surface is not going to provide accurate insight on storm potential. MUCAPE is the way to go for elevated convection.
Shocked... not
All models tonight are trending towards more severe wx for areas East, Including the v16, still looks the same for areas back SW
?
Justin Buchinsky
Member
From the above model run... concerning sounding for sure. Backed winds at the surface with lots of low level instability; 123 3CAPE.
UKMET, some soundings from SC 
At this moment what is the data telling you that we have to look out for? Say for areas like Charlotte Raleigh and west and East. What type of structures are we looking at and main threats? Obviously it’ll change but just curious. Also any chance of any early precip or cloud cover to ruin severe?
Jrips2710
Member
Yeah it was worse for everyone
Probably I-40 south, I’d go with linear right now (as usual) and yeah there could be lots of cloud cover, and it depends on how far south the warm frontal band is, the further south, the more in-situ CAD there is
gawxnative
Member
Yes but my question is with the "wedge layer" so shallow and close to the ground (500- 1000 ft) as it rose with heating would it begin to "mix/pull" the true at the surface parcels with it.