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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This is the same pacific blocking that use to screw us over in past winters 
Hopefully one day it will be able to figure out when it's actually going to snow in the SE.
Edit: I guess, just to be fair, they all missed it with the rug pull of the ages a few weeks ago.
olhausen
Member
Kind of sucks but we are probably due for a big outbreak here. I know we had that massive tornado last season but that was a weird once in a few decades or more event. The conditions early on seemed like we did not have much to worry about and took a lot of people by surprise When it hit. I think we started the day with a slight risk and 2% probability of a tornado hitting the area. The day early on didn’t have the feel in the air of a tornado as big as an EF3 touching down.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well ok then?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro has a mix as well. Sure it's not much but I'll take some flakes.
Yeah models and short range models are picking up on that little burst area of snow in north Georgia ... congrats on yalls KING KONG
LovingGulfLows
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If anything, it sucks because it shows that this set up wasn't that far from something bigger if the SE had better timing on the s/w.
Yeah euro says warm up for a couple days at most
Here comes a trough to ruin a weekend yet again 
cd2play
Member
That would be a repeat of last weekend. No thanks.
This pattern could so easily become one that supports severe wx once that progressive vortex moves NE and the cutoff gets picked up 
Nvm saturday is still safe 
@deltadog03 ftw with his cold not done yet comment? We'll see. Right now it is only in cartoonland and cold bias is s problem.
Lol all I can do is laugh because it’s not happening 
Avalanche
Member
Yeah cold air, Scooby Dooby Doo is looking for you
Yeah hard to imagine Saturday of next week being cold unless things change dramatically. I'm not sure Sunday would be that bad either
Knowing how short cold blasts usually last with a ++AO coming up after the current dip negative, I am not very sold on any long-lasting cold. A few days here and there sure, to skew anomalies cold, but we probably flip to full spring by the end of the month
Avalanche
Member
Lets get this straight, are you trying to tell me March 1993 aint happening this year?
Lol I’ve seen this so many times on models around this range this year, with this split flow gold look only for it to become a disaster 
Yeah, any cold should be shortlived but I'd take whatever breaks from warmth I can get. But cold bias may mean this is a fake cold shot.
Sounds legit. I could see 80 Saturday if the front is late enough
Ah spring. You could get snow/cold rain/severe out of that
Maybe you'll see a couple feet of snow in July
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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More chair pics incoming...
That whole time frame is sort of a mess tbh. Split/splitting flow is going to give the models fits. I'd lean towards the warmer more ridged solution winning right now
This is a look that can cause issues 
Whoops 
Oh and that’s a yikes, gonna be no problem getting severe wx with this sort of look, especially for Dixie alley
Oh and that’s a yikes, gonna be no problem getting severe wx with this sort of look, especially for Dixie alley
LickWx
Member
What even is the euro control? Lmao, such a difference from its ensembles.
Is this real or is it Memorex...I mean cold bias?
"Is It Real, Or Is It Memorex?" - Steve Hoffacker LLC
"Is It Real, Or Is It Memorex?" - Steve Hoffacker LLC
I'm not sure we get the mean pattern here it's likely one or the other with the timing differences smoothing the pattern too much