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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I lowkey want another LP supercell/structure setup along a CAD boundary like last year, those were some sick setups
Makes sense with the look. Not sold on severe for us though bet the best dynamics get pushed NW and we see weakening narrow bands
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Imagine if this ULL was just a bit stronger. March 2009 2.0.
I know there’s bound to be so much mischief going on under those upper lows ... active pattern for the whole US it looks like
Cold rain, rain n severe probably
While true .. I easily see some good hail and even some upper low enhanced snow depending on how strong we get them.. Graupal and all that
Stormsfury
Member
Meanwhile my mud north of Charleston is begging for more mud runoff as to not feel so lonely.
LickWx
Member
Yeah it’s not good for your mud to dry out .
Now that’s pantsbursting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z is probably the best looking synoptic run we've seen in a few days from the ICON model anyways.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Need to see more of this from the models w/ the polar jet tomorrow & Thursday to keep us in the game for this weekend.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Synoptically, this is a real close call by the DWD-ICON at day 4.
lexxnchloe
Member
i AM prepared
it's changed to mostly rain now. that was a exciting 5 minutes lol
Also received some SLEET for about 7 min in southern SC.
V16 Better deliver again lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z GFS looks better than the last few previous runs synoptically thru 48 hr. Can see the northern stream digging more in northern Manitoba
cd2play
Member
Still no sign of any actic air for next 2 wicks.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Watching that vort on the west shore of the Hudson Bay
Keep digging SW! ?
Keep digging SW! ?
Handful of pinger reports in the general vicinity of Huntsville
Also what I would assume is an erroneous ip/rn report in Columbia SC
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z parallel looks mostly unchanged thus far, a smidge better w/ the polar jet if anything.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Frustrating
V16 has a slightly weaker ULL which means less precip then last run for areas further west in NC ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is horse crap.
LickWx
Member
That will skew the deviation from what actually ends up happening . Looking forward to the maxar report in 2 weeks !
Looking forward to those more extended 60s+ after this week.
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Virtually no model, nor ensemble have us "in" anything. Which raises the question, are we "in" any game this weekend?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've already explained this.
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/muddy-march-2021.899/page-34#post-417865
"Anytime you see multiple-several waves interacting between different branches of the jet like this, you should almost always assume forecast confidence is gonna be much lower than usual as their interactions cause larger than usual non-linear growth in forecast errors & thus larger uncertainties that rapidly grow upsacle and propagate forward in time.
Today's NWP models are generally undispersed (i.e. there is usually too little spread between & amongst ensemble members) to handle situations like this and you'll rarely get a full, legitimate suite of forecast outcomes. It's the kind of situation you should immediately recognize as a point of contention whether you're a meteorologist, a student, or interested hobbyist."
Next question.
Time to fire up the grills next week boys, we high fiving 
Getting married in Charleston at the end of March. I swear to god if this month is backloaded with cold.. ?
Jessy89
Member
I guess this is good if I want warmer water in Florida early April
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Is this a good pattern for snow for us?