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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

I don't understand how the HRRR keeps warming when it's obvious we're going to have a couple of hours of RC. Not saying it's wrong, but it doesn't really add up.
 
While I do not see a single cloud, not even in the distance to south or west, I do wonder if any previously unexpected cooling could be offset by the 4-5F higher we went today than previously forecast. Do y'all think there would be enough cooling to make a real difference?
 
Thanks for the replies. I just called Nashville NWS. They said there's a winter storm warning til 6 PM tomorrow and they highly discouraged travel tomorrow, including because of the mountain ridge (Monteagle?) that would have to be crossed.

They told me to monitor roads on tdotsmartway.com to see about Friday.
 
LOL, accu-weather has gone loco. Here is the forecast for Winston tomorrow
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2 - 4 in

Snow



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0.15 - 0.25 in
 
GaWx said:
To mid TN folks like @olhausen :

My niece wants to drive from Atlanta to Nashville tomorrow morning. I told her I thought that could be dangerous due to slippery roads and to instead go Fri, which she can do. But she'd rather not shorten the time there. I told her that I wasn't just worried about roads in Nash,. but maybe moreso the roads between Chat. and Nash. I recall a mountain ridge you have to go across.

Please give me opinions about whether or not I should tell her to wait til Fri. Also, will the drive be much better Fri morning? TIA!
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I have no idea how it looks from Chattanooga to Nashville but once 30 minutes past north of Nashville the backroads are horrible. Everything has been shut down here. No trash no mail no work or dr appointments. With this current storm now I even decided to take the night off and I’m a very good winter weather driver. I’d flat out tell her it’s really dangerous trying to get here especially back roads because it’s been so cold the salt hasn’t worked as good. We are now forecasted for 2-5 inches of snow on top of the 4-5 that has already fallen. If not 4 wheel drive or front wheel definitely don’t try it.
 
Fwiw, the 18z 3km NAM is showing a warm nose of ~12°C at KGSO tomorrow morning (max T is 54°F). If it verifies, that would be a record strong warm nose for all 65 KGSO freezing rain soundings I've looked at since 1976. Normally, the warm nose for ZR at KGSO peaks ~+4-6°C, even anything above +8°C is somewhat unusual in its own right, much less 10C lol.

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Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the 18z 3km NAM is showing a warm nose of ~12°C at KGSO tomorrow morning (max T is 54°F). If it verifies, that would be a record strong warm nose for all 65 KGSO freezing rain soundings I've looked at since 1976. Normally, the warm nose for ZR at KGSO peaks ~+4-6°C, even anything above +8°C is somewhat unusual in its own right, much less 10C lol.

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The strongest warm nose at KGSO during a ZR event (non-freezing drizzle) I found was +11.4°C at 868mb (18z Feb 11 1994) followed closely by +11.2°C at 850mb (12z Feb 11 1994)

Fwiw, GSO ended up getting ~0.33" of ice in that storm, sounds about right here...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the 18z 3km NAM is showing a warm nose of ~12°C at KGSO tomorrow morning (max T is 54°F). If it verifies, that would be a record strong warm nose for all 65 KGSO freezing rain soundings I've looked at since 1976. Normally, the warm nose for ZR at KGSO peaks ~+4-6°C, even anything above +8°C is somewhat unusual in its own right, much less 10C lol.

View attachment 75984
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What do you think is causing this strong of a warm nose... this doesn’t look like that amped up of a system.
 
Chazwin said:
What do you think is causing this strong of a warm nose... this doesn’t look like that amped up of a system.
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There's certainly a sprinkling of the warming background climate + greater moisture fluxes (which translates to greater latent heat release in the mid-levels) that's arguably adding a bit extra to this storm, but it seems synoptically that we just have a very anomalous wave pattern in the CONUS w/ record-cold over the central US and MS valley being followed downstream by a ridge over the SE US. I'd argue that at least 90-95%+ of this is happening due to the weather, the other component probably has some climate influence that may not and probably is not detectable outside the realm of observational and sampling errors, etc
 
Just got an alert from my school we’re closed tomorrow. And looks like some other schools across the northern upstate are starting to close.
 
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