WXinCanton
Member
Damn
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It looks to me like the real problem here is that the low is to strong, so it takes a northern track, instead of the weak wave moving along the Gulf coast and then emerging in the Atlantic around FL/GA. The Canadian had that weak wave with the cold press coming in from the north.
We’re so close to dumping this out west here 
It almost looks like the Euro brings down the TPV and then it just puts on the brakes Lol. I don’t think anything’s stopping that wrecking ball
I think this run will improve, the blocking is starting to retrograde to the NW.
Look at the heights beginning to pump over the SE on the next frames. Congrats Arkansas maybe? Kentucky? Maybe parts of TN? lol.. but seriously.. it still could be worse.
Edit: I would assume they'll collapse further on with the way 500 looks, but who knows.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
That initial northern wave is gumming up the works for the Sunday system. That needs to get out of the way somehow, it seems.
That TPV on AK moving west towards the Aleutians should start to pump heights in the west and move that TPV 
The stronger the low pressure is over the Pacific and Alaska, the better.
I'm not liking the trends today on the models.
As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think the SER is going to be a big problem. Models have repeatedly been trying to flex it in this time range, only for it it weaken the closer we get.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least in the short term I kind of agree, the deeper Alaska low will provide westerly momentum to kick the vortex to the east. The Greenland block is actually holding it back and trying to send it west
Yeah we need this over the GLs, not the northern plains, lol 
This is what we have so far at 12z, lol 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don’t have to go back very far to remember how much NWP waffled on the last big vortex in southern Canada before the storm on the 27-28th. Inside day 5 we went from having it in Nunavut and the Canadian Archipelago to central Ontario. I’m kind of hoping they’re holding it back too long this time too
Lol 1055 
Do things look as good as yesterday? No. But it's not time to hit the panic button quite yet. We still have plenty of more model runs to go before we can all link hands and cliff dive. The pattern is there, we just need everything to line up. (Which is how every single storm in the SE goes).
Jrips2710
Member
There still might be something for the CAD regions of NC on this run 200+ hours