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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Headed to Hendersonville fri and Saturday. I’m big mad I’m not gonna see snow.
 
Really the first time I've focused on this threat. So we basically have the Canadian showing a bad ice storm. The euro has shifted north into VA, and the GFS(s) never really showed much. Looking at the 0Z NAM, it looks like it would at least have initial ice. Andaaab.JPG we also have the 0z CFS (it is, what it is):
 
DP right before this are very very low in the teens and right around 20 degrees. Call me crazy but I would think that would be a very good start to look at. That makes me nervous that as we get closer and with snow cover to our north and a meso high continually showing up in the NE and MA that this one will trend colder as we get closer.
 
So far through 51 on the NAM the CAD is building in more and the High is further south. The vort looks healthier and a bit slower but not by much.
 
iGRXY said:
DP right before this are very very low in the teens and right around 20 degrees. Call me crazy but I would think that would be a very good start to look at. That makes me nervous that as we get closer and with snow cover to our north and a meso high continually showing up in the NE and MA that this one will trend colder as we get closer.
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Yeah, I think the very low dew points are the wildcard. Definitely out of my league in figuring out if an in-situ or hybrid CAD can win out. Here's Saturday's mid-day dewpoints (12z NAM):
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NAM put ice down much further south. Went from the VA/NC border down to the I40 corridor at 1pm
 
Gonna take some big changes to get anything appreciable out of this for us here......been a very long time since we have seen a significant ice storm IMBY, that said the air mass in place is going to be pretty damn good, but need a lot of help to get more than a bit of snow and sleet going to rain this far east.
 
Downeastnc said:
Gonna take some big changes to get anything appreciable out of this for us here......been a very long time since we have seen a significant ice storm IMBY, that said the air mass in place is going to be pretty damn good, but need a lot of help to get more than a bit of snow and sleet going to rain this far east.
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Agreed. Right now I say if you’re west of 77 and along/north of 85 this is one you’re going to want to watch closely. Don’t know if it’s a trend yet but the NAM came in with a much better push of dryer DPs and had ice holding on longer and much further south. Still 3 1/2 days left so plenty of changes left to go.
 
Downeastnc said:
Gonna take some big changes to get anything appreciable out of this for us here......been a very long time since we have seen a significant ice storm IMBY, that said the air mass in place is going to be pretty damn good, but need a lot of help to get more than a bit of snow and sleet going to rain this far east.
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Yeah, usually we need the Classic (and strong) CAD setup for eastern folks. In-situ almost always only works for far western areas. Now if this is some kind of hybrid, maybe a few more can join the party.
 
NAM has sfc winds turning around to the S then E late Saturday across most of NC and dews start slowly creeping up. We would have to get precip going with the initial shot of lift overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning to attempt to lock the CAD in or it will be a morning of slowly watching dews inch up and temps hold steady as the cold rain approaches
 
Clem282340 said:
Do you think if this keeps on trending south do you think the whole upstate and ne ga could be involved as well
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hard to tell at this point. I do like how the NAM trended and the airmass in place on saturday and right as the event is unfolding is very dry. If you get temps around the 33-35 range and DPs in the upper teens and low 20s, then I would say you will have a big problem on your hands.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yeah and the Hendersonville area especially the eastern side from East Flat Rock down to the Saluda Grade always does well in ice storms.
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Places like Landrum/Inman/ Boiling Springs/ Greer/Lyman and Wellford had some onset lite ice during December and not 15 minutes up the road into polk and henderson counties they had a full on ice storm.
 
iGRXY said:
Places like Landrum/Inman/ Boiling Springs/ Greer/Lyman and Wellford had some onset lite ice during December and not 15 minutes up the road into polk and henderson counties they had a full on ice storm.
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You gain a lot of elevation quickly coming up to Polk and hendo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Lickwx said:
Cold rain , a really cold rain . Maybe some sleet and a bit of ice . Don’t think this one is ours .
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Nope, it’s all mine!⛄️
 
Ugh!
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This LP Miller B''ing from Indiana to Tidewater stinks. If it where SE KY to Hatteras, like classical. We;d get at a shot sleet storm. I'm like SD that was what I was rooting for. Pick poision, cause snow start to finish is tough to get in miller B's. Never seen it happen, always get mixing issues
 
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