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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Pretty much getting consensus with all the models excpet the NAM. And it's really just a matter of less precip than the others.
 
These 10:1 maps... hell, even Kuchera maps, probably aren't realistic and not factoring in the wetness of snow that'll melt initially or during the event. This is probably more realistic with positive snow depth change... and even this map is looking decent. We'll have to see how other models handle this in the morning.

1611721613524.png
 
Honestly wondering if the V16 isn't running for itself and the old GFS at this point. 4-5 inches here on them, around an inch for the other models. Either an epic all time miss, epic all time hit or epic all time fold coming very soon.
 
tramadoc said:
The NAM is better short term than the GFS. GFS is a medium to long range model. We are in the NAM’s wheelhouse. You’re gonna be bigly disappointed Thursday morning, son.
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The NAM is on an island though. You have the RGEM, RAP, HRRR and other high res models are much snowier than the NAM. It is odd to see it so dry vs all other guidance at this stage. I can’t recall ever seeing that happen.
 
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Looks like the 00z Euro held steady for a mid- to high-end WWA type event for much of the northern half of NC.
 
.. uhhh cave to gfs much? If this thing verifies ... this is genuinely a big coup for the Gfs and major coup from gfsV16 and shows us it’s quite the performer to look for in the future ... except of course when it involves this sundays system ?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
.. uhhh cave to gfs much? If this thing verifies ... this is genuinely a big coup for the Gfs and major coup from gfsV16 and shows us it’s quite the performer to look for in the future ... except of course when it involves this sundays system ?
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Weenie ??
But no joke the v16 might not be all bad
 
NWS issuing a WWA for RDU and pts north tomorrow night for up to 1" of snow w/ isolated 2" amounts. I definitely think we're going to see significantly more than that near the VA border. Winter storm warning criteria snow in places like Oxford, Henderson, Roxboro, etc. (3"/12 hr) is probably a safe bet at this point

Screen Shot 2021-01-27 at 3.50.11 AM.png
 
FallsLake said:
Here's the 6z HRRR kuchera map. Again it looks like a Triad to Triangle special:
View attachment 68386
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Yeah I think given the better SLRs, sfc temps, and potential for a weak warm nose in the early portions of the changeover probably support the heaviest axis of snow sitting near the VA border w/ the Triad & Triangle on the southern fringe of the heaviest accumulations.
 
So the NAM (12k & 3K) is still on an island in terms of QPF. It has increased (as shown above) but still show a lot of trace to 1" amounts across central and eastern NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I think given the better SLRs, sfc temps, and potential for a weak warm nose in the early portions of the changeover probably support the heaviest axis of snow sitting near the VA border w/ the Triad & Triangle on the southern fringe of the heaviest accumulations.
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So what do you think of the NAM?
 
FallsLake said:
So what do you think of the NAM?
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I've been completely ignoring it, the last run or two has progressively ticked towards the GEFS/GFS, which most were crapping on yesterday. The more amped/slow wave the models are seeing and what the GEFS/GFS forecast yesterday in the short-range usually ends up verifying.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've been completely ignoring it, the last run or two has progressively ticked towards the GEFS/GFS, which most were crapping on yesterday. The more amped/slow wave the models are seeing and what the GEFS/GFS forecast yesterday in the short-range usually ends up verifying.
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Cool. So are you thinking we stay within Advisory levels or could we get to Warnings?
 
Here's the 8z RAP. We're now just within the shorter one hour runs. Hour 21 (don't have a closer look):
aaadd.JPG
 
FallsLake said:
Cool. So are you thinking we stay within Advisory levels or could we get to Warnings?
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I think warning criteria snow will probably fall north of RDU in places like Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson. Wake county is gonna be close, especially in northern sections where I think 1"-3" is not a bad call atm
 
My updated call map for this storm. Significantly increased totals vs yesterday, but the overall distribution of amounts hasn't changed much. I'm expecting warning criteria snow to fall near the VA border in places like Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson, where I'm forecasting a few-several inches of snow.

January 27-28 2021 NC Forecast Snowmap3.jpg
 
These clown maps are crazier than usual. We're talking at most a five hour window of snow (probably more like 3-4 for most places). Only so much can fall from the sky in that period and even less than whatever amount that is will accumulate. With that said, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping for at least 1-2" here.
 
Poimen said:
These clown maps are crazier than usual. We're talking at most a five hour window of snow (probably more like 3-4 for most places). Only so much can fall from the sky in that period and even less than whatever amount that is will accumulate. With that said, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping for at least 1-2" here.
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Yeah, I'm trying to stay realistic (..we've seen this before); I'm thinking 2" would be a big win.
 
I remember a certain someone on this forum several days ago claimed that this TPV lobe in southern Canada moving south wouldn't matter for this setup.

You can clearly see even looking at this map that's simply not true. Notice the sfc high over the upper midwest & SW Ontario is phased locked to the back side of the TPV lobe where negative vorticity advection, synoptic-scale descent, & hydrostatically forced sfc pressure rises are creating the high there & also note the deep-layer cold advection that's originating from this feature and feeding right into the cold sector of our coastal low. Without the TPV lobe, that sfc high probably isn't there to begin with or anywhere near as strong & the amping trends we've been seeing w/ our shortwave in the last day or so probably pull would end up forcing this storm back to the mid-Atlantic because there wouldn't be enough confluence over the Great Lakes to shear/suppress the wave. Not to mention, this TPV interacting w/ our storm in a few days will help trigger a giant 50-50 low that could setup a nice CAD event this weekend.

1611743417769.png
 
Poimen said:
These clown maps are crazier than usual. We're talking at most a five hour window of snow (probably more like 3-4 for most places). Only so much can fall from the sky in that period and even less than whatever amount that is will accumulate. With that said, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping for at least 1-2" here.
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If it looks remotely like the HRRR above, 3-4 hours will be plenty of time to put down a good bit of snow!
 
Will be interesting to see how much, if any, of this snow cover from tonight's storm will still be around prior to the next system this coming weekend. The GFS ensemble suggests at least a little will be left in parts of northern NC and south-central VA. Certainly would help to cool/dry the low-level air mass we'd see w/ cold air damming.

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