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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

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Webberweather53 said:
We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

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Glad that we went away from the ice/pure miller B look, I was getting convinced that we were headed to that yesterday
 
ajr said:


The top-right is a composite of the east-based NAO... not ideal.

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Ollie Williams said:
MSLP wise, the ICON had a big old low-pressure system in the Ohio Valley. The GFS looks good.
Edit: Certainly much less of a high press on the GFS, however, much better than
the ICON.
Click to expand...
Have we gotten the first cross polar flow that was showing up 2 weeks ago after the last PV split?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

View attachment 66811
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Here’s another map for Vorticity, and Geopotential:

MSLP
 
Ollie Williams said:
Here’s another map for Vorticity, and Geopotential:

MSLP
Click to expand...


Oh wow I forgot about these, they look amazing btw! I honestly wasn't kidding when I said this setup was actually pretty close overall haha, we just need a few bounces to go our way the next couple days.

For us NC folks to cash in on the big fish here, we need to root for our main s/w to track thru the I-20 corridor instead of over KS-MO-TN/KY and sooner northern stream involvement so that more cold air gets injected into our storm and it amplifies/slows the system as result of the interaction, increasing the QPF and prolonging the potential for heavy wintry precipitation.
 
ajr said:
This is neat... big picture, though, it looks like in 1927 we were getting the 510mb line (!) into NC... our setup looks nowhere near close to getting that kind of cold:

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That doesn't occur until after the storm has already left NC, and we don't need that kind of cold to get injected into this storm in late January to make it happen. Our climo in late January is ~7-8F colder now than in early March
 
It’s been unbelievably snowy since November one county north or west of me. Massive crowds and buying out all the ski resorts. Martin Luther King Holiday Weekend sold out everything. Fairly close to an A+ winter up there if they keep the snowpack from thanksgiving to Easter not to mention their white Christmas too. It snows every week. Sometimes every two days. Even this morning when it’s not suppose to.
 
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