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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
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- whamby
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Well that just sucks donkey...
Why can’t we get this in late spring/early summer (higher heights ofc), NW flow MCS season sucked balls last year 
GEFS/GFS sucks, it’s over
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looking at the pattern is worthless. It doesn't matter. Even if we get one that is supposed to be great for snow here it most likely still won't produce. At the same time, we could end up getting lucky and getting a big storm in a pattern that really isn't supposed to be good for snow here. It's just a crapshoot. Just look at the models and see if they show a storm inside 5 days and then MAYBE we'll have a storm that will work out. But worrying so much about the specific pattern is just a waste of time. Maybe we could have a thread specifically for pattern discussions for those that want to torture themselves, and a thread just for model runs.
Dude what ?? looking at a pattern is not torturing yourself, theres more to a pattern then snow, everything is not about snow, it’s a learning experience for different things, everything is not about snow brick, relax, there’s many other aspects of a pattern that’s truly fascinating and can give you a base, it’s not gonna produce everytime
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
And hate kids on your lawn
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
So did Derecho season!
See this is a chase I could afford
I thought winter was dead?
I am more excited than ever for Severe weather season in the Spring. Over the last several years, probably because I have got used to never seeing Winter weather down here in the Midlands of SC, I have learned to enjoy Spring. I used to hate it, cause it was the end of my favorite season (Winter). Looking forward to chasing some supercells this year.
Soundings were beautiful
Let's bring this to the wamby thread. Where is my analysis incorrect? The 15th thru the 25th look like more of the exact same thing to me. Average temps and needing a lot of luck to get a storm. I'm just not seeing any real cold for this region. So instead of hitting me with a huh emoji or a one liner how about show me some data to back up your claim that the 15th thru the 25th looks so great. Its the 13th, we should be seeing this show in modeling now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You always need a lot of luck to get a storm, an amazeballs pattern loaded w/ cold air really doesn't change that.
I'll hit you w/ one liners as much as I want. I really don't feel like putting in the time & effort to respond to crap like this because the same people always have something negative to say regardless of how good or bad things are going.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It is all about the snow. That's the only good thing that can happen in winter. I don't care about how great a pattern supposedly is for snow around here if it doesn't produce snow. That's the only thing that matters. There just seems to be a lot of talk about how great the pattern is supposed to be but nothing to show for it, and it happens more and more every winter.
NoSnowATL
Member
Honest post and I can’t disagree. It’s all about snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You'd be surprised how much we've completely screwed up even better patterns like this in the past & came away w/ next-to-nothing. Save a couple rare cases, people are only going to remember the successes of the past and failures of the present.
whatalife
Moderator
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This will be my last post to you since we can't agree to disagree. You act like you are above everyone on here and their opinion doesn't matter. And I'll say what I'm sure some on here think. You don't exactly have the best track record yourself. I've seen people with far less knowledge do just as good. Good day sir. And for the record I hope your right and I'm wrong. Time will tell. Good day sir.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
If it doesn't produce then it's really not a great pattern. And these days it's harder to get snow from a supposedly great pattern than it used to be. That's my whole point. Either the pattern isn't really that great for snow, or what used to produce more often than not just doesn't anymore. It becomes a crapshoot more than anything, so it just seems pointless to me now to talk about the pattern and just hope the models show potential inside 5 days.
Statistically speaking us RDU folks basically are looking at less than 3 or more than 11.1 each year
SnowNiner
Member
Ah, it's all just semantics. Everybody just simma dow now. 
We all want snow. Some think the upcoming is a "great pattern". Some think a great pattern is where we get well below average surface temps first (not created by the storm). Based on individual experience and data you can argue both can produce snow, which is true. It's all just preferences of what you'd like to see, so I think it's all subjective. Nobody's right and nobody's wrong I don't think.
We all want snow. Some think the upcoming is a "great pattern". Some think a great pattern is where we get well below average surface temps first (not created by the storm). Based on individual experience and data you can argue both can produce snow, which is true. It's all just preferences of what you'd like to see, so I think it's all subjective. Nobody's right and nobody's wrong I don't think.
LickWx
Member
LickWx
Member
It’s been great watching y’all from being off the wall ecstatic 2 days ago to ready to slit some throats yesterday. Meanwhile I’m just cooling man ! Snow no snow snow whatever ! It’s sunny today that’s all that matters rn !
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Couldn't have said it better myself. I haven't seen anyone cancel winter or say it absolutely wasn't going to snow. At least I haven't. I've simply stated it doesn't look cold for the next 10 days and apparently I'm not qualified to say that.Ah, it's all just semantics. Everybody just simma dow now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good or bad patterns are at best moderately correlated with snowfall on a case by case basis. it’s understanding that after a large number of repetitions of a same or similar pattern that produce some underlying expected result “x” that are more important for mets like myself.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You’re always one the first to be cancelling winter on here. Even your profile name speaks volumes to your average demeanor.
LickWx
Member
Speaking for RDU folks the odds are in our favor we see at least 2-4 inches of snow given the median is 3.5 last 30 years. Not the blockbuster 6+ inch storm everyone wants ( not that it couldn’t happen it sure could ) but the very climatologically favored outcome , more favored than being entirely shutout. I’d be hopeful in GSO, GSP, and CLT as well aside from our Tennessee and mountain friends.
As for my friends in Atlanta , Columbia I will admit a miracle is what it will take . Well for Columbia , I think even Atlanta is climo favored for at least an inch or 2.
As for my friends in Atlanta , Columbia I will admit a miracle is what it will take . Well for Columbia , I think even Atlanta is climo favored for at least an inch or 2.
RDUs 10+ per decade has declined but the 2010's 0 wasn't really a crazy statistic improbability. It will be interesting to see if we get a positive regression in the 2020s back toward the mean
Note if years crossed decades included them in the decade they ended not started (just throwing some stuff together this morning not trying to get too deep)
Note if years crossed decades included them in the decade they ended not started (just throwing some stuff together this morning not trying to get too deep)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Indeed positive regression FTW
You will not find a single post in this thread where I canceled winter or said it wouldn't snow. My argument has been no real cold for the next 10 days. If you're referring to my comment about the NAO and Feb I clearly said IF, we lose the NAO. I did not say we WILL lose it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You were consistently cancelling winter before it even started, like you do basically every single year & again as your profile name insinuates.
Next question.
https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
[/QUOTE]
https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
GSP similar to RDU far more likely to have a low end season or a blockbuster
GSP 61% chance of seeing 4 inches or less yearly
https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
[/QUOTE]
Oh thanks for digging that up. I'm glad you found time to do that. I guess you see no sarcasm in that huh? I mean like you said I have an image on here of being negative that I've intentionally created with my username and pic from the start to be funny. And if someone is the type that doesn't like reading that stuff there is an ignore button. But does that mean I can't have a legit opinion when the time comes? I mean I've seen you post images of bad patterns saying "we suck" and winter cancel posts from you too. Did I take it seriously? No
Sorry BHAM
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh thanks for digging that up. I'm glad you found time to do that. I guess you see no sarcasm in that huh? I mean like you said I have an image on here of being negative that I've intentionally created with my username and pic from the start to be funny. And if someone is the type that doesn't like reading that stuff there is an ignore button. But does that mean I can't have a legit opinion when the time comes? I mean I've seen you post images of bad patterns saying "we suck" and winter cancel posts from you too. Did I take it seriously? No
[/QUOTE]
No doubt theres a level of sarcasm but oth it does seem like you must certainly believe what you’re saying if you’ve been posting that over, over, and over again ad nauseam before and during every winter. Eventually your true colors and intentions emerge. It’s analogous to when someone tells a lie repeatedly, eventually you and others will start to actually believe it to be true.
Nope, never said or implied your opinion wasn’t legit, there’s just a time and place for incessant banter, whining, & complaining and we made this thread for that very purpose.
Context is important. The only thing you post here for the most part is incessant negativity and you conveniently decide to show up and post usually when things are going south. I provide my opinion both positive, negative, and objective with data and expert meteorological intuition to back it up. You see the glaring difference?
Also, I thought you weren’t gonna keep responding to me anymore? What happened to that?
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