I would say this look would produce in January-February, let’s just be patient. But it would probably be rain then, too. I don’t imagine that powerful clipper over N MN is doing us any good, either.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
AJ1013
Member
Here's the latest forecast for Miami. The supposed christmas cold snap is far enough out that for now I guess I'll stay optimistic. Until then it looks alright, a bit below average.
Are you suggesting we are going to 28-3 this pattern? ?
That big red blob out in the western Atlantic is a problem. It keeps reforming over the same area. And that's not a good spot. I'm hopeful that the Pacific will make progress into January. But that blog gotta go.
You can’t look at every model run as exactly what’s going to happen at that point in time... you have to understand the pieces involved and how those pieces can change (and usually will change) from now until that time frame.. the big thing we want to see right now is cold air available .. that’s obvious that we will see a large chunk of it sometime around Christmas .. now we watch pieces of energy and see how they track and turned over the next 5 days ... long time to go with this oneA complete whiff here. Winds out of the NNE right after the front passes is a recipe for windy mild overcast
AJ1013
Member
I know I know lol. Not encouraging to see it trend this way though. I've been burned way too many times by the dreaded NE winds.
ATLwxfan
Member
One run does not a trend make. This is the cha cha cha of the models as Henry Margusity likes to say.
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AJ1013
Member
GEFS and EPS have gone the wrong direction the past two days. We will see. I'm hoping for the best.
Wrt what I said ^ soundings do support snow making it to the ground due to the small melting layer, but those snow growth regions are extremely poor, I’m almost pretty sure your more likely to get graupel, or small snowflakes just because the shallow moist layer is largely below freezing
Freezing fog tomorrow morning ? Might get more accretion of ice from fog than I did this entire storm, lol 
Mega frost alert ?
olhausen
Member
But it sure feels cold due to the stretch of recently above normal Decembers.
OMG at that one member from the 12z eps ?
I wouldn’t sleep on that first little piece of energy that gets sheared on the Euro/the control,
If we can get favorable trends with it, it’s game on, the cold is there, we just need to find a way to amp it up or get the northern stream trough to relax a bit
If we can get favorable trends with it, it’s game on, the cold is there, we just need to find a way to amp it up or get the northern stream trough to relax a bit
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
A suppressed look over 200 out isn't bad. Workable
olhausen
Member
Yeah and there’s actually legit cold to work with it with this look, for now, but I’d rather see a flat, suppressed look at this range
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Right now it's good just to see the cold showing on the models consistently. At least we're not seeing a torch. The storms are going to be going back and forth, appearing and disappearing in the long range on the models because that's just what they do. Then it gets legit when it shows up 72 hours out.
BufordWX
Member
Ugly looking storm west of Tampa right now. 
The 3km NAM has a few isolated flurries breaking out from RDU northward early on Friday morning, it has been showing this for a few runs now 
BufordWX
Member
Well then...
StormStalker
Member
The Weather Channel is covering that Tampa tornado warning live.
iGRXY
Member
Well with Atlanta Falcons players on the field, we should be up big in the 4th only to lose in the last minute. Damn shame :/
Big modeled snow 2 days before the storm, only for there to be a surprise NW trend to sleet the day before
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like a global snow storm to appear for days only to have the Nam find that warm nose. A 10 inch snow storm goes to an inch of snow and 3" of sleet in less than 24 hours ?
That right there is how we score. I’d be thrilled if that was four days out.
Storm from earlier is now well east of Tampa and still tor warned
BufordWX
Member
That is a lot of debris being detected by radar. Looks like quite a tornado happened and now the debris field is spreading out from the aftermath.
Nada.
BufordWX
Member
Banana high trying to drop out of Canada. 1045 mb lol.
Regardless if this produces, this is an awesome look!
This trend towards a AK ridge tho 
RVD
Meteorology Student
Nice to see that WAR get beaten down and the TPV to keep digging over the past few runs. But that's in part because the southern stream wave we had has sped up/interacted considerably more, and translated to that 999 mb low near Montreal on the latest run. Will need to find a different southern stream cutoff/shortwave if that's what's going to happen.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Yeah here comes something- the TPV looks to be sticking around (if not digging even more) long enough for this to be at least a close call...
RVD
Meteorology Student
Lol I'm in the bullseye of the blue there. I guess this December's the month of the flizzard.
Another day with highs in the 40s, officially 49 for the high at BTR, which happened before dawn. Thanks to another cold front, with lots of CAA and clouds, the temperature basically was around 45 all day. And NWS forecast for MBY was high again - 53! Not a bad stretch of Deep South winter weather IMO. Bring on some snow already!