• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s literally so close, don’t know what else to say, except that’s a lot of energy View attachment 54699
Click to expand...

Sorry if this is a dumb question but what exactly are we looking for here? Do we want that circulation in the midwest to phase with the vortex off the coast? For cool weather here I need that circulation of the coast to position itself a little further west.
 
AJ1013 said:
Sorry if this is a dumb question but what exactly are we looking for here? Do we want that circulation in the midwest to phase with the vortex off the coast? For cool weather here I need that circulation of the coast to position itself a little further west.
Click to expand...
We're looking to find some cold air somewhere, IMO. Unless you're 1000 feet tall, it doesn't look like it will be easy to see a lot of snow.
 
AJ1013 said:
Sorry if this is a dumb question but what exactly are we looking for here? Do we want that circulation in the midwest to phase with the vortex off the coast? For cool weather here I need that circulation of the coast to position itself a little further west.
Click to expand...
Yeah first off we want this UL trough around the GL to be further west so maybe it can drag some Energy from the SW ULL with it, and it could have a favorable tilt for areas around NC/SC (want it do dig towards OK/KS), and for that other piece of energy it would be hard given that UL trough off the coast would likely suppress it EA370E25-793B-440F-908E-0B4B373DA4C4.png8EBAD101-35AB-4BC6-B924-E231D83F7EA7.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nice Miller B look here synoptically. If this model run continued beyond 240 hr, we'd likely see a legit -NAO develop due to the negatively tilted trough over New England.

View attachment 54706
Click to expand...
So basically this euro run was extremely close through the entire run synoptically, lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wonder if we’re in the range of models being so bad to where a winter storm could pop up under D2 for some part of the country like the old days, lol
Click to expand...

It actually legitimately could here believe it or not, which is why I'm mildly intrigued even aside from a meteorological standpoint.

This is probably the biggest synoptic-scale discrepancy I've ever seen between the Euro & GFS ensembles 4 days out.

On a scale of 1-10, I'd rate this setup's uncertainty at a 12+.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lmfao no joke a scenario like that is possible with how bad these models are right now
Click to expand...
Growing up in the 80s and 90s, I can remember that the best storms usually happened when there was no mention of it by the weatherman until inside about 3 days out. Heck there were even a couple that there was literally no mention until the night before.
 
Chazwin said:
Growing up in the 80s and 90s, I can remember that the best storms usually happened when there was no mention of it by the weatherman until inside about 3 days out. Heck there were even a couple that there was literally no mention until the night before.
Click to expand...
February 8th of this year sort of felt that way
 
A big beautiful ULL here and no cold air or moisture. Pain.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_21.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top