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Naughty November

Chazwin said:
I’m beginning to get a bit of Nov.-Dec. 1989 feel with the way this pattern is modeled to unfold right now. That was a LaNina winter that saw November start out very mild like this one has and saw things turn much colder for Thanksgiving... there was even an ice storm for the NC Mountains and northern foothills the day before Thanksgiving from a storm that dumped snow on the Macy’s parade in NYC. Then of course December was very cold that year with several winter events for NC/SC which of of course culminated with the coastal blizzard on the day before Christmas Eve. The rest of that winter sucked, but December was definitely exciting
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IF we also got a repeat of the storm right before Christmas 1989, most folks from I-95 and east would be happy.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I love this time of year because people are so full of hope and are excited about all of the possibilities. Unfortunately in most years reality doesn't match what people hope for.
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Believe it or not I used the be one of those optimists about 10 years ago. Letdown after letdown has made me the the pessimist I am now! And its gonna take a couple big winters to change that! My backyard has a better chance at hitting 115 degrees in my lifetime than getting another 26 inch snowstorm like 1886.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Believe it or not I used the be one of those optimists about 10 years ago. Letdown after letdown has made me the the pessimist I am now! And its gonna take a couple big winters to change that! My backyard has a better chance at hitting 115 degrees in my lifetime than getting another 26 inch snowstorm like 1886.
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Only reason I’m a optimist is that nice near 8 inches of snow I got in December 2018
 
Sleet City USA said:
Screwjob here. Did y’all not get a trace in any of this flizzards this past winter?
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Maybe a trace and that's about it. I wasn't home for 2 of the 3 flizzards but by the time I got home that evening there was nothing. The last one in Feb had a light dusting on the car tops that melted right when it stopped. ?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Maybe a trace and that's about it. I wasn't home for 2 of the 3 flizzards but by the time I got home that evening there was nothing. The last one in Feb had a light dusting on the car tops that melted right when it stopped. ?
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Damn, I’m sad you missed the one on 1/31. Snowed bout the hardest I’d seen in a while
 
JHS said:
IF we also got a repeat of the storm right before Christmas 1989, most folks from I-95 and east would be happy.
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There was a good event early in the month too for the western and central Carolinas also going into the 2nd weekend of the month... I remember it coming in on a Friday because it was actually a bust on the good side for Charlotte metro. We were supposed to see all rain, but the rain changed to heavy sleet and snow late in the morning and quickly accumulated. Schools dismissed early but roads in Concord/Kannapolis were already snow covered by the time buses were running. The precip went back and forth between snow, sleet, and freezing rain through Saturday evening. There were a couple smaller events that happened over the next couple weeks before the coastal storm happened, but this was the one that I remember most.
 
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Watching this time frame as Webb been mentioning
 
accu35 said:
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Watching this time frame as Webb been mentioning
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The 6z was not far off from providing a big winter storm outside the mountains. It shows a miller B setup with the low traversing just a little too far to the NW before the transfer, and the NE high moving out too fast. It was a great improvement form the run before; especially with the CAD setup. **But way too far out for the details. We just need to keep monitoring.

Edit: doesn't show a actual transfer. Just a quick move right over us then up the coast. If we could get a stronger high in a better position that would do it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah probably gonna be a Wilkes onset ice run, hey at least there’s a solid pattern showing up around this time
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I think that's a bit too optimistic, would be a storm for maybe Mack. However, I do think there is an obvious trend in the high pressure/cold air source. Now we need to work on timing and making the west coast look better.
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Long, longgg ways to go but we definitely have the right longwave pattern to crank out a Miller B/CAD event around or just before Thanksgiving and that's all you can really ask for 10 days out.


Deepen the trough over Atlantic Canada and the surface high over New England will trend stronger & "lock in". More Atlantic Canada troughing implies more cold advection in New England (therefore a stronger surface high) & deeper troughs move more slowly as they experience more planetary vorticity advection (thus, the surface high doesn't leave as quickly). These setups can easily change pretty dramatically even inside day 3-5 so plenty of time to watch it. Also will need a properly timed wave to emerge out of the southern Rockies before this Atlantic Canada trough leaves stage right

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