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Naughty November

Really surprised no lake effect yet. Usually by now we've seen cold air crossing the lakes and creating it.
 
6.9” highest total in Wilkes I see with neighboring Alexander over 9” fell. In between those counties are the brushy mtns...where rain is squeezed out...but little to no observation sites.
 
Well I just got home and my rain gauge is at 7.25 inches. That is at total since overnight on Monday. It was 1.9 when I left for work this morning before the fire hose got here, so I had 5.35 inches in just over 3 hours. Definitely the heaviest rainfall I’ve seen since Florence.
 
Chazwin said:
Well I just got home and my rain gauge is at 7.25 inches. That is at total since overnight on Monday. It was 1.9 when I left for work this morning before the fire hose got here, so I had 5.35 inches in just over 3 hours. Definitely the heaviest rainfall I’ve seen since Florence.
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Just for the record because I like to keep track of things like this, how much of this incredible flooding event can be attributed to TS Eta? Another way to ask: if Eta had not been there and we just had the cold front coming into the same warm and high dewpoint airmass, would it have been nearly as wet?
 
GaWx said:
Just for the record because I like to keep track of things like this, how much of this incredible flooding event can be attributed to TS Eta? Another way to ask: if Eta had not been there and we just had the cold front coming into the same warm and high dewpoint airmass, would it have been nearly as wet?
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I can’t imagine the rain totals would have been anywhere close if Eta hadn’t been there. While none of the rainfall was directly from Eta’s circulation, it obviously helped push a very tropical airmass in place with PWAT’s at absolutely unheard levels for November.
 
WeatherNC said:
Going to end up with just under 7” event total, really over a 24hr period. 6.86” and about finished. Pretty wet out there.
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I came up the road from the speedway and by your neck of the woods. Couple places still had water on the roads especially near the curve by the overpass.
 
That 6-7 inches of rain today could have been 60-70 inches of white powder using 10-1 ratios. All we needed was about 30-40 degrees shaved off the mercury.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is teetering on the edge between a pure dumpster fire and a blockbuster. The west-based -NAO and Alaska/NW territory ridges are bridging over the top, but the trough off the west coast is trying to pump the heights over the east-central US. Warmth is more likely going to win out but we could hit it big pattern-wise if a couple dominoes magically fall in our corner.

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I’ll take the under on dumpster fire
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS and Euro both came back a little colder for next week.
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OP Euro has back to back 40s here Wednesday and Thursday but the EPS mean is warmer. Pretty decent rollercoaster on temps for the next 2 weeks on the EPS, 56 on Thanksgiving and 58 on black Friday would be acceptable
 
GFS is cloudier in the western Carolinas on Sunday, keeps highs lower than previously modeled. Generally has trended that way for Charlotte and points west. Front now comes through between 18-0z
 
Member 9 says chase in Gatlinburg
GEFSMA_prec_snens_258.png
 
I also find that ural blocking interesting, and whether it can turn into a -NAO in the future (GEFS more excited about it while EPS not so much) ?
that pattern here to isn’t bad either for some wintry precip close by especially if you get a nice SE Canada vortex and trailing wave, but it’s a long shot B032CC73-C802-4644-977F-4FED41DBF8CC.png716A53DE-1C33-4DD6-9C7D-E4A325F57C32.png
 
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