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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

lol 06z Gfs ensembles
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00z euro ensembles
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Gonna be bust city for one


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Lol yea as storm5 said, one of these models is gonna suffer a yuuugge bust. I would certainly lean a little more to the euro here just for the fact that the differential in friction between the Yucatan and adjacent southern Gulf of Mexico and curvature vorticity induced by the shape of the Bay of Campeche tends to be more conducive to TCG wrt localizing lower level relative vorticity and convergence, (& this has historically been the case) but we shall see...
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12z Gfs and Gfs para are hell bent with their northern gulf idea. Who folds first??? GFS or Euro


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Storm5 said:
12z Gfs and Gfs para are hell bent with their northern gulf idea. Who folds first??? GFS or Euro


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Who usually folds first? Seen this before....

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12z Gfs takes it to the northern gulf stalls it and then slowly drifts it inland
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Lol the 12z Cmc
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metwannabe said:
Who usually folds first? Seen this before....

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Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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Storm5 said:
Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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Until something develops it's pure, fun, speculation; if/once something develops and there is a COC and some real data to work with, then let the real model comparisons begin ... :cool:
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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Amen

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I know it exists but dadgum if I can find it - somewhere the NHC or NOAA or Unisys or someone has a TS track map by month for all years (showing all June storms in this case) ... anyone got the link?

This is the best I can do but is not very readable
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_21_30.png

Trying to figure out how many TS's actually went SW (as some models are suggesting this one might)
 
ForsythSnow said:
GFS has another storm way out on today's 12z, and it showed up on a model run or two already, but it was yesterday that it did. May not happen, or may be sniffing another one out.
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Remember Cindy was track from the 300 hundred hr, so anything is possible
 
It's amazing we even have a chance for TCG in the far eastern Atlantic (again) given there's a suppressed CCKW passing through (although the MJO is conducive). Shows you how favorable the background state is, and keep in mind we've never had a year produce 2 TCs east of the Antilles before July...
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's amazing we even have a chance for TCG in the far eastern Atlantic (again) given there's a suppressed CCKW passing through (although the MJO is conducive). Shows you how favorable the background state is, and keep in mind we've never had a year produce 2 TCs east of the Antilles before July...
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Maybe this is the year we have that. Not really too much global model support on it, but the Euro yesterday had hinted at it.
 
Per what I am seeing, this system is already off of Africa, and was the one Webber saw was being briefly watched by the NHC. The 18Z brings it now into the Bahamas, with the low being moderately organized by Tuesday.
 
pcbjr said:
Did that with Hermine and Matthew both last year ... :eek::eek:
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Only a few variables, and this storm could skirt the Caribbean, then go into Florida, or up the coast into the Carolinas. Better not keep showing up that strong in future runs. If we get a hurricane that close this early, this season is going to be bad.
 
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
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ForsythSnow said:
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
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Do not like; do not like; do not like ... too many runs ... too many runs ... too many runs ... :(


and if...if...if...oftentimes the later runs are a bit more west on this kind of set up ... :mad:
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_47.png
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Wow!!!
 
The ECMWF apparently thinks 94L is going to have company before long... Yet another TC tries to form in the eastern MDR as 94L enters the SW Atlantic... This isn't supposed to happen in early July, if it somehow occurs, it would be the 3rd TC in the eastern MDR this year, and Im pretty sure that would set a record for any season wrt fastest to seeing 3 TCs form east of the Lesser Antilles after potentially setting a record for fastest to 2 TCs east of the Lesser Antilles (assuming 94L develops at least into a tropical depression which seems likely)

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Right on cue, as the upper level circulation anomalies associated with an MJO pulse begins to center itself over the eastern Pacific, it begins to light up in a big way, wouldn't be shocked if the Atlantic decided to follow suit in 2 weeks or so...
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Pretty impressive flare up in the western Caribbean this morning . Should drift harmlessly off to the west into Mexico
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