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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

snowlover91 said:
And based on this pressure is probably 959-960 when adjusted. This likely makes a run at cat 5 if an EWRC doesn’t hinder it. View attachment 49843
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Well it only has to close its eyewall and then it will really bomb off. Here's the latest VDM. Note the bolded is the eye radius in miles. Last one earlier was 8 and it's now 6 NM.

044
URNT12 KWBC 061211
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 06/11:47:04Z
B. 17.80 deg N 081.96 deg W
C. 700 MB 2780 m
D. 962 mb
E. 140 deg 26 kt
F. OPEN N
G. C6
H. 93 kt
I. 339 deg 5 nm 11:45:53Z
J. 069 deg 98 kt
K. 336 deg 8 nm 11:44:56Z
L. 84 kt
M. 159 deg 5 nm 11:48:16Z
N. 248 deg 89 kt
O. 158 deg 6 nm 11:48:28Z
P. 12 C / 3046 m
Q. 17 C / 3036 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 124 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA2 0426A DELTA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 98 KT 336 / 8 NM 11:44:56Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 339 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
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ForsythSnow said:
Well it only has to close its eyewall and then it will really bomb off. Here's the latest VDM. Note the bolded is the eye radius in miles. Last one earlier was 8 and it's now 6 NM.
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That's insane. We know what happened with wilma when her eye was that small but she was moving slower. Gonna be an interesting 24 hours.
 
I know most models clip the Yucatan and I think have shifted west some over the last couple of days, but don't be surprised to see this gain a little latitude and shoot the gap between Yucatan and Cuba. When models miss, it's usually to the N or NE due to strong TC pulling poleward.
 
What are the chances this thing makes landfall east of NOLA. With models seeming around NOLA and a little west, how much can they shift?
 
metwannabe said:
I know most models clip the Yucatan and I think have shifted west some over the last couple of days, but don't be surprised to see this gain a little latitude and shoot the gap between Yucatan and Cuba. When models miss, it's usually to the N or NE due to strong TC pulling poleward.
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I agree, I Think this could stay off the coast near the Yucatan. I could be wrong, but this time of the year with an incoming trof (as it approaches the US) they love to hook NE quickly.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree, I Think this could stay off the coast near the Yucatan. I could be wrong, but this time of the year with an incoming trof (as it approaches the US) they love to hook NE quickly.
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I’ve had the same feeling. Idk why, but i think landfall East of Nola


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Dawgdaze22 said:
What are the chances this thing makes landfall east of NOLA. With models seeming around NOLA and a little west, how much can they shift?
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Not very high at the moment. Consensus is tight except the HMON which is a worst-case scenario for NOLA. What should be worrying is that a lot of modeling intensifies in the Gulf still after land interaction.

That being said it is a very small storm at the moment and likely will be a major any moment.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree, I Think this could stay off the coast near the Yucatan. I could be wrong, but this time of the year with an incoming trof (as it approaches the US) they love to hook NE quickly.
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Isn't this kind of movement something that is generally climo-favored? I know Opal, Nate & Michael seemed to ease towards the East over time. Seems like there's some sort of weak block that extends out from Western FL into the central GOM that is wanting to force this thing farther west before adjusting East.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Isn't this kind of movement something that is generally climo-favored? I know Opal, Nate & Michael seemed to ease towards the East over time. Seems like there's some sort of weak block that extends out from Western FL into the central GOM that is wanting to force this thing farther west before adjusting East.
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That is me thinking out loud, typically these do trend/ease eastward with time (this time of the year). That doesn't mean it is going to happen that way for sure, because I could see a western LA landfall as well. Time will tell for sure.
 
deltadog03 said:
That is me thinking out loud, typically these do trend/ease eastward with time (this time of the year). That doesn't mean it is going to happen that way for sure, because I could see a western LA landfall as well. Time will tell for sure.
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That high over the mid Atlantic doesnt seem in any major hurry and drops SE instead of progressing east and out to sea. The 06z gefs seems pretty tightly clustered minus speed differences. I'm not sold on an east trend yet but climo says expect it at some point.
 
Shaggy said:
That high over the mid Atlantic doesnt seem in any major hurry and drops SE instead of progressing east and out to sea. The 06z gefs seems pretty tightly clustered minus speed differences. I'm not sold on an east trend yet but climo says expect it at some point.
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Climo and pretty much every gulf storm this year has done so. Had the euro taking the last one into Houston about 48 hours before landfall only for it to be in the MS/LA area.
 
deltadog03 said:
That is me thinking out loud, typically these do trend/ease eastward with time (this time of the year). That doesn't mean it is going to happen that way for sure, because I could see a western LA landfall as well. Time will tell for sure.
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Yeah, just in a vacuum I would expect that quick hook East.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Climo and pretty much every gulf storm this year has done so. Had the euro taking the last one into Houston about 48 hours before landfall only for it to be in the MS/LA area.
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I dont disagree. I'm simply looking at the high placement and movement on the GFS. If the high was going from central Pa to off cape cod I'd be 100% sold on the east correction. Instead the high drifts SE from PA to off Va/NC. That progression is key in how much east correction we get.......but this is just my opinion........maybe a met can interject some better understanding of the pattern?
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Climo and pretty much every gulf storm this year has done so. Had the euro taking the last one into Houston about 48 hours before landfall only for it to be in the MS/LA area.
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Climo of early Oct storms, especially in La Nina, also suggests tracks as far west as the TX/LA border are quite believable. So, for now I’m going with LA west of New Orleans since it has good model support.
 
GaWx said:
Climo of early Oct storms, especially in La Nina, also suggests tracks as far west as the TX/LA border are quite believable. So, for now I’m going with LA west of New Orleans since it has good model support.
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So we know the gfs has a bias of weakening ridges too soon. Does this apply during this time of year as well. I would think that bias would be amplified by the highs getting stronger as we head in on the cooler months?

Like I said I'm not buying into a climo type of east correction just yet.
 
HDelta has four major variables around its position later this week. The two major one are a ULL over Florida as depicted here on W2 and the midwest trough. If Delta becomes stronger which is forecasted on all models it will slow down. This would allow more timing for the MW trough to dig deeper into the gulf coast causing Delta to move further northeast. The ULL over Florida will prevent it from moving to far east leaving Mid LA to Mississippi in the potential landfall area. New Orleans in my observations will take a direct hit. It was lucky the past two times.

eefa118ec1e86b2dea57eb3e4b1e7fe4.jpg



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GaWx said:
Climo of early Oct storms, especially in La Nina, also suggests tracks as far west as the TX/LA border are quite believable. So, for now I’m going with LA west of New Orleans since it has good model support.
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Is that the good model support in the Victoria secret edition? I’ll hang up and take the answer. ?
 
I know Gamma is gone but there is still a diffuse circulation with some convective blowup, almost looks like Delta is being pulled that direction to gobble up the remains. You can see that on the 12z ICON too which gets pretty far west before the N turn
 
Eye is also now 5 NM wide. Absolutely insane.
109
URNT12 KWBC 061438
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 06/14:12:17Z
B. 18.12 deg N 082.56 deg W
C. 700 MB 2746 m
D. 957 mb
E. 110 deg 25 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C5
H. 102 kt
I. 134 deg 8 nm 14:10:30Z
J. 229 deg 90 kt
K. 134 deg 8 nm 14:10:19Z
L. 102 kt
M. 315 deg 3 nm 14:13:01Z
N. 051 deg 109 kt
O. 315 deg 6 nm 14:13:43Z
P. 12 C / 3065 m
Q. 19 C / 2728 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 1245 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0426A DELTA OB 26
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 315 / 6 NM 14:13:43Z
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So is NHC predicting a major hit for someone on the gulf coast I see they have it at 125 before that inland plot .. Weiss we had one more position intensity update point before landfall
 
Wow, went from a cat 1 to a cat 4 in less than 24 hours. Hope the Gulf Coast is ready, specially Louisiana. Big difference from it being forecasted as a cat 2 just yesterday when it makes landfall. This season looks like it's going out with a bang.
 
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