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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

The Gulf continues to interest me most in the short term though after seeing what Laura just did yeah the models are kind of blah but they've been blah quite a bit already

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Brent said:
The Gulf continues to interest me most in the short term though after seeing what Laura just did yeah the models are kind of blah but they've been blah quite a bit already

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Click to expand...
The models appear to do better with a large storm that's slower....like picking upon this one off Africa, but can't see the homegrown popups.
 
Not sure if we're lucky enough to avoid another major hurricane hitting the US again in 2020. So much going on right now.
 
Run a loop of the GFS-para after hr 100 through the end (over the Atlantic), something tells me they got some bugs to work still.... it literally shows Paulette, Renee, 95L (future Sally) all looping at some point, with Renee making a couple of loops. Of course, who knows, models seem to be having a difficult time resolving so many tropical entities
 
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Looking at the models right now, it just seems to me that it favors recurving for systems that don’t reach the islands. There just seems now to be too many troughs coming east to allow much of a threat to the east coast unless one just has absolutely perfect timing. The concern right now with troughs coming East to me seem to be for systems that reach the islands, staying on a more southerly track and going into the Gulf and getting picked up by a trough and going into Alabama or the Florida panhandle.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the models right now, it just seems to me that it favors recurving for systems that don’t reach the islands. There just seems now to be too many troughs coming east to allow much of a threat to the east coast unless one just has absolutely perfect timing. The concern right now with troughs coming East to me seem to be for systems that reach the islands, staying on a more southerly track and going into the Gulf and getting picked up by a trough and going into Alabama or the Florida panhandle.
Click to expand...
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
 
tennessee storm said:
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
Click to expand...

So basically an extended fall into spring.


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tennessee storm said:
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
Click to expand...

I would love to see the data on that. Where could I find it?


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